Almost the Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web V

As the proud winner of Almost the Easiest Superbowl Contest on the Web IV, let me just say there's no reason you should go enter this year's contest at Collector's Crack, the Big Old 5. Last year I picked the winner, the loser, got the points tiebreaker within 1, and the number of turnovers exactly correct. I've already put in my completely accurate prediction for this year. But, on the off chance my psychic skills don't prevail this time around, you could go enter, I guess. I don't think this year's prizes have been announced yet, so here's part of what I won last year, to give you a flavor for what's at stake.

1996 Laser View - Inscriptions #8 Jim Everett #0248/3100
2006 SP Authentic - Rookie Authentics Signature #255 Tarvaris Jackson
2013 Panini Limited - Monikers Silver #187 Nick Kasa #051/299

Get your entry in before the first game on Saturday, and write a semi-sarcastic promotion post such as this one on your blog to gain a bonus shot at the door prize.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 17, Final

Seattle over New England

Seattle locked in a first-round bye this week, making them nearly a 50% favorite to win the NFC. New England's fortunes fell a bit, because the strongest possible wildcard team - Baltimore - got the final spot. They're still the favorite, but only won the AFC in 35% of simulations, against 42% last week.

There are 36 possible Superbowl matchups. The odds of each one happening can be found by multiplying the two teams' chances of appearing in the game (the Semi column), assuming you pick teams from opposite conferences. The least likely Superbowl matchup would be Carolina vs Cincinnati, with about an 0.0064% chance of that happening. Even my most likely scenario is only about 16% likely to happen, though.

With only 11 games left, I like to pick who I'm rooting for in each game. Sometimes it's a team for whom I have a secondary rooting interest, and sometimes I'm just hoping for an interesting matchup, i.e., the Harbaugh bowl. I'll just go with the first day of games for now.

Arizona at Carolina - This is a tough one. It'd be cool to see a team actually host a Superbowl in which they are playing, but I'd also like to see what the NFL would do afte a 7-8-1 team wins the title. As a tiebreaker, a St. Louis native probably shouldn't root for a Bidwell-owned team, so I guess it's Carolina. And I think that's probably who will win, too, playing at home against a 3rd-string QB.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh - I'll be rooting for Pittsburgh, but I think Baltimore's going to win it. The teams split their 2 games this year, with the home team winning each time. Pittsburgh's other 4 losses were to pretty bad teams, though, destroying my confidence in them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-4	0.788	+	+	+	76.395	46.501	28.279
NE	12-4	0.752	+	+	+	59.165	35.762	18.467
GB	12-4	0.730	+	+	+	61.598	29.954	15.954
BAL	10-6	0.712	-	+	59.852	26.917	14.961	6.995
DAL	12-4	0.699	+	+	61.235	28.282	12.746	6.306
DEN	12-4	0.692	+	+	+	58.023	26.695	11.850
KC	9-7	0.664	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	11-5	0.656	+	+	61.481	26.446	11.593	4.701
BUF	9-7	0.645	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	9-7	0.639	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	10-6	0.624	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	11-5	0.624	+	+	40.148	17.070	6.921	2.587
DET	11-5	0.595	-	+	38.765	11.014	4.590	1.766
CIN	10-5-1	0.544	-	+	38.519	12.379	4.068	1.230
MIA	8-8	0.529	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	11-5	0.527	-	+	59.893	15.239	4.546	1.462
SD	9-7	0.500	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	8-8	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-9	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	7-9	0.458	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-10	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	6-10	0.433	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	7-8-1	0.427	+	+	40.107	7.471	1.664	0.402
CLE	7-9	0.412	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-11	0.274	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-12	0.261	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	4-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-14	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-13	0.182	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-14	0.164	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-13	0.150	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

