Tenets of Wilson

2016-12-13

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Dallas

New England beat Baltimore on Monday night, but just by a touchdown. As I mentioned yesterday, neither team had a chance to clinch last night, and I'm pretty sure no one would have been eliminated if Baltimore had won or tied. I kind of like having things unsettled late into the season, so I'll be rooting for the 5-win teams next week, and against the league leaders. I guess that means I'll be rooting for the Rams and their interim head coach to pull off the upset against Seattle on Thursday, though I don't find that very likely.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-2	0.725	99.64	99.95	99.83	66.77	43.14	26.14
DAL	11-2	0.698	95.81	++	98.06	63.72	39.56	21.83
ATL	8-5	0.626	76.05	89.94	61.34	31.82	15.75	7.47
PIT	8-5	0.625	72.36	83.11	48.88	24.64	11.47	5.69
DEN	8-5	0.619	1.28	49.42	27.30	11.53	5.80	2.84
KC	10-3	0.600	67.40	99.07	83.95	42.34	18.07	8.50
SEA	8-4-1	0.599	99.32	99.32	77.02	39.29	17.83	7.95
BAL	7-6	0.597	27.39	36.74	18.77	8.53	3.82	1.78
MIN	7-6	0.582	3.40	21.88	11.05	4.53	2.16	0.93
OAK	10-3	0.567	31.32	98.92	69.75	30.15	12.16	5.32
DET	9-4	0.558	79.06	86.81	58.91	26.37	10.86	4.41
BUF	6-7	0.546	-	2.34	1.02	0.33	0.15	0.06
ARI	5-7-1	0.546	0.68	0.78	0.39	0.16	0.07	0.03
GB	7-6	0.539	17.53	25.41	12.54	4.85	2.01	0.78
PHI	5-8	0.539	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	7-6	0.529	45.79	47.58	21.48	7.88	3.00	1.20
NYG	9-4	0.527	4.19	78.92	37.39	13.91	5.71	2.15
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	42.75	18.78	6.61	2.79	1.04
NO	5-8	0.512	0.15	0.16	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
SD	5-8	0.505	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	5-7-1	0.498	0.26	0.31	0.13	0.04	0.02	0.01
TB	8-5	0.494	23.70	53.90	24.41	8.71	3.24	1.12
IND	6-7	0.491	6.04	6.36	2.62	0.85	0.29	0.11
MIA	8-5	0.458	0.36	27.22	10.46	2.91	1.02	0.34
CAR	5-8	0.452	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	7-6	0.394	48.17	48.98	15.82	4.03	1.05	0.29
CHI	3-10	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-12	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-9	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 13, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 13, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 14, Sunday] New England over Dallas

2016-12-12

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Sunday

New England over Dallas

The big news this week is that Dallas lost to the Giants, the only team to beat them this year, and now they've done it twice. Dallas is still in the top position in the NFC, a full 2 games ahead of Detroit and...the Giants. Of course it's not quite as good as a 2-game lead in their division, because they would definitely lose in the first tiebreaker, which is head to head record.

No team clinched a playoff spot this Sunday, and no one will after tonight's New England - Baltimore game either. The AFC has a pretty solid middle group of teams right now, and the teams at the top aren't completely running away with things, so we'll have to wait until next week for the next clinch.

