Returning despite no particular popular demand: my Super Bowl projections! I really need to work on a better explainer paragraph, but here's what I usually go with:
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
I feel like I've lived through too many bad Cleveland seasons to every truly believe that they'll be good enough to make the Super Bowl, and even though I can recall the Dallas back-to-back wins, I've seen them fail to live up to their promise so much that it feels weird to pick them too. But, after a 40-0 win, Dallas is the strongest team in the league by a hair over Cleveland, who won 24-3.
Note that the list below is sorted by overall chances to win the Super Bowl, so Cleveland is at the top due to a slightly easier path to get there (The NFC is currently 10-6 while the AFC is 6-10, and the AFC North is 2-2 compared to the NFC East's 3-1), but in a hypothetical matchup against Dallas, Dallas would be slightly favored. Hence, Dallas over Cleveland.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1-0 | 0.529 | 40.9 | 66.0 | 41.6 | 22.0 | 11.6 | 6.0 |
| BAL | 1-0 | 0.527 | 38.2 | 64.4 | 40.3 | 21.2 | 11.1 | 5.7 |
| DAL | 1-0 | 0.529 | 36.3 | 60.0 | 36.5 | 19.0 | 9.9 | 5.2 |
| JAX | 1-0 | 0.515 | 46.2 | 63.4 | 38.3 | 19.6 | 10.0 | 5.1 |
| SF | 1-0 | 0.529 | 37.8 | 58.0 | 35.0 | 18.2 | 9.4 | 4.9 |
| ATL | 1-0 | 0.525 | 35.6 | 59.1 | 35.7 | 18.4 | 9.5 | 4.9 |
| LAR | 1-0 | 0.525 | 38.0 | 58.6 | 35.1 | 18.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 |
| GB | 1-0 | 0.522 | 41.2 | 59.9 | 35.7 | 18.3 | 9.3 | 4.8 |
| NYJ | 1-0 | 0.513 | 37.4 | 60.1 | 36.1 | 18.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 |
| LV | 1-0 | 0.503 | 41.3 | 59.7 | 34.9 | 17.4 | 8.7 | 4.3 |
| MIA | 1-0 | 0.502 | 32.8 | 56.4 | 33.0 | 16.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 |
| WSH | 1-0 | 0.509 | 28.0 | 52.1 | 30.1 | 15.0 | 7.5 | 3.8 |
| TB | 1-0 | 0.507 | 28.1 | 51.9 | 29.9 | 14.8 | 7.3 | 3.7 |
| PHI | 1-0 | 0.509 | 27.9 | 50.7 | 29.2 | 14.5 | 7.2 | 3.7 |
| NO | 1-0 | 0.503 | 27.3 | 49.8 | 28.3 | 13.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 |
| DET | 1-0 | 0.502 | 31.4 | 50.0 | 28.2 | 13.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 |
| TEN | 0-1 | 0.497 | 21.8 | 38.7 | 21.2 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| KC | 0-1 | 0.498 | 20.9 | 37.8 | 20.7 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 |
| LAC | 0-1 | 0.498 | 20.0 | 35.4 | 19.2 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| DEN | 0-1 | 0.497 | 17.8 | 35.1 | 19.0 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| NE | 0-1 | 0.491 | 16.5 | 35.1 | 19.0 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| IND | 0-1 | 0.485 | 15.9 | 32.0 | 16.9 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| BUF | 0-1 | 0.487 | 13.3 | 31.3 | 16.6 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 |
| MIN | 0-1 | 0.493 | 16.0 | 29.6 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| ARI | 0-1 | 0.491 | 14.2 | 28.1 | 14.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| HOU | 0-1 | 0.473 | 16.2 | 29.4 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| PIT | 0-1 | 0.471 | 11.3 | 28.5 | 14.7 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| CIN | 0-1 | 0.471 | 9.7 | 26.6 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 |
| CHI | 0-1 | 0.478 | 11.3 | 24.6 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| CAR | 0-1 | 0.475 | 8.9 | 23.3 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| SEA | 0-1 | 0.475 | 10.1 | 23.2 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| NYG | 0-1 | 0.471 | 7.9 | 21.1 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
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