Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Both New England and Arizona lost, and now every team will have at least 3 losses this year. Both teams have fallen back in their playoff chances as well, with both having previously been over 99% likely to make it. They're still in good position, but Arizona is not in the runaway position they once were.

The Rams won a huge shutout, which inflated their strength quite a bit. They're still just barely alive in the playoff hunt.

I mentioned that Minnesota was not actually eliminated from their division on Thursday despite my numbers, because a future Green Bay-Detroit tie could have kept them alive. But Green Bay's win yesterday actually eliminates them from the division. Unfortunately, I now have Tampa Bay allegedly eliminated, but in the same situation. If enough games go the right way, a tie between Atlanta and New Orleans in week 16 could keep Tampa alive. In short, next year's simulations will include ties.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	89.309	95.645	87.893	51.661	29.966	16.817
GB	9-3	0.682	71.364	95.809	83.162	50.071	29.051	15.937
BAL	7-5	0.660	19.101	37.908	21.810	11.255	5.952	3.169
IND	8-4	0.658	94.940	95.504	62.755	33.701	17.906	9.494
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.285	76.032	55.974	30.886	16.561	8.644
PHI	9-3	0.646	87.440	92.454	73.191	39.836	21.008	10.700
BUF	7-5	0.626	9.336	26.629	14.836	7.239	3.623	1.802
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.253	97.503	83.703	42.502	19.934	9.720
KC	7-5	0.616	2.364	48.337	24.832	11.685	5.637	2.730
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.060	15.896	7.581	3.354	1.522	0.689
MIA	5-6	0.581	1.354	8.728	4.151	1.844	0.832	0.374
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.895	91.545	68.032	31.192	13.743	6.030
SD	8-4	0.563	7.384	54.894	27.399	11.573	4.928	2.128
DET	8-4	0.561	28.634	74.566	44.482	19.102	8.282	3.494
DAL	8-4	0.556	12.560	49.923	26.691	11.333	4.852	2.026
PIT	7-5	0.540	14.930	30.848	15.281	5.986	2.391	0.978
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	58.106	73.337	43.281	16.818	6.404	2.553
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.863	14.771	6.479	2.382	0.903	0.349
SF	7-5	0.512	2.809	18.209	8.393	3.161	1.232	0.462
NO	5-7	0.509	54.266	54.266	22.247	8.260	3.108	1.156
ATL	5-7	0.485	43.808	43.808	16.936	5.947	2.109	0.737
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.254	0.089	0.027	0.009	0.003
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.002	1.166	0.343	0.090	0.025	0.007
NYG	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.927	1.927	0.448	0.091	0.019	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]