Buffalo was eliminated from their division, but is still alive for a wildcard spot. LA and Chicago were officially completely eliminated this week, just in time for Jeff Fisher to tie the record for all time losses by a head coach. He was fired today though, so he won't get a chance to break the record this Thursday when the Rams play in Seattle.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.713	98.13	99.48	98.70	64.37	40.73	24.15
DAL	11-2	0.698	95.81	++	98.06	63.72	39.56	22.16
ATL	8-5	0.626	76.05	89.94	61.35	31.82	15.76	7.60
PIT	8-5	0.625	60.74	78.40	45.44	22.63	10.91	5.42
DEN	8-5	0.619	1.31	43.48	24.06	10.64	5.34	2.61
BAL	7-5	0.615	39.11	51.46	28.25	13.47	6.45	3.13
KC	10-3	0.600	67.39	98.57	83.24	42.08	18.38	8.65
SEA	8-4-1	0.599	99.32	99.32	77.01	39.29	17.83	8.09
MIN	7-6	0.582	3.40	21.88	11.04	4.53	2.16	0.94
OAK	10-3	0.567	31.31	98.27	69.55	30.46	12.50	5.47
DET	9-4	0.558	79.06	86.81	58.89	26.36	10.86	4.49
BUF	6-7	0.546	-	1.50	0.65	0.22	0.10	0.04
ARI	5-7-1	0.546	0.68	0.78	0.39	0.16	0.07	0.03
GB	7-6	0.539	17.53	25.41	12.54	4.85	2.01	0.80
PHI	5-8	0.539	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	7-6	0.529	45.78	46.96	21.10	7.93	3.05	1.22
NYG	9-4	0.527	4.19	78.92	37.39	13.91	5.71	2.19
WAS	7-5-1	0.524	-	42.75	18.78	6.61	2.79	1.07
NO	5-8	0.512	0.15	0.16	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
SD	5-8	0.505	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CIN	5-7-1	0.498	0.15	0.18	0.08	0.03	0.01	0.00
TB	8-5	0.494	23.70	53.91	24.41	8.71	3.24	1.15
IND	6-7	0.491	6.04	6.24	2.56	0.85	0.30	0.11
MIA	8-5	0.458	1.87	26.65	10.69	3.25	1.13	0.38
CAR	5-8	0.452	0.11	0.12	0.05	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	7-6	0.394	48.18	48.80	15.68	4.08	1.08	0.30
CHI	3-10	0.344	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.309	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	4-9	0.307	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-12	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-9	0.262	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-13	0.212	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-11

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

The FBS regular season is finally over with Army defeating Navy for the first time in 15 years. Unsurprisingly, the teams at the top didn't really change. I really wonder how the College Football Playoff committee would handle it if Army or Navy became a contender. A few teams shuffled a place or two up and down due to the strength of schedule changes affected by Army, Navy, or one of the 16 FCS, Division 2, and Division 3 teams that played playoff games. Interestingly (for generous definitions of interesting), there are now 3 ties in my rankings, at #68, #80, and #99.

There are now 5 lower division playoff games to go, and just the bowls for FBS.

