Baltimore was idle after their win Thursday, and San Francisco won again. Dallas, however, is stalking closely behind. We now have two NFC teams at 99% playoff chances, but none over 99.9% yet. And, while there have been no official eliminations, my simulation shows Washington and Chicago joining New York, Arizona, and Carolina as never winning the NFC #1 spot, with New England the only team eliminated from that in the AFC so far.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 8-3 | 0.714 | 60.1 | 97.4 | 72.6 | 46.5 | 28.9 | 16.9 |
| SF | 7-3 | 0.703 | 91.9 | 99.1 | 76.0 | 48.0 | 29.0 | 16.6 |
| DAL | 7-3 | 0.696 | 26.6 | 98.1 | 69.3 | 42.1 | 24.9 | 14.0 |
| KC | 7-2 | 0.633 | 95.7 | 97.9 | 73.5 | 39.7 | 19.7 | 9.7 |
| PHI | 8-1 | 0.596 | 73.4 | 99.9 | 76.0 | 37.9 | 17.0 | 7.8 |
| CLE | 7-3 | 0.597 | 35.6 | 93.5 | 54.6 | 26.1 | 12.0 | 5.5 |
| MIA | 7-3 | 0.603 | 68.8 | 88.9 | 50.1 | 24.2 | 11.4 | 5.3 |
| BUF | 6-5 | 0.684 | 30.5 | 50.4 | 29.8 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 5.2 |
| DET | 8-2 | 0.573 | 83.5 | 98.4 | 57.9 | 25.8 | 11.2 | 4.9 |
| JAX | 7-3 | 0.552 | 59.2 | 87.9 | 44.7 | 18.7 | 7.7 | 3.2 |
| HOU | 6-4 | 0.558 | 35.4 | 70.7 | 34.5 | 14.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 |
| MIN | 6-5 | 0.545 | 15.5 | 80.0 | 35.9 | 14.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 |
| NO | 5-5 | 0.534 | 59.2 | 67.1 | 27.4 | 11.0 | 4.5 | 1.8 |
| SEA | 6-4 | 0.496 | 7.5 | 63.4 | 24.8 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| IND | 5-5 | 0.489 | 5.3 | 32.8 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| GB | 4-6 | 0.500 | 0.9 | 27.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| TB | 4-6 | 0.482 | 21.1 | 30.6 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| PIT | 6-4 | 0.431 | 4.1 | 41.3 | 13.8 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| LAC | 4-6 | 0.537 | 1.9 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| ATL | 4-6 | 0.441 | 19.6 | 24.0 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| CIN | 5-5 | 0.452 | 0.2 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| LAR | 4-6 | 0.448 | 0.6 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| DEN | 5-5 | 0.411 | 1.1 | 10.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| LV | 5-6 | 0.409 | 1.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 4-6 | 0.375 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TEN | 3-7 | 0.399 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WSH | 4-7 | 0.383 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 3-8 | 0.399 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 3-8 | 0.260 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 2-9 | 0.331 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CAR | 1-9 | 0.309 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NE | 2-8 | 0.309 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
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