Seattle locked in a first-round bye this week, making them nearly a 50% favorite to win the NFC. New England's fortunes fell a bit, because the strongest possible wildcard team - Baltimore - got the final spot. They're still the favorite, but only won the AFC in 35% of simulations, against 42% last week.
There are 36 possible Superbowl matchups. The odds of each one happening can be found by multiplying the two teams' chances of appearing in the game (the Semi column), assuming you pick teams from opposite conferences. The least likely Superbowl matchup would be Carolina vs Cincinnati, with about an 0.0064% chance of that happening. Even my most likely scenario is only about 16% likely to happen, though.
With only 11 games left, I like to pick who I'm rooting for in each game. Sometimes it's a team for whom I have a secondary rooting interest, and sometimes I'm just hoping for an interesting matchup, i.e., the Harbaugh bowl. I'll just go with the first day of games for now.
Arizona at Carolina - This is a tough one. It'd be cool to see a team actually host a Superbowl in which they are playing, but I'd also like to see what the NFL would do afte a 7-8-1 team wins the title. As a tiebreaker, a St. Louis native probably shouldn't root for a Bidwell-owned team, so I guess it's Carolina. And I think that's probably who will win, too, playing at home against a 3rd-string QB.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh - I'll be rooting for Pittsburgh, but I think Baltimore's going to win it. The teams split their 2 games this year, with the home team winning each time. Pittsburgh's other 4 losses were to pretty bad teams, though, destroying my confidence in them.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 12-4 | 0.788 | + | + | + | 76.395 | 46.501 | 28.279 |
| NE | 12-4 | 0.752 | + | + | + | 59.165 | 35.762 | 18.467 |
| GB | 12-4 | 0.730 | + | + | + | 61.598 | 29.954 | 15.954 |
| BAL | 10-6 | 0.712 | - | + | 59.852 | 26.917 | 14.961 | 6.995 |
| DAL | 12-4 | 0.699 | + | + | 61.235 | 28.282 | 12.746 | 6.306 |
| DEN | 12-4 | 0.692 | + | + | + | 58.023 | 26.695 | 11.850 |
| KC | 9-7 | 0.664 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IND | 11-5 | 0.656 | + | + | 61.481 | 26.446 | 11.593 | 4.701 |
| BUF | 9-7 | 0.645 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| HOU | 9-7 | 0.639 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PHI | 10-6 | 0.624 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| PIT | 11-5 | 0.624 | + | + | 40.148 | 17.070 | 6.921 | 2.587 |
| DET | 11-5 | 0.595 | - | + | 38.765 | 11.014 | 4.590 | 1.766 |
| CIN | 10-5-1 | 0.544 | - | + | 38.519 | 12.379 | 4.068 | 1.230 |
| MIA | 8-8 | 0.529 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 11-5 | 0.527 | - | + | 59.893 | 15.239 | 4.546 | 1.462 |
| SD | 9-7 | 0.500 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SF | 8-8 | 0.462 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 6-10 | 0.462 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | 7-9 | 0.460 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NO | 7-9 | 0.458 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| STL | 6-10 | 0.434 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ATL | 6-10 | 0.433 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAR | 7-8-1 | 0.427 | + | + | 40.107 | 7.471 | 1.664 | 0.402 |
| CLE | 7-9 | 0.412 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 5-11 | 0.274 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 4-12 | 0.261 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WAS | 4-12 | 0.246 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TB | 2-14 | 0.237 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAC | 3-13 | 0.182 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TEN | 2-14 | 0.164 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| OAK | 3-13 | 0.150 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)
First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)
[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]
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