1	Alabama	13-0
2	Clemson	12-1
3	Western Michigan	13-0
4	Washington	12-1
5	Ohio State	11-1
6	Penn State	11-2
7	Michigan	10-2
8	Oklahoma	10-2
9	Boise State	10-2
10	West Virginia	10-2
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Colorado	10-3
13	South Florida	10-2
14	Florida State	9-3
15	Temple	10-3
16	Western Kentucky	10-3
17	San Diego State	10-3
18	USC	9-3
19	Navy	9-4
20	Oklahoma State	9-3
21	Stanford	9-3
22	Virginia Tech	9-4
23	Nebraska	9-3
24	Louisville	9-3
25	Tulsa	9-3
26	Houston	9-3
27	Tennessee	8-4
28	Toledo	9-3
29	Appalachian State	9-3
30	North Carolina	8-4
31	Air Force	9-3
32	Auburn	8-4
33	Pittsburgh	8-4
34	Florida	8-4
35	Georgia Tech	8-4
36	Washington State	8-4
37	Texas A&M	8-4
38	Troy	9-3
39	Iowa	8-4
40	Wyoming	8-5
41	Old Dominion	9-3
42	Miami	8-4
43	Utah	8-4
44	LSU	7-4
45	Memphis	8-4
46	Minnesota	8-4
47	Kansas State	8-4
48	BYU	8-4
49	Idaho	8-4
50	Georgia	7-5
51	New Mexico	8-4
52	Arkansas	7-5
53	Louisiana Tech	8-5
54	Colorado State	7-5
55	Middle Tennessee	8-4
56	Ohio	8-5
57	Kentucky	7-5
58	Vanderbilt	6-6
59	Arkansas State	7-5
60	Eastern Michigan	7-5
61	NC State	6-6
62	Northwestern	6-6
63	TCU	6-6
64	Army	7-5
65	Ole Miss	5-7
66	South Carolina	6-6
67	UCF	6-6
T-68	Wake Forest	6-6
T-68	Boston College	6-6
70	Indiana	6-6
71	Louisiana Lafayette	6-6
72	Maryland	6-6
73	Texas San Antonio	6-6
74	Central Michigan	6-6
75	South Alabama	6-6
76	Baylor	6-6
77	Mississippi State	5-7
78	SMU	5-7
79	Hawai'i	6-7
T-80	Southern Mississippi	6-6
T-80	Miami (OH)	6-6
82	California	5-7
83	Arizona State	5-7
84	Texas Tech	5-7
85	Northern Illinois	5-7
86	Georgia Southern	5-7
87	Texas	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Akron	5-7
90	Syracuse	4-8
91	Missouri	4-8
92	Duke	4-8
93	UCLA	4-8
94	Oregon	4-8
95	Oregon State	4-8
96	Tulane	4-8
97	Cincinnati	4-8
98	Notre Dame	4-8
T-99	Nevada	5-7
T-99	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
101	Bowling Green	4-8
102	San Jose State	4-8
103	Arizona	3-9
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Utah State	3-9
106	Charlotte	4-8
107	Florida Intl	4-8
108	Ball State	4-8
109	Illinois	3-9
110	East Carolina	3-9
111	UTEP	4-8
112	Iowa State	3-9
113	New Mexico State	3-9
114	Michigan State	3-9
115	Purdue	3-9
116	Georgia State	3-9
117	Kent State	3-9
118	Connecticut	3-9
119	Rice	3-9
120	Marshall	3-9
121	Virginia	2-10
122	Florida Atlantic	3-9
123	Rutgers	2-10
124	Kansas	2-10
125	Massachusetts	2-10
126	Texas State	2-10
127	Buffalo	2-10
128	Fresno State	1-11

2016 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0, Except Michigan and California
Week 2 Texas
Week 3 Texas A&M
Week 4 Texas A&M
Week 5 Tennessee
Week 6 Texas A&M
Week 7 Alabama
Week 8 Alabama
Week 9 Alabama
Week 10 Alabama
Week 11 Alabama
Week 12 Alabama
Week 13 Alabama
Week 14 Alabama

2016-12-09

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Dallas

Kansas City beat Oakland on one of the best Thursday night matchups we've seen (by record), and now both teams are over 98% likely to make the playoffs, along with a 66% chance for Denver. Kansas City has a tiebreaker lead over Oakland, so despite their identical records, Kansas City has double the chances at winning the division. We'll see a very strong first wildcard team in the AFC, most likely one with a much better record than the 4th division winner they'll face in the opening round, currently likely to be the winner of the AFC South, which has 3 co-leaders at 6-6.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.714	99.21	99.65	99.09	64.37	40.80	23.80
DAL	11-1	0.692	98.65	++	99.24	65.27	38.16	21.14
SEA	8-3-1	0.662	98.69	99.35	92.20	56.24	29.39	15.28
DEN	8-4	0.620	6.38	65.54	39.08	17.99	8.87	4.26
BAL	7-5	0.615	51.32	57.11	31.35	15.07	7.15	3.40
PIT	7-5	0.612	48.13	58.90	32.09	15.46	7.21	3.40
KC	10-3	0.601	65.12	98.55	83.62	42.36	18.46	8.50
ATL	7-5	0.585	76.26	88.35	52.32	22.18	9.95	4.37
OAK	10-3	0.568	28.50	98.11	67.21	29.18	12.02	5.13
MIN	6-6	0.560	5.32	29.87	14.91	5.62	2.46	1.02
BUF	6-6	0.560	0.00	6.69	3.09	1.13	0.52	0.22
ARI	5-6-1	0.553	1.31	10.94	5.26	1.98	0.86	0.35
DET	8-4	0.551	84.22	90.19	53.93	21.41	8.75	3.56
PHI	5-7	0.550	-	2.32	1.12	0.41	0.18	0.07
SD	5-7	0.526	-	0.35	0.15	0.05	0.02	0.01
TEN	6-6	0.522	24.47	25.58	11.24	4.16	1.58	0.61
NO	5-7	0.520	4.96	7.27	3.44	1.18	0.46	0.18
NYG	8-4	0.519	1.35	68.45	32.10	11.03	4.33	1.63
WAS	6-5-1	0.515	-	37.25	16.77	5.60	2.21	0.82
IND	6-6	0.500	41.35	41.59	17.27	6.00	2.14	0.78
GB	6-6	0.487	10.46	17.09	7.63	2.41	0.87	0.30
TB	7-5	0.484	18.68	48.73	21.01	6.66	2.39	0.82
CIN	4-7-1	0.469	0.55	0.57	0.22	0.07	0.02	0.01
MIA	7-5	0.452	0.79	13.01	5.11	1.52	0.52	0.17
CAR	4-8	0.430	0.09	0.18	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	6-6	0.383	34.18	34.34	10.50	2.63	0.68	0.18
CHI	3-9	0.351	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-8	0.309	-	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-11	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-08

