2024-01-22

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Divisional Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Both teams I rooted for won on Sunday, and they'll both travel to play some juggernauts in the Conference championships.

Kansas City at Baltimore (72%)
As usual, I'm rooting for Kansas City. By the numbers it's looking a little scary, though.

Detroit at San Francisco (74%)
I feel like my rooting interest in this one will depend on the first game. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Detroit, both because they are the underdog, and because they should be an easier opponent in the Super Bowl. If Baltimore wins, I think I'll root for San Francisco, so that my matchup projection since week 10 (And also briefly in week 3) will be proven accurate.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL13-40.834++++++++71.642.5
SF12-50.814++++++++73.538.9
KC11-60.666++++++++28.410.7
DET12-50.612++++++++26.57.9
DAL12-50.805++++----
BUF11-60.750++++++---
MIA11-60.669-++----
NO9-80.648------
GB9-80.566-++++---
CLE11-60.566-++----
LAR10-70.551-++----
TB9-80.550++++++---
HOU10-70.548++++++---
JAX9-80.512------
PHI11-60.509-++----
LV8-90.502------
IND9-80.465------
CIN9-80.465------
MIN7-100.462------
CHI7-100.462------
PIT10-70.453-++----
SEA9-80.427------
LAC5-120.398------
DEN8-90.394------
ATL7-100.391------
TEN6-110.366------
NYJ7-100.303------
ARI4-130.279------
NYG6-110.221------
NE4-130.215------
WSH4-130.207------
CAR2-150.158------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Monday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco

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