2024-01-14

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Houston and Kansas City both won their home games despite being slight and very-slight underdogs, so Cleveland and Miami are out. You'll notice Cleveland is listed even below non-playoff team New Orleans, because anyone who has no chance at the Super Bowl is sorted by strength. We'll eventually see several teams below them, due to their very good point differential.

So who am I rooting for Sunday

Green Bay at Dallas (76%)
Just for the chaos of it all, let's root for Green Bay. They're barely above .500 and Dallas was crowned a potential Super Bowl winner very early this year.

Los Angeles at Detroit (56%)
This game has two QBs that were traded for each other, and somehow both teams got better. I guess I'll root for Detroit, because they haven't won anything in forever (They last won a playoff game in 1992, and before that it was 1957!), and because I'm petty and still mad at Stan Kroenke.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL13-40.833++++++81.655.632.8
SF12-50.814++++++78.448.727.0
DAL12-50.805++++75.956.931.216.8
BUF11-60.750++++78.347.120.79.7
KC11-60.665++++++44.715.65.8
DET12-50.612++++56.219.76.52.1
HOU10-70.548++++++23.57.11.9
TB9-80.550++++54.215.24.31.2
LAR10-70.551-++43.812.83.71.0
GB9-80.566-++24.15.52.80.8
PHI11-60.509-++45.811.42.90.7
PIT10-70.453-++21.73.11.00.2
MIA11-60.669-++----
NO9-80.648------
CLE11-60.566-++----
JAX9-80.512------
LV8-90.502------
IND9-80.465------
CIN9-80.465------
MIN7-100.462------
CHI7-100.462------
SEA9-80.427------
LAC5-120.398------
DEN8-90.394------
ATL7-100.391------
TEN6-110.367------
NYJ7-100.304------
ARI4-130.279------
NYG6-110.222------
NE4-130.215------
WSH4-130.207------
CAR2-150.158------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco

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