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXVI

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV XXV

We're just about into Bowl Season again. Will I get these done anytime soon?

1986 Topps Traded #82T Jose Oquendo
1990 Sportflics #85 Jose Oquendo
1991 Topps Stadium Club #190 Jose Oquendo
1991 Topps Stadium Club #366 Felix Jose
1991 Topps Stadium Club #481 Jamie Moyer
1992 Donruss - Diamond Kings #DK-13 Felix Jose

St. Louis was Jamie Moyer's 3rd team, and yet he retired 21 years after he left the Cardinals.

1992 Fleer - All Stars #1 Felix Jose
1996 Donruss #87 Brian Jordan
1996 Donruss #153 Tripp Cromer
1996 Donruss #234 Jose Oquendo
1996 Donruss #282 Mike Morgan
1996 Pacific #228 Jose Oquendo

I got a nice handful of Felix Jose and Jose Oquendo cards, among others. Both of them were on the 1992 team which was the first I ever watched. Oquendo had a long coaching career with the Cardinals as well, but has opted to just be a spring training instructor for now. He's no Hall of Famer, but I think the Cardinals should retire #11 for him, for combined playing and coaching contributions to the team.

2016-12-06

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Dallas

The Jets lost and ended any hopes of making the playoffs. Somewhat interestingly, Miami and Buffalo both lost ground in the divisional race, even though they and New England all play the Jets one more time each. That's because New England is projected to be even more likely to beat them now, which will eliminate Buffalo no matter their other results, and force Miami to beat New England on tiebreakers. Let's be realistic though, New England is going to win the AFC East.

Indianapolis was the winner last night, and with a 31 point victory they brought their point differential to exactly 0, hence why they are listed at .500 in strength. A team that gives as many points as it gets is expected to win about half the time on average, which Indianapolis has done, going 6-6 so far.