The Division I-A (FCS) title game isn't until January 10, so the only games played this week were 13 bowl games involving 26 FBS teams. Marshall beat Northern Illinois to climb to #5 from #7, but my top 4 remained the same as they were at the close of the regular season. This is the second week I've mentioned Northern Illinois; last week I pointed out they were at the moment ahead of Ole Miss. Now they're behind them again, as Ole Miss and Arizona State are actually now tied at #15. Navy and Western Kentucky are also tied, up to #41 from #55-56 last week due to their bowl wins. There were many teams that moved at least a few spots due to strength of schedule changes, but the lowest team affected this week is new #120 UNLV, who swapped spots with now #119 Massachusetts.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Ohio State	12-1
4	Oregon	12-1
5	Marshall	13-1
6	Boise State	11-2
7	TCU	11-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Georgia Tech	10-3
10	Missouri	10-3
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Michigan State	10-2
13	Mississippi State	10-2
14	Arizona	10-3
15	Arizona State	10-3
15	Ole Miss	9-3
17	Northern Illinois	11-3
18	UCLA	9-3
19	Georgia	9-3
20	Utah	9-4
21	Utah State	10-4
22	Clemson	9-3
23	Colorado State	10-3
24	USC	9-4
25	Kansas State	9-3
26	Air Force	10-3
27	Nebraska	9-4
28	Auburn	8-4
29	Memphis	10-3
30	Louisville	9-3
31	Louisiana Tech	9-5
32	LSU	8-4
33	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
34	Cincinnati	9-4
35	UCF	9-4
36	North Carolina State	8-5
37	Minnesota	8-4
38	Duke	9-4
39	Rutgers	8-5
40	Oklahoma	8-4
41	Navy	8-5
41	Western Kentucky	8-5
43	Washington	8-5
44	Georgia Southern	9-3
45	Toledo	8-4
46	Texas A&M	7-5
47	BYU	8-5
48	Notre Dame	7-5
49	Maryland	7-5
50	Virginia Tech	7-6
51	Rice	8-5
52	East Carolina	8-4
53	Stanford	7-5
54	South Carolina	7-6
55	West Virginia	7-5
56	Boston College	7-6
57	Iowa	7-5
58	Western Michigan	8-5
59	Penn State	7-6
60	Bowling Green	8-6
61	Tennessee	6-6
62	North Carolina	6-7
63	Arkansas	6-6
64	Nevada	7-6
65	Florida	6-5
66	Illinois	6-7
67	Miami (FL)	6-7
68	UTEP	7-6
69	Arkansas State	7-5
70	Houston	7-5
71	Central Michigan	7-6
72	Texas	6-6
73	Pittsburgh	6-6
74	Oklahoma State	6-6
75	Appalachian State	7-5
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Middle Tennessee	6-6
78	Virginia	5-7
79	Old Dominion	6-6
80	UAB	6-6
81	San Diego State	6-6
82	Fresno State	6-8
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Michigan	5-7
85	Temple	6-6
86	Kentucky	5-7
87	California	5-7
88	South Alabama	6-7
89	Ohio	6-6
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Wyoming	4-8
94	Texas Tech	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	South Florida	4-8
97	Akron	5-7
98	Florida International	4-8
99	New Mexico	4-8
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-8
102	UTSA	4-8
103	Washington State	3-9
104	Purdue	3-9
105	Hawaii	4-9
106	Southern Miss	3-9
107	Vanderbilt	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Tulane	3-9
110	Wake Forest	3-9
111	Kansas	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Florida Atlantic	3-9
115	Iowa State	2-10
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	Massachusetts	3-9
120	UNLV	2-11
121	Connecticut	2-10
122	Kent State	2-9
123	Miami (OH)	2-10
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State
Week 17 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over New England

Denver's stumble against Cincinnati has clinched homefield advantage for New England, and a playoff spot for Cincinnati. Now the AFC North, NFC South, and NFC North will all decided a single game (each) to end the season. The other division in play, the NFC West, won't have the two contenders facing off, but will have the games at the same time to prevent either team from resting or having a meaningless game.

