2023-11-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 11, Thursday

Baltimore over San Francisco

We finally had an important game on a Thursday or Monday; it seems like those days almost never have any meaningful movement. Baltimore beat Cincinnati to start Week 11. While Cincinnati was only 5-4, a division win is always extra helpful for tiebreaker purposes.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL8-30.71566.398.176.450.632.219.7
SF6-30.68181.997.069.342.825.614.2
KC7-20.63393.397.776.643.421.911.4
DAL6-30.66420.194.762.236.220.711.1
PHI8-10.59679.999.979.240.919.79.1
CLE6-30.58723.987.250.323.911.05.2
DET7-20.56670.496.254.325.011.34.9
MIA6-30.58966.481.145.621.710.14.8
BUF5-50.64128.241.623.512.46.53.4
MIN6-40.54728.987.442.418.58.03.3
HOU5-40.54738.263.231.613.35.62.4
JAX6-30.51249.673.534.613.55.22.1
NO5-50.53453.062.127.011.44.92.0
SEA6-30.49817.677.933.112.95.01.9
TB4-50.51130.741.717.26.92.81.1
PIT6-30.4419.658.522.47.22.30.8
LAC4-50.5414.022.210.14.21.80.8
IND5-50.48910.334.314.05.01.90.7
GB3-60.4940.613.45.32.00.80.3
ATL4-60.44116.219.36.52.20.70.2
CIN5-50.4520.212.64.51.50.50.2
NYJ4-50.4325.39.03.21.00.30.1
LV5-50.4252.110.03.41.10.30.1
LAR3-60.4470.55.92.10.70.20.1
DEN4-50.4120.56.92.20.70.20.1
TEN3-60.4401.94.01.40.50.10.0
WSH4-60.4020.02.90.90.30.10.0
CHI3-70.4060.11.60.50.10.00.0
CAR1-80.3440.10.10.00.00.00.0
ARI2-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0
NE2-80.3090.00.00.00.00.00.0
NYG2-80.2550.00.00.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco

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