This Thursday will be one of the best Thursday matchups we've seen this season, KC vs Oakland. Neither team will be eliminated, and most likely both will eventually make the playoffs along with their division rival Denver.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.714	99.21	99.73	99.13	64.16	41.06	23.95
DAL	11-1	0.692	98.65	++	99.24	65.28	38.16	21.21
SEA	8-3-1	0.662	98.69	99.35	92.20	56.23	29.39	15.33
DEN	8-4	0.620	5.53	65.41	38.86	18.37	8.99	4.32
BAL	7-5	0.615	51.31	57.94	31.69	14.91	7.25	3.44
PIT	7-5	0.612	48.13	60.09	32.49	15.42	7.34	3.46
ATL	7-5	0.585	76.64	88.47	52.43	22.23	9.97	4.40
KC	9-3	0.583	36.39	91.97	67.29	31.61	13.37	5.91
OAK	10-2	0.579	58.08	99.10	81.47	39.08	16.21	7.11
MIN	6-6	0.561	5.32	29.88	14.91	5.62	2.46	1.03
BUF	6-6	0.560	0.00	7.29	3.39	1.34	0.59	0.25
ARI	5-6-1	0.553	1.31	10.93	5.26	1.97	0.86	0.35
DET	8-4	0.551	84.22	90.20	53.92	21.39	8.74	3.57
PHI	5-7	0.550	-	2.32	1.12	0.41	0.17	0.07
SD	5-7	0.526	-	0.53	0.23	0.08	0.03	0.01
TEN	6-6	0.522	25.15	26.45	11.63	4.35	1.66	0.64
NO	5-7	0.520	4.96	7.27	3.44	1.18	0.46	0.18
NYG	8-4	0.519	1.35	68.45	32.09	11.03	4.32	1.63
WAS	6-5-1	0.515	-	37.26	16.76	5.60	2.21	0.83
IND	6-6	0.500	40.76	41.06	16.99	6.01	2.16	0.78
GB	6-6	0.487	10.46	17.12	7.64	2.42	0.87	0.31
TB	7-5	0.484	18.31	48.56	20.92	6.62	2.38	0.82
CIN	4-7-1	0.469	0.55	0.57	0.22	0.07	0.03	0.01
MIA	7-5	0.452	0.79	15.57	6.16	1.94	0.64	0.21
CAR	4-8	0.430	0.09	0.18	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	6-6	0.383	34.09	34.29	10.45	2.67	0.69	0.18
CHI	3-9	0.351	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-8	0.309	-	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
NYJ	3-9	0.299	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	1-11	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-05

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over Dallas

I think we all should have known that New England's game against LA would allow them to improve their points scored to points allowed ratio enough to overtake Dallas in strength. I've now had the same two teams winning each conference since Sunday of Week 8. They've swapped positions with each other a few times, but remained atop their respecive conferences.

Dallas is the first team to clinch a playoff spot, getting the loss they needed from Washington to guarantee they can't finish below 6th. Jacksonville is the third team completly out of the playoff hunt, while Los Angeles, Chicago, San Diego, and Washington have now been eliminated from their divisions.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-2	0.714	99.19	99.70	99.05	64.23	41.12	23.98
DAL	11-1	0.692	98.65	++	99.24	65.26	38.15	21.20
SEA	8-3-1	0.662	98.69	99.35	92.19	56.21	29.37	15.32
DEN	8-4	0.620	5.32	65.98	39.43	18.70	9.14	4.39
BAL	7-5	0.615	51.32	58.12	31.77	14.90	7.27	3.45
PIT	7-5	0.612	48.13	60.38	32.53	15.37	7.34	3.46
ATL	7-5	0.585	76.65	88.38	52.39	22.22	9.97	4.40
KC	9-3	0.583	35.26	92.25	67.83	31.89	13.50	5.96
OAK	10-2	0.579	59.42	99.25	82.85	39.91	16.53	7.25
MIN	6-6	0.560	5.71	31.55	15.75	5.94	2.60	1.09
BUF	6-6	0.560	0.00	7.13	3.31	1.32	0.58	0.24
ARI	5-6-1	0.553	1.31	10.73	5.16	1.94	0.84	0.35
DET	8-4	0.551	83.94	89.99	53.75	21.32	8.71	3.56
PHI	5-7	0.550	-	2.28	1.10	0.40	0.17	0.07
SD	5-7	0.526	-	0.57	0.25	0.08	0.04	0.01
TEN	6-6	0.522	33.28	34.10	14.96	5.60	2.13	0.82
NO	5-7	0.520	4.96	7.20	3.41	1.17	0.46	0.17
NYG	8-4	0.519	1.35	68.09	31.92	10.97	4.30	1.63
WAS	6-5-1	0.515	-	36.92	16.61	5.55	2.19	0.82
GB	6-6	0.487	10.35	17.02	7.59	2.40	0.87	0.30
TB	7-5	0.484	18.29	48.31	20.83	6.60	2.37	0.82
CIN	4-7-1	0.469	0.55	0.57	0.22	0.07	0.03	0.01
MIA	7-5	0.452	0.81	14.88	5.93	1.88	0.62	0.20
IND	5-6	0.445	25.91	26.08	9.40	2.87	0.89	0.28
CAR	4-8	0.430	0.09	0.17	0.07	0.02	0.01	0.00
HOU	6-6	0.383	40.80	40.99	12.47	3.18	0.82	0.22
NYJ	3-8	0.353	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
CHI	3-9	0.351	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-10	0.326	-	-	-	-	-	-
LA	4-8	0.309	-	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-11	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