I'm a little surprised that the Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh game has been chosen as the Sunday Night game. It'll probably be a better game than Atlanta vs Carolina, but that one has the typical "Winner makes the playoffs, loser goes home" setup of past years. Still, it would be hard to justify putting two teams with losing records into prime time with the availability of flexible scheduling.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-4	0.756	87.314	+	93.814	63.390	39.358	23.122
NE	12-3	0.754	+	+	+	65.155	42.470	24.139
GB	11-4	0.714	60.288	+	82.305	48.412	26.096	13.963
BAL	9-6	0.689	-	45.353	27.466	11.541	6.613	3.245
DAL	11-4	0.657	+	+	54.356	25.725	11.867	5.586
DEN	11-4	0.639	+	+	97.402	52.953	22.089	9.624
KC	8-7	0.635	-	2.000	1.092	0.395	0.203	0.087
HOU	8-7	0.627	-	13.766	7.395	2.618	1.320	0.558
IND	10-5	0.625	+	+	54.303	23.051	10.182	4.293
BUF	8-7	0.625	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	11-4	0.622	39.712	+	66.898	31.536	13.043	5.659
PHI	9-6	0.612	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-5	0.605	54.151	+	48.305	21.227	8.573	3.448
CIN	10-4-1	0.565	45.849	+	47.175	18.586	6.756	2.458
MIA	8-7	0.556	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	11-4	0.534	12.686	+	64.097	20.845	6.877	2.411
SD	9-6	0.525	-	38.881	16.861	4.473	1.793	0.589
ATL	6-9	0.491	62.479	62.479	26.795	7.770	2.290	0.716
NYG	6-9	0.477	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-9	0.466	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	7-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-9	0.452	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8	0.436	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-8-1	0.367	37.521	37.521	11.735	2.322	0.468	0.101
CHI	5-10	0.289	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	4-11	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-13	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-12	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-13	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)
First to clinch homefield advantage throughout the playoffs: New England (Week 16, Final)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Seattle over New England

Seattle's thorough defeat of Arizona brought them up to be the top team in the league, and now I project them to be the first team to repeat since the 2004-2005 Patriots. But, they team they'd have to beat is the 2014 Patriots, assuming all goes as I project.

Everyone else says Green Bay is in now, due to their win and Dallas's win, so I may never know how they could have missed the playoffs.

The NFC spots are all accounted for with the exception of the NFC South champion, with some seeding yet to be determined. The AFC will have a more interesting final week, with a few teams vying for 1 or 2 final spots, depending on the Cincinnati result tonight.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	11-4	0.756	87.312	+	93.811	63.378	39.354	22.932
NE	12-3	0.754	+	+	+	65.614	41.795	23.759
GB	11-4	0.714	60.288	+	82.304	48.398	26.085	13.826
BAL	9-6	0.689	-	55.206	32.539	14.654	7.908	3.878
DAL	11-4	0.657	+	+	54.361	25.733	11.871	5.527
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	99.126	55.158	24.064	10.924
KC	8-7	0.635	-	2.004	1.074	0.412	0.199	0.087
HOU	8-7	0.626	-	13.764	7.256	2.724	1.296	0.548
IND	10-5	0.625	+	+	52.958	22.075	9.665	4.076
BUF	8-7	0.625	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	11-4	0.622	39.712	+	66.897	31.543	13.050	5.593
PHI	9-6	0.612	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-5	0.605	55.870	+	50.748	20.820	8.451	3.397
MIA	8-7	0.556	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	44.130	90.137	40.075	13.821	4.900	1.707
ARI	11-4	0.534	12.688	+	64.106	20.848	6.878	2.375
SD	9-6	0.525	-	38.889	16.224	4.720	1.721	0.566
ATL	6-9	0.491	62.472	62.472	26.784	7.775	2.294	0.706
NYG	6-9	0.477	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-9	0.466	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	7-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-9	0.454	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-9	0.452	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-8	0.436	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	6-8-1	0.367	37.528	37.528	11.736	2.325	0.467	0.100
CHI	5-10	0.289	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	4-11	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-13	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-12	0.236	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-13	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	3-12	0.192	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first round bye: New England (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Seattle

My simulations now show that Green Bay has clinched, though other sites do not. I can only assume this means I have a tiebreaker setup wrong. I tried to construct a scenario in which they would miss the playoffs, but I couldn't.

First, I had them lose their next 2 games, to finish 10-6. Philadelphia has to win next week to go 10-6 as well, otherwise Green Bay would definitely be in. Against Philadelphia directly, Green Bay would win on conference record, 7-5 to 6-6. Against Philadelphia and Seattle both at 10-6, Seattle would win to get the #5 seed, but then we're back to the Green Bay vs Philadelphia scenario for #6.

