2023-11-21

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

We had another good single-game day, with two teams who have been conference favorites this year playing. Philadelphia beat Kansas City, and finally crosses that 99.9% threshold. Note that when I show 100.0, that's rounded. An actual clinch with display with a plus (+).

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL8-30.71460.197.574.247.629.817.4
SF7-30.70391.999.174.346.628.116.1
DAL7-30.69618.998.068.341.124.213.7
PHI9-10.60581.1100.082.142.219.39.0
KC7-30.62893.196.367.235.617.58.6
CLE7-30.59735.693.555.726.712.45.6
MIA7-30.60368.988.951.224.911.75.4
BUF6-50.68430.550.330.017.19.65.3
DET8-20.57383.598.456.224.510.74.7
JAX7-30.55259.287.945.819.48.03.3
HOU6-40.55835.470.834.814.96.32.6
MIN6-50.54515.580.035.814.66.02.5
NO5-50.53459.267.126.910.84.41.7
SEA6-40.4967.563.224.39.03.31.2
IND5-50.4895.332.812.64.51.60.6
GB4-60.5000.927.310.43.81.40.5
TB4-60.48221.130.710.63.81.40.5
PIT6-40.4314.141.314.04.31.30.4
LAC4-60.5363.211.95.12.10.90.3
ATL4-60.44119.624.17.32.30.80.2
CIN5-50.4520.211.13.81.20.40.1
LAR4-60.4480.610.83.51.20.40.1
DEN5-50.4111.711.03.41.00.30.1
LV5-60.4092.04.61.40.40.10.0
NYJ4-60.3750.61.70.50.10.00.0
TEN3-70.3990.10.50.20.00.00.0
WSH4-70.3830.00.60.20.00.00.0
CHI3-80.3990.00.50.10.00.00.0
NYG3-80.2600.00.10.00.00.00.0
ARI2-90.3320.00.00.00.00.00.0
NE2-80.3090.00.00.00.00.00.0
CAR1-90.3090.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

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