2014-12-06

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

When I was catching up on my podcasts this week, and listening to the Tuesday episode of Pardon The Interruption, I heard one of the guys mention that Miami was 7-5. I thought to myself that they were actually 6-6, and that would be corrected at the end of the show, as is often done. I didn't think any more of it that day, because I give podcasts only about half my attention while I'm working.

Then, Thursday night, the Bears played and lost. After I ran the numbers, I saw they were 6-7, but had read a story about them falling to 5-8, and being eliminated from the division. Suddenly the Miami mention came back to me, and I feared the worst - bad data.

Luckily, I guess, I found there was only one error, at least in terms of wins and losses. I mistakenly marked Miami's 27-14 win over Chicago backwards, causing all sorts of invalid numbers. The NFC was too strong, and the AFC was too weak. New England should not have been as highly likely to win their division or make the playoffs, even though they're still far and away the favorites.

To save myself from this happening again, my software now generates the current standings, which I can compare to the official standings and ensure a match before posting my numbers..

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
NE9-30.68680.86692.32083.68348.82128.24215.862
GB9-30.68270.20794.65381.90749.16928.50415.619
BAL7-50.66017.84332.50018.6449.6415.0842.709
IND8-40.65894.81695.18561.28132.89717.4499.267
SEA8-40.65843.28973.33253.59929.56815.8608.267
PHI9-30.64684.42191.06371.55638.91220.52710.442
MIA7-50.64012.76039.64223.51511.8836.1063.116
BUF7-50.6266.37421.80012.1515.9402.9691.478
DEN9-30.61890.24897.41084.05742.36619.8729.693
KC7-50.6162.36544.82423.08010.9015.2292.535
HOU6-60.5835.18414.4586.8523.0471.3770.623
DAL9-40.57915.57962.72435.74215.9917.1913.155
ARI9-30.57853.91389.83566.66430.52913.4645.899
SD8-40.5637.38749.27224.81410.5084.4641.929
DET8-40.56129.79371.90043.54318.7168.1203.417
PIT7-50.54015.16428.95314.3125.6192.2360.915
CIN8-3-10.52959.07471.18342.17616.3716.2172.480
CLE7-50.5167.91912.4545.4332.0060.7550.292
SF7-50.5122.78816.3037.5042.8321.1050.412
NO5-70.50955.60755.60722.6458.4203.1641.174
ATL5-70.48542.60342.60316.3635.7592.0390.712
STL5-70.4510.0100.1690.0580.0180.0060.002
MIN5-70.445-0.0200.0060.0020.0010.000
NYG3-90.382------
WAS3-90.352------
CHI5-80.330-0.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
TB2-100.317------
CAR3-8-10.3101.7901.7900.4130.0850.0170.004
TEN2-100.275------
NYJ2-100.256------
JAC2-100.240------
OAK1-110.218------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]

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