Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 16, Saturday

New England over Seattle

My simulations now show that Green Bay has clinched, though other sites do not. I can only assume this means I have a tiebreaker setup wrong. I tried to construct a scenario in which they would miss the playoffs, but I couldn't.

First, I had them lose their next 2 games, to finish 10-6. Philadelphia has to win next week to go 10-6 as well, otherwise Green Bay would definitely be in. Against Philadelphia directly, Green Bay would win on conference record, 7-5 to 6-6. Against Philadelphia and Seattle both at 10-6, Seattle would win to get the #5 seed, but then we're back to the Green Bay vs Philadelphia scenario for #6.

So, that must mean it requires Dallas to be 10-6 as well as Philadelphia, so that the Eagles win the division. Either Seattle will win a game to clinch #5 (or better), or will also be 10-6. Then, they'd clinch #6 based on conference record, and it would be down to Dallas vs Green Bay for #6. Here are the tiebreakers:

1. Head to Head (did not play)
2. Conference Winning Percentage (both 7-5)
3. Common Games Winning Percentage, minimum of 4 (both 3-1)
4. Strength of Victory

I'm pretty sure Green Bay's current .443 SOV can't be beat by Dallas, which is at .406. Maybe this is a case of making no assumptions of SOV by default until the last week, on the part of the other websites. Or, maybe I've got something wrong. If you've read this far, and can see how the Packers could miss the playoffs, I'd love to hear from you.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.936	61.694	37.369	22.767
BAL	9-5	0.706	27.000	70.500	42.100	20.760	11.205	6.312
SEA	10-4	0.704	49.643	99.257	83.256	49.971	29.293	15.077
GB	10-4	0.681	51.045	+	79.985	45.684	25.089	12.250
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	58.248	28.929	14.097	7.508
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.527	50.696	22.305	11.316
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.602	18.640	8.029	3.681	1.838
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	14.847	7.010	3.057	1.351	0.647
PHI	9-6	0.612	8.237	8.237	3.881	1.780	0.829	0.343
DET	10-4	0.606	48.955	+	72.093	34.800	15.477	6.337
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.357	+	82.170	36.616	16.593	6.754
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	2.979	1.340	0.469	0.214	0.096
DAL	10-4	0.596	91.763	92.506	46.982	21.015	9.425	3.766
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.709	70.893	32.736	12.284	4.841	2.114
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.292	74.830	30.644	10.436	3.681	1.459
SD	9-6	0.525	-	30.349	11.818	3.648	1.257	0.471
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-8	0.482	57.411	57.411	19.241	6.464	2.180	0.648
ATL	5-9	0.462	28.829	28.829	9.146	2.905	0.930	0.261
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	7-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.362	13.761	13.761	3.246	0.766	0.183	0.038
CHI	5-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	4-11	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	3-12	0.196	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-13	0.194	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 16, Saturday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
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[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
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[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
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[Week 9, Thursday]
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[Week 10, Thursday]
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[Week 14, Thursday]
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[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]