2016-12-04

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 14

Alabama and Clemson both won their conference title games and stayed #1 and #2. Ohio State, not playing due to not being in the title game for the Big Ten, fell just out of my top 4. Penn State and Wisconsin, who played for the Big Ten, were #7 and #8 before, so Penn State only managed to reach #6. The rankings came out early this week, since it's the final week, and as expected, my big difference from the committee is that I have Western Michigan #3, and they have them #15. I'd think they would at least bump them up to somewhere between 5-10, since the spots are pretty much meaningless once you pass #4. This just confirms that for a large number of teams, you'll have no shot at the championship, even with an undefeated season.

Compared to the committee, I matched #1, #2, and #4. And if you throw out Western Michigan for not being in the big money conferences, I guess, I got the 4 teams right but out of order. So - other than Western Michigan - I can generally agree with the committee's choices. Somewhat ironically, I think this is a year you could pick a pretty clear #1 and #2, so the old BCS system would have worked out OK with little controversy. Putting 4 teams into a playoff was supposed to solve the idea of a 3rd really good team getting left out, but of course it just causes people to argue over the teams that land around #5 or #6. I've heard ideas about expanding to 6 or 8 teams, but it will just shift the window of which picks are controversial down that many more places. Pundits need something to talk about I suppose. So do I, for that matter.

The bottom two teams remained in place as well, though a surprising number of teams toward the bottom did shuffle around a bit, due to their schedule strengths changing when their good opponents won or lost.

1	Alabama	13-0
2	Clemson	12-1
3	Western Michigan	13-0
4	Washington	12-1
5	Ohio State	11-1
6	Penn State	11-2
7	Michigan	10-2
8	Oklahoma	10-2
9	Boise State	10-2
10	West Virginia	10-2
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Colorado	10-3
13	South Florida	10-2
14	Florida State	9-3
15	Temple	10-3
16	Western Kentucky	10-3
17	San Diego State	10-3
18	Navy	9-3
19	USC	9-3
20	Oklahoma State	9-3
21	Stanford	9-3
22	Virginia Tech	9-4
23	Nebraska	9-3
24	Tulsa	9-3
25	Louisville	9-3
26	Houston	9-3
27	Tennessee	8-4
28	Toledo	9-3
29	Appalachian State	9-3
30	North Carolina	8-4
31	Auburn	8-4
32	Air Force	9-3
33	Pittsburgh	8-4
34	Florida	8-4
35	Washington State	8-4
36	Georgia Tech	8-4
37	Texas A&M	8-4
38	Troy	9-3
39	Iowa	8-4
40	Wyoming	8-5
41	Old Dominion	9-3
42	Miami	8-4
43	Utah	8-4
44	LSU	7-4
45	Memphis	8-4
46	Minnesota	8-4
47	Kansas State	8-4
48	BYU	8-4
49	Idaho	8-4
50	Georgia	7-5
51	New Mexico	8-4
52	Arkansas	7-5
53	Louisiana Tech	8-5
54	Colorado State	7-5
55	Middle Tennessee	8-4
56	Ohio	8-5
57	Kentucky	7-5
58	Vanderbilt	6-6
59	Arkansas State	7-5
60	Eastern Michigan	7-5
61	NC State	6-6
62	Northwestern	6-6
63	TCU	6-6
64	Ole Miss	5-7
65	South Carolina	6-6
66	UCF	6-6
67	Boston College	6-6
68	Wake Forest	6-6
69	Louisiana Lafayette	6-6
70	Indiana	6-6
71	Maryland	6-6
72	Texas San Antonio	6-6
73	Central Michigan	6-6
74	South Alabama	6-6
75	Baylor	6-6
76	Mississippi State	5-7
77	SMU	5-7
78	Hawai'i	6-7
79	Miami (OH)	6-6
80	Southern Mississippi	6-6
81	California	5-7
82	Arizona State	5-7
83	Texas Tech	5-7
84	Northern Illinois	5-7
85	Army	6-5
86	Georgia Southern	5-7
87	Texas	5-7
88	North Texas	5-7
89	Akron	5-7
90	Syracuse	4-8
91	Missouri	4-8
92	Duke	4-8
93	UCLA	4-8
94	Oregon	4-8
95	Oregon State	4-8
96	Tulane	4-8
97	Cincinnati	4-8
98	Louisiana Monroe	4-8
99	Nevada	5-7
100	Notre Dame	4-8
101	Bowling Green	4-8
102	San Jose State	4-8
103	Arizona	3-9
104	UNLV	4-8
105	Utah State	3-9
106	Charlotte	4-8
107	Florida Intl	4-8
108	Ball State	4-8
109	Illinois	3-9
110	East Carolina	3-9
111	Iowa State	3-9
112	New Mexico State	3-9
113	UTEP	4-8
114	Michigan State	3-9
115	Purdue	3-9
116	Georgia State	3-9
117	Kent State	3-9
118	Connecticut	3-9
119	Rice	3-9
120	Marshall	3-9
121	Virginia	2-10
122	Florida Atlantic	3-9
123	Rutgers	2-10
124	Kansas	2-10
125	Massachusetts	2-10
126	Texas State	2-10
127	Buffalo	2-10
128	Fresno State	1-11

