Before Sunday, there were 10 playoff spots locked up, and everything went mostly as expected. Jacksonville was the one exception, still 67.6% likely to win their division, and instead they are out of the playoffs. It wasn't a huge upset, as the teams that made the playoffs instead were Pittsburgh and Buffalo, who were at 61% and 71%, respectively.
Belichick Watch!
Well, he beat the odds and only tied the record at 165 all-time losses. Back in Week 13 I gave that a 33% chance of happening, and a 43% chance of losing even more. Congrats I guess? Maybe he can get 2 good seasons, or 3 mediocre ones, at a new team and win 27 games to break that record. One thing he likely can't do is reach George Halas' 31 ties.
Math Time!
Also, I found a bug in my software I expect has been there for years, but almost never been a big deal. It was in the 3-way tiebreaker for teams in different divisions, which we actually have this year with San Francisco, Dallas, and Detroit all 12-5. Because it was sort of complicated to calculate the head to head sweep, including the possibility that the teams didn't play each other that year, I calculated 3 winning percentages, 1v2, 1v3, and 2v3. For no particular reason the teams started in the order Dallas-SF-Detroit. By checking if various pairs of them were 1 or 0, I could either declare the winner if one team beat the other two, or the loser if one team lost to the other two, then revert to the 2 team tiebreaker. There was a slight bug in what I wrote. The first five checks were fine, but the last case, where I was checking if Team 1 lost to both teams, I was checking that 1v2 was .000, and that 1v3 was 1.000. Both should have been 0.000 for a valid check. Consequently I incorrectly marked Dallas as #3 and then proceeded to break the SF-Detroit tie. Instead, that tiebreaker should have been skipped since no one swept the other two teams. I spotted this because my original output had Dallas and Detroit's matchups swapped, with Dallas playing LA and Detroit against Green Bay. That probably had a minor effect on my numbers this year, but it was much more pronounced now that every outcome has that 3-way tie.
Traditionally, I now list who I'm rooting for in each game.
Cleveland (52%) at Houston
I don't feel strongly at all about this one. I guess let's root for old man Joe Flacco to get one more run. He's on Cleveland in case you haven't been paying attention. On paper at least, this is a close one with the road team favored.
Miami (50.4%) at Kansas City
...except this one is even closer, also with the road team favored. Here's the game everyone's complaining about being on streaming, including me. The NFL could at least throw St. Louis a bone and air the game OTA like they are in Kansas City. Without our own team, what are we really but an extension of the KC market? Obviously, I'll be rooting for Kansas City. We'll see if I can weasel my way into actually getting to watch this game.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 13-4 | 0.833 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 77.8 | 53.4 | 31.5 |
| SF | 12-5 | 0.814 | ++ | ++ | ++ | 78.4 | 48.7 | 27.1 |
| DAL | 12-5 | 0.805 | ++ | ++ | 76.0 | 57.0 | 31.2 | 16.9 |
| BUF | 11-6 | 0.750 | ++ | ++ | 78.3 | 51.2 | 22.5 | 10.6 |
| KC | 11-6 | 0.665 | ++ | ++ | 49.6 | 22.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 |
| MIA | 11-6 | 0.669 | - | ++ | 50.4 | 18.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 |
| DET | 12-5 | 0.612 | ++ | ++ | 56.3 | 19.7 | 6.5 | 2.1 |
| CLE | 11-6 | 0.566 | - | ++ | 51.8 | 14.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 |
| TB | 9-8 | 0.550 | ++ | ++ | 54.2 | 15.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 |
| LAR | 10-7 | 0.551 | - | ++ | 43.7 | 12.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| HOU | 10-7 | 0.548 | ++ | ++ | 48.2 | 13.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| GB | 9-8 | 0.566 | - | ++ | 24.0 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| PHI | 11-6 | 0.509 | - | ++ | 45.8 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| PIT | 10-7 | 0.453 | - | ++ | 21.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| NO | 9-8 | 0.648 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| JAX | 9-8 | 0.512 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LV | 8-9 | 0.502 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| IND | 9-8 | 0.465 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CIN | 9-8 | 0.465 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MIN | 7-10 | 0.462 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CHI | 7-10 | 0.462 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| SEA | 9-8 | 0.427 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| LAC | 5-12 | 0.398 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| DEN | 8-9 | 0.394 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ATL | 7-10 | 0.391 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TEN | 6-11 | 0.367 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYJ | 7-10 | 0.304 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| ARI | 4-13 | 0.279 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NYG | 6-11 | 0.222 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NE | 4-13 | 0.215 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| WSH | 4-13 | 0.207 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| CAR | 2-15 | 0.158 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
No comments:
Post a Comment