Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 9, Final

New England over Arizona

Indianapolis nearly took over the AFC lead with their victory Monday night. They're actually more likely to win the Superbowl than New England, and would be favored over them, but have just slightly less of a chance of winning the AFC, which is what I use to declare my projection each week.

I just noticed my "AFC=Red, NFC=Blue" color scheme is completely backwards with respect to team colors this week, though New England could be red too I guess.

Next week I may get to start chasing whether or not teams are truly eliminated when my hundreds of millions of simulations never show them making the playoffs even once. The Jets could lose and fall far enough to need a tiebreaker scenario to have any shot at their division, and Oakland could do the same against Denver. Jacksonville will be safe for another week, since Indianapolis only has 6 wins and a bye this week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	5-3	0.627	33.757	65.380	45.273	24.622	13.237	7.370
BAL	5-4	0.627	18.478	40.115	24.160	12.904	6.889	3.834
IND	6-3	0.625	92.933	93.929	66.535	36.213	19.579	10.869
NE	7-2	0.619	72.236	86.285	68.692	36.900	19.677	10.801
PHI	6-2	0.599	67.171	85.617	65.499	35.377	18.953	9.546
DET	6-2	0.590	68.659	88.043	69.432	36.737	19.245	9.517
ARI	7-1	0.576	80.525	95.531	83.255	43.271	21.759	10.435
DEN	6-2	0.575	60.382	80.251	59.183	28.651	13.653	6.864
MIA	4-4	0.569	9.752	23.796	13.462	6.409	3.050	1.516
DAL	6-3	0.569	31.733	70.302	44.784	22.225	11.088	5.237
GB	5-3	0.556	25.211	53.219	32.082	15.394	7.473	3.433
SEA	5-3	0.555	15.015	50.406	29.919	14.376	6.935	3.183
PIT	6-3	0.552	41.269	64.334	42.251	19.262	8.700	4.174
NO	4-4	0.551	77.788	78.256	40.493	19.083	9.090	4.130
BUF	5-3	0.549	18.012	37.007	20.897	9.489	4.309	2.052
SD	5-4	0.541	5.861	20.297	10.444	4.697	2.103	0.985
CLE	5-3	0.534	14.528	29.679	16.299	7.134	3.106	1.433
HOU	4-5	0.519	6.944	14.444	6.793	2.910	1.242	0.555
SF	4-4	0.518	4.119	25.254	12.968	5.707	2.544	1.073
CIN	5-2-1	0.514	25.725	44.280	25.950	10.791	4.449	1.966
CHI	4-4	0.470	5.024	16.353	7.797	3.078	1.234	0.464
ATL	2-6	0.448	9.480	9.700	3.831	1.419	0.534	0.190
NYG	3-5	0.441	0.824	4.695	1.888	0.688	0.257	0.090
WAS	3-6	0.437	0.272	1.132	0.433	0.157	0.058	0.020
MIN	4-5	0.430	1.107	6.950	2.759	0.976	0.353	0.120
CAR	3-5-1	0.385	12.417	12.736	4.274	1.339	0.426	0.128
TEN	2-6	0.368	0.120	0.198	0.060	0.017	0.005	0.002
STL	3-5	0.368	0.341	1.480	0.490	0.146	0.044	0.013
TB	1-7	0.343	0.315	0.325	0.096	0.026	0.007	0.002
OAK	0-8	0.342	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	1-8	0.323	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
JAC	1-8	0.303	0.004	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]