So, that must mean it requires Dallas to be 10-6 as well as Philadelphia, so that the Eagles win the division. Either Seattle will win a game to clinch #5 (or better), or will also be 10-6. Then, they'd clinch #6 based on conference record, and it would be down to Dallas vs Green Bay for #6. Here are the tiebreakers:

1. Head to Head (did not play)
2. Conference Winning Percentage (both 7-5)
3. Common Games Winning Percentage, minimum of 4 (both 3-1)
4. Strength of Victory

I'm pretty sure Green Bay's current .443 SOV can't be beat by Dallas, which is at .406. Maybe this is a case of making no assumptions of SOV by default until the last week, on the part of the other websites. Or, maybe I've got something wrong. If you've read this far, and can see how the Packers could miss the playoffs, I'd love to hear from you.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.936	61.694	37.369	22.767
BAL	9-5	0.706	27.000	70.500	42.100	20.760	11.205	6.312
SEA	10-4	0.704	49.643	99.257	83.256	49.971	29.293	15.077
GB	10-4	0.681	51.045	+	79.985	45.684	25.089	12.250
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	58.248	28.929	14.097	7.508
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.527	50.696	22.305	11.316
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.602	18.640	8.029	3.681	1.838
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	14.847	7.010	3.057	1.351	0.647
PHI	9-6	0.612	8.237	8.237	3.881	1.780	0.829	0.343
DET	10-4	0.606	48.955	+	72.093	34.800	15.477	6.337
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.357	+	82.170	36.616	16.593	6.754
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	2.979	1.340	0.469	0.214	0.096
DAL	10-4	0.596	91.763	92.506	46.982	21.015	9.425	3.766
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.709	70.893	32.736	12.284	4.841	2.114
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.292	74.830	30.644	10.436	3.681	1.459
SD	9-6	0.525	-	30.349	11.818	3.648	1.257	0.471
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-8	0.482	57.411	57.411	19.241	6.464	2.180	0.648
ATL	5-9	0.462	28.829	28.829	9.146	2.905	0.930	0.261
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	7-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.362	13.761	13.761	3.246	0.766	0.183	0.038
CHI	5-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	4-11	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-13	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

With 5 bowl games, 2 FCS Semi-Finals, and the Divisions II and III championships...nothing changed in the top 14 teams. At #15, Northern Illinois can now say they rank above a team once thought to be headed to the playoff (Ole Miss) by at least one nut on the internet.

The Division II title was won by Colorado State-Pueblo over Minnesota State, who as we all know, was once coached by our favorite college coach of all time, Hayden Fox. Division III was won by University of Wisconsin-Whitewater, over Mount Union. When I rank all 720 teams, UW-Whitewater actually comes out on top now, with a 15-0 record.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Ohio State	12-1
4	Oregon	12-1
5	Boise State	11-2
6	TCU	11-1
7	Marshall	12-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Georgia Tech	10-3
10	Missouri	10-3
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Mississippi State	10-2
13	Michigan State	10-2
14	Arizona	10-3
15	Northern Illinois	11-2
16	Ole Miss	9-3
17	UCLA	9-3
18	Georgia	9-3
19	Utah State	10-4
20	Utah	9-4
21	Colorado State	10-3
22	Clemson	9-3
23	Kansas State	9-3
24	Nebraska	9-3
25	Air Force	10-3
26	Arizona State	9-3
27	Auburn	8-4
28	Louisville	9-3
29	LSU	8-4
30	Louisiana-Lafayette	9-4
31	Cincinnati	9-3
32	UCF	9-3
33	USC	8-4
34	Minnesota	8-4
35	Duke	9-3
36	Memphis	9-3
37	Oklahoma	8-4
38	Louisiana Tech	8-5
39	Washington	8-5
40	Toledo	8-4
41	Georgia Southern	9-3
42	BYU	8-4
43	Texas A&M	7-5
44	Maryland	7-5
45	Notre Dame	7-5
46	North Carolina State	7-5
47	Stanford	7-5
48	East Carolina	8-4
49	West Virginia	7-5
50	Rutgers	7-5
51	Boston College	7-5
52	Iowa	7-5
53	Western Michigan	8-5
54	Bowling Green	8-6
55	Navy	7-5
56	Western Kentucky	7-5
57	Tennessee	6-6
58	North Carolina	6-6
59	Arkansas	6-6
60	Nevada	7-6
61	Miami (FL)	6-6
62	Florida	6-5
63	Illinois	6-6
64	Rice	7-5
65	Virginia Tech	6-6
66	South Carolina	6-6
67	Arkansas State	7-5
68	Central Michigan	7-5
69	UTEP	7-6
70	Houston	7-5
71	Texas	6-6
72	Oklahoma State	6-6
73	Pittsburgh	6-6
74	Penn State	6-6
75	Appalachian State	7-5
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Virginia	5-7
78	Middle Tennessee	6-6
79	San Diego State	6-5
80	Fresno State	6-7
81	Old Dominion	6-6
82	UAB	6-6
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Michigan	5-7
85	Kentucky	5-7
86	California	5-7
87	Temple	6-6
88	Ohio	6-6
89	South Alabama	6-7
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Wyoming	4-8
94	Texas Tech	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	New Mexico	4-8
97	South Florida	4-8
98	Akron	5-7
99	Florida International	4-8
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-8
102	Purdue	3-9
103	Washington State	3-9
104	Hawaii	4-9
105	UTSA	4-8
106	Vanderbilt	3-9
107	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
108	Southern Miss	3-9
109	Kansas	3-9
110	Tulane	3-9
111	Wake Forest	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Iowa State	2-10
115	Florida Atlantic	3-9
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	UNLV	2-11
120	Massachusetts	3-9
121	Connecticut	2-10
122	Kent State	2-9
123	Miami (OH)	2-10
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State
Week 16 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Thursday

