2014-11-04

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 9, Final

New England over Arizona

Indianapolis nearly took over the AFC lead with their victory Monday night. They're actually more likely to win the Superbowl than New England, and would be favored over them, but have just slightly less of a chance of winning the AFC, which is what I use to declare my projection each week.

I just noticed my "AFC=Red, NFC=Blue" color scheme is completely backwards with respect to team colors this week, though New England could be red too I guess.

Next week I may get to start chasing whether or not teams are truly eliminated when my hundreds of millions of simulations never show them making the playoffs even once. The Jets could lose and fall far enough to need a tiebreaker scenario to have any shot at their division, and Oakland could do the same against Denver. Jacksonville will be safe for another week, since Indianapolis only has 6 wins and a bye this week.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
KC5-30.62733.75765.38045.27324.62213.2377.370
BAL5-40.62718.47840.11524.16012.9046.8893.834
IND6-30.62592.93393.92966.53536.21319.57910.869
NE7-20.61972.23686.28568.69236.90019.67710.801
PHI6-20.59967.17185.61765.49935.37718.9539.546
DET6-20.59068.65988.04369.43236.73719.2459.517
ARI7-10.57680.52595.53183.25543.27121.75910.435
DEN6-20.57560.38280.25159.18328.65113.6536.864
MIA4-40.5699.75223.79613.4626.4093.0501.516
DAL6-30.56931.73370.30244.78422.22511.0885.237
GB5-30.55625.21153.21932.08215.3947.4733.433
SEA5-30.55515.01550.40629.91914.3766.9353.183
PIT6-30.55241.26964.33442.25119.2628.7004.174
NO4-40.55177.78878.25640.49319.0839.0904.130
BUF5-30.54918.01237.00720.8979.4894.3092.052
SD5-40.5415.86120.29710.4444.6972.1030.985
CLE5-30.53414.52829.67916.2997.1343.1061.433
HOU4-50.5196.94414.4446.7932.9101.2420.555
SF4-40.5184.11925.25412.9685.7072.5441.073
CIN5-2-10.51425.72544.28025.95010.7914.4491.966
CHI4-40.4705.02416.3537.7973.0781.2340.464
ATL2-60.4489.4809.7003.8311.4190.5340.190
NYG3-50.4410.8244.6951.8880.6880.2570.090
WAS3-60.4370.2721.1320.4330.1570.0580.020
MIN4-50.4301.1076.9502.7590.9760.3530.120
CAR3-5-10.38512.41712.7364.2741.3390.4260.128
TEN2-60.3680.1200.1980.0600.0170.0050.002
STL3-50.3680.3411.4800.4900.1460.0440.013
TB1-70.3430.3150.3250.0960.0260.0070.002
OAK0-80.3420.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
NYJ1-80.3230.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
JAC1-80.3030.0040.0040.0010.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]

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