2016 History and #1s

2016-12-02

Superbowl LI Projection, Week 13, Thursday

Dallas over New England

By virtue of playing first in week 13, Dallas has retaken the lead position from New England. We'll see what happens with that after their game on Sunday. Philadelphia is officially eliminated from winning the NFC East. Dallas has not yet clinched a playoff spot, even though I show 100.00%. That's due to rounding. A true 100% will show a "+" instead. Out of a billion simulations, they missed the playoffs in less than 3400 of them, putting them over the five 9s mark (99.999%). I like to double check my clinched/not clinched status with other sites, especially because I don't simulate ties by default, and when I do the percentage chance is too low to cover all possible scenarios, and those sites tell me Dallas needs Tampa to lose or tie, or Washington to lose, in order to clinch a playoff spot. If that doesn't happen, but some other games go the right way, such as the Giants losing, Dallas could get even closer to clinching without being officially in the postseason.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
DAL	11-1	0.693	96.14	100.00	98.55	64.64	40.74	23.90
NE	9-2	0.683	94.73	99.05	97.29	62.08	38.91	22.17
DEN	7-4	0.597	6.85	46.66	29.93	14.48	7.11	3.40
PIT	6-5	0.591	55.02	59.76	33.30	16.22	7.76	3.66
SEA	7-3-1	0.591	96.94	97.69	80.04	42.43	19.15	9.16
PHI	5-6	0.589	-	10.02	5.35	2.22	1.12	0.53
BUF	6-5	0.588	0.25	26.03	15.01	6.74	3.31	1.55
ATL	7-4	0.586	81.79	88.13	60.36	30.13	13.63	6.45
KC	8-3	0.583	37.22	82.92	62.54	31.51	14.47	6.71
MIN	6-6	0.561	15.18	31.77	16.45	6.73	3.07	1.38
OAK	9-2	0.556	55.90	92.06	75.88	36.39	15.51	6.78
NO	5-6	0.543	8.82	15.57	7.94	3.24	1.40	0.60
BAL	6-5	0.542	44.14	46.76	22.89	9.83	4.28	1.81
NYG	8-3	0.542	3.82	79.85	41.48	16.30	7.15	3.07
SD	5-6	0.537	0.02	3.28	1.65	0.64	0.29	0.12
ARI	4-6-1	0.537	3.00	6.54	3.21	1.26	0.55	0.23
WAS	6-4-1	0.530	0.04	54.16	25.77	9.38	4.13	1.73
TEN	6-6	0.522	25.53	27.16	12.47	5.04	2.07	0.84
DET	7-4	0.519	72.53	76.73	43.56	17.86	6.93	2.83
MIA	7-4	0.519	5.02	40.53	22.42	8.91	3.74	1.50
CAR	4-7	0.491	0.49	1.24	0.54	0.18	0.07	0.03
GB	5-6	0.473	12.28	15.03	6.58	2.22	0.81	0.29
TB	6-5	0.470	8.90	23.12	10.12	3.39	1.24	0.45
IND	5-6	0.445	20.89	21.18	7.95	2.62	0.89	0.30
CIN	3-7-1	0.429	0.84	0.84	0.30	0.10	0.03	0.01
HOU	6-5	0.402	53.55	53.73	18.34	5.42	1.62	0.48
NYJ	3-8	0.353	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	2-9	0.349	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
LA	4-7	0.343	0.06	0.15	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
CHI	2-9	0.318	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	1-10	0.311	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	0-12	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl win: New England (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 3, Thursday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Minnesota (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 12, Thursday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Dallas (Week 13, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Cleveland, San Francisco (Week 11, Sunday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Thursday] San Francisco over Houston
[Week 2, Sunday] Pittsburgh over Minnesota
[Week 2, Final] Philadelphia over Houston
[Week 3, Thursday] New England over Philadelphia
[Week 3, Sunday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 3, Final] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Thursday] Philadelphia over New England
[Week 4, Sunday] Philadelphia over Denver
[Week 4, Final] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Thursday] Minnesota over Denver
[Week 5, Sunday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 5, Final] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Thursday] Minnesota over Pittsburgh
[Week 6, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 6, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Sunday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 7, Final] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Thursday] New England over Minnesota
[Week 8, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 9, Final] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Thursday] New England over Dallas
[Week 10, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 10, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Sunday] Dallas over New England
[Week 11, Final] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Thursday] Dallas over New England
[Week 12, Sunday] New England over Dallas
[Week 12, Final] New England over Dallas