New England over Seattle

Go figure, a game between 2 teams that were both 2-12 had virtually no effect on the rankings. The Division and Playoff percentages changed by at most about 0.01% on the teams still in the playoffs. Maybe I'll track draft position next year, in which the Jaguars certainly lost ground last night.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.909	61.419	37.142	22.653
BAL	9-5	0.706	26.983	73.904	44.150	21.813	11.746	6.628
SEA	10-4	0.703	49.701	94.796	80.685	48.576	28.428	14.616
GB	10-4	0.681	51.026	96.999	78.032	44.578	24.508	11.954
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	57.845	28.739	13.978	7.453
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.495	50.427	22.160	11.259
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.861	18.775	8.094	3.709	1.855
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	17.487	8.346	3.611	1.589	0.764
PHI	9-5	0.616	40.597	45.441	21.707	10.098	4.781	1.996
DET	10-4	0.606	48.974	94.093	69.008	33.334	14.893	6.091
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.299	+	82.112	36.829	16.707	6.799
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	4.278	1.933	0.682	0.306	0.137
DAL	10-4	0.596	59.403	68.671	36.500	16.366	7.355	2.937
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.715	72.224	32.964	12.362	4.865	2.131
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	0.052	0.021	0.006	0.003	0.001
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.302	78.334	31.723	10.775	3.796	1.510
SD	8-6	0.520	-	17.861	6.841	2.072	0.706	0.261
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-8	0.482	57.394	57.394	19.432	6.514	2.204	0.653
ATL	5-9	0.462	28.836	28.836	9.235	2.928	0.938	0.263
SF	7-7	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.363	13.770	13.770	3.288	0.776	0.185	0.038
CHI	5-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-13	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]

Yet Another Sports Card Info Contest Win

I just won one of the weekly contests from Sports Card Info back in August, which was my first baseball card win among the many contests I've won there, and now I have my first football card win. And it's gloriously shiny.

2006 Bowman Chrome - Rookie Autographs #228 Jason Avant

My football card collection is rather minor compared to my baseball cards, so thanks to a few contest wins it's got a relatively large percentage of autographs in it. Jason now plays on my favorite AFC team, the Kansas City Chiefs, who are still considered the favorite AFC team in St. Louis by the TV broadcast schedulers, so I get to watch them almost as often as the Rams. He's only seen limited action so far this season for KC, but I say he catches a 60 yard TD against Pittsburgh this week.

Thanks once again to Sports Card Info for having contest after contest, especially this one.

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over Seattle

Yesterday I got a comment asking about the ridiculous looking ranking of having Dallas below Houston, despite the 3-game difference in record, and Dallas having actually beaten Houston.

To address the second point first, Dallas won by 3 in overtime, so that's practically a tie in terms of using head-to-head to determine who is better.

As for the Strength column, that's determined purely by points scored and points allowed, which is basically Bill James' baseball formula for determined a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The theory goes that a team that allows about as many points as it scores will be about .500 in its future games, regardless of if it managed to pull off a bunch of small wins and few huge losses, or vice versa. That's why 7-7 San Francisco is listed at .460, but 7-7 Miami is at .554, and 7-7 Houston is at .601. A team could even be 1-13 at this point, but if they won a game 62-0 and lost the rest 2-0, they'd be near the top. The actual formula I use is somewhat complex, involving exponents, league-wide points per game, and regressing to .500 based on how far into the season it is, but there is a simplification that can be made for purposes of comparing 2 teams: the higher a team's pf/pa ratio, the higher their strength will be, where pf = points for, and pa = points against.

