2023-12-25

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

There were no new playoff eliminations Sunday, but Miami did clinch a playoff spot and Detroit clinched the NFC North, also eliminating Minnesota from winning that title. I figured that hadn't happened for awhile, and as it turns out, technically it never happened. Detroit last won their division back in 1993, when it was the NFC Central and included Tampa Bay.

Belichick Watch!
Bill Belichick now has 163 career losses with 2 games to play. The record is 165, so at most he can tie it this year. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.

RecordPctResult
0-249.93an unsatisfying tie
1-144.99Maybe next year
2-05.07

New England beat Denver and keeps Bill out of the record books alone for at least this year. We'll see if he is a head coach there or elsewhere next year. For now I guess we can track to see if he's at least still on track to tie it, which will be as unsatisfying as when Jeff Fisher was fired after tying it.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF11-30.791++++98.072.647.928.6
BAL11-30.77183.3++90.461.337.820.8
DAL10-50.75935.3++73.348.326.514.6
MIA11-40.72975.7++72.743.823.111.4
BUF9-60.72424.391.953.729.615.77.7
KC9-50.65398.799.156.227.111.54.7
DET11-40.596++++60.426.28.93.3
CLE10-50.56716.799.959.120.56.92.3
PHI10-40.53164.7++54.019.65.61.7
TB8-70.55089.789.732.712.04.01.3
LAR8-70.547-74.932.29.33.41.1
JAX8-70.47764.278.427.97.52.00.5
MIN7-80.532-27.711.43.11.10.3
HOU8-70.49418.843.214.74.11.20.3
SEA8-70.438-63.220.94.31.20.3
IND8-70.46817.046.814.73.71.00.3
GB7-80.504-26.610.42.60.80.2
NO7-80.5705.99.43.81.30.50.2
CIN8-70.447-19.45.01.20.30.1
ATL7-80.4984.48.02.80.80.20.1
PIT8-70.420-13.13.40.80.20.0
LV6-80.4670.75.61.50.40.10.0
DEN7-80.4090.62.70.70.10.00.0
CHI6-90.439-0.20.10.00.00.0
NYG5-90.213-0.10.00.00.00.0
LAC5-100.418------
TEN5-100.399------
NYJ6-90.311------
ARI3-120.274------
WSH4-110.274------
NE4-110.257------
CAR2-130.231------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore

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