2016-12-01

Bowl Pick 'Em Contest Winnings, Part XXV

College football ~~will be here again before we know it~~ IS HERE, so I've got to get my prize from last season's Bowl Pick 'Em contest at Cards on Cards posted! My prize for a second place tie was a very generously sized box of cards, so I felt a bit overwhelmed even sorting through them. I finally sorted them out by player, and, as usual, I'll plan to post them all eventually, but I might quit halfway through, we'll see.

Part I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X
XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI XVII XVIII XIX XX
XXI XXII XXIII XXIV

With Jaime Garcia getting traded today, I thought I'd play one of Deadspin's favorite games: Let's Remember Some Guys. Except I'll throw in some context about how they left.

2011 Topps Allen and Ginter #303 Jaime Garcia
2011 Topps Lineage #189 Jaime Garcia
2012 Topps Archives #34 Jaime Garcia
2012 Topps Chrome #119 Jaime Garcia
2013 Topps #54 Jaime Garcia
2014 Topps Allen and Ginter #84 Joe Kelly
2014 Topps Allen and Ginter #198 Pete Kozma
2014 Topps Archives #28 Joe Kelly
2015 Topps Heritage Minor League #2 Rob Kaminsky

Jaime Garcia went to the Braves after multiple injury plagued seasons here. I hope for his sake he can make it through a season. On the scale of Braves-Cardinals trades, I just need this one to go better than Jason Heyward, and if we're lucky, as good as Adam Wainwright. The return is all prospects, so we'll see what happens.

Joe Kelly was part of the deal to bring John Lackey to St. Louis. I'd say that trade was a success overall, especially since the Cardinals got his 2015 season very cheaply due to a quirk of his contract triggered by an injury earlier on.

Pete Kozma signed with the Yankees after becoming a free agent at the end of the 2015 season. He played all 4 infield positions and 130 games in 2016, but in AAA only.

Rob Kaminsky hasn't even made it to AAA yet, but was sent to Cleveland for Brandon Moss at the 2015 trade deadline. He lasted through the 2016, but is now a free agent. Moss wore my favorite jersey number, so I'll have to have a new default favorite player in 2016.