Houston has scored 324 point against 277 allowed. Dallas has scored 381, but allowed 328. That gives Houston a slightly higher ratio of pf/pa, and the corollary to that is that their strength is at .601, where Dallas is at .596. Houston's points have not been distributed as favorably for them, though, so they've won 3 less games than Dallas. The meaning of those strengths in my projections is that Houston would win 50.52% of the simulations if they played again. That's just barely an advantage.

One caveat to mention is that this is supposed to represent an average of the teams over their last 14 games, so the average Houston lineup over the last 14 games would be slightly favored to win over the average Dallas lineup. This doesn't mean the Houston lineup with the 3rd string QB would be favored to win this week against the mostly-intact Dallas lineup. It does mean that Arizona, even at 11-3, is likely even worse than their 11th-best ranking, since they're now on QB number 3 as well.

Hopefully all that made some sense. I realize I did a little hand-waving to get from pf/pa to strength, but I didn't want to post a full screen worth of LaTeX equations to show my work.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.917	61.429	37.150	22.659
BAL	9-5	0.706	26.987	73.909	44.150	21.811	11.748	6.630
SEA	10-4	0.703	49.701	94.796	80.685	48.578	28.434	14.621
GB	10-4	0.681	51.029	96.997	78.036	44.581	24.509	11.958
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	57.805	28.714	13.966	7.448
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.504	50.432	22.159	11.254
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.861	18.771	8.091	3.710	1.855
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	17.482	8.350	3.611	1.588	0.763
PHI	9-5	0.616	40.604	45.447	21.706	10.103	4.782	2.000
DET	10-4	0.606	48.971	94.094	69.010	33.329	14.891	6.091
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.299	+	82.116	36.824	16.705	6.794
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	4.283	1.937	0.684	0.306	0.138
DAL	10-4	0.596	59.396	68.666	36.497	16.368	7.354	2.936
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.707	72.212	32.967	12.365	4.864	2.127
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	0.052	0.020	0.006	0.003	0.001
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.307	78.341	31.733	10.784	3.800	1.510
SD	8-6	0.520	-	17.859	6.846	2.073	0.706	0.262
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-8	0.482	57.403	57.403	19.430	6.513	2.203	0.653
ATL	5-9	0.462	28.830	28.830	9.234	2.929	0.938	0.263
SF	7-7	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.363	13.767	13.767	3.286	0.774	0.184	0.038
CHI	5-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-12	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over Seattle

Seattle took over the NFC, despite currently being a game behind in their division. They're just about even-money to win the NFC West, and that's not accounting for Arizona being down to their third string QB. In the AFC, New England, Indianapolis, and Denver all clinched their divisions, and the AFC North will likely account for the other 3 playoff teams. The 6 AFC teams could actually be locked up by the end of week 16, though with seeding still at stake in the final week. I'm sort of rooting for that, just to see if the NFL would really put the Carolina-Atlanta game in the prime time slot if it is likely to be the only remaining game decide a playoff berth.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.917	61.429	37.149	22.638
BAL	9-5	0.706	26.987	73.908	44.150	21.811	11.744	6.621
SEA	10-4	0.703	49.700	94.880	81.439	49.107	28.736	14.777
GB	10-4	0.681	51.232	96.999	78.225	44.768	24.589	11.995
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	57.805	28.712	13.965	7.439
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.504	50.436	22.165	11.245
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.861	18.770	8.091	3.710	1.853
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	17.483	8.350	3.610	1.589	0.762
PHI	9-5	0.616	40.606	45.646	21.813	10.153	4.800	2.007
DET	10-4	0.606	48.768	93.492	68.549	33.159	14.805	6.055
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.300	+	83.157	37.295	16.904	6.875
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	4.284	1.937	0.684	0.306	0.137
DAL	10-4	0.596	59.394	68.984	36.916	16.563	7.431	2.966
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.707	72.213	32.968	12.366	4.865	2.125
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	0.052	0.020	0.006	0.003	0.001
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.306	78.340	31.732	10.782	3.799	1.507
SD	8-6	0.520	-	17.860	6.846	2.074	0.706	0.262
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.462	32.570	32.570	10.428	3.307	1.059	0.296
SF	7-7	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-8	0.455	44.778	44.778	14.071	4.374	1.373	0.376
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.363	22.651	22.651	5.403	1.273	0.303	0.062
CHI	5-8	0.331	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-12	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]