Copy, Paste, Repeat:
Each year I project the Super Bowl match-up after each day of games. The method is not of my own design, but the implementation is. Each team's strength is determined based on points scored and points allowed, and scaled to make the average of all teams .500. Then, the remainder of the season and playoffs are simulated millions of times, and I report to you the chances of each team reaching each round of the playoffs. It's had mixed results in the past, but that's the nature of taking 1 weighted random sample out of millions of potential outcomes.
I've really got to stop taking the entire football offseason off. Life's busy these days. I've made some progress on a new version of my simulation software but it's not quite ready, hence I'll go with the old one for the 2024 season. Maybe by UFL season we'll have the more generic one. I'm posting this a bit late but backdating so you won't know it. Unless you actually read this paragraph, I guess.
Week 1 isn't terribly meaningful, usually. Last year predicted Dallas over Cleveland. They did win 23 games combined, but both lost in the first round of the playoffs. As a quick reminder, my projection as stated in the opening line consists of the two teams most likely to win the two conferences, with the stronger one listed as the winner. So while LA is the most likely winner (by a hair), New Orleans wins the matchup between them.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 1-0 | 0.524 | 40.3 | 63.5 | 39.4 | 20.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 |
| NO | 1-0 | 0.529 | 41.6 | 63.1 | 38.6 | 20.1 | 10.4 | 5.5 |
| PIT | 1-0 | 0.521 | 46.5 | 63.1 | 38.6 | 20.0 | 10.4 | 5.3 |
| MIN | 1-0 | 0.529 | 33.4 | 59.9 | 36.6 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 5.2 |
| NE | 1-0 | 0.518 | 31.1 | 59.2 | 36.1 | 18.6 | 9.6 | 4.9 |
| DAL | 1-0 | 0.522 | 39.3 | 59.0 | 35.4 | 18.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 |
| TB | 1-0 | 0.521 | 36.2 | 59.2 | 35.5 | 18.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 |
| KC | 1-0 | 0.512 | 33.8 | 58.3 | 35.0 | 17.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 |
| SF | 1-0 | 0.519 | 35.7 | 55.0 | 32.4 | 16.5 | 8.4 | 4.3 |
| MIA | 1-0 | 0.507 | 29.2 | 56.6 | 33.6 | 16.9 | 8.5 | 4.2 |
| BUF | 1-0 | 0.508 | 28.6 | 54.6 | 32.4 | 16.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 |
| HOU | 1-0 | 0.503 | 41.2 | 57.6 | 33.4 | 16.7 | 8.3 | 4.1 |
| PHI | 1-0 | 0.507 | 34.2 | 56.0 | 32.4 | 16.1 | 7.9 | 4.0 |
| CHI | 1-0 | 0.514 | 28.4 | 52.8 | 30.8 | 15.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 |
| SEA | 1-0 | 0.511 | 34.2 | 53.8 | 31.1 | 15.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 |
| DET | 1-0 | 0.511 | 26.4 | 51.9 | 30.1 | 15.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 |
| IND | 0-1 | 0.497 | 18.8 | 34.4 | 18.6 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| JAX | 0-1 | 0.493 | 20.8 | 34.5 | 18.4 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| DEN | 0-1 | 0.489 | 15.2 | 33.3 | 17.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| TEN | 0-1 | 0.486 | 19.1 | 33.3 | 17.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 |
| BAL | 0-1 | 0.488 | 18.5 | 32.7 | 17.2 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 |
| ARI | 0-1 | 0.492 | 15.5 | 30.6 | 16.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| CIN | 0-1 | 0.482 | 18.3 | 31.8 | 16.5 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| CLE | 0-1 | 0.478 | 16.6 | 31.0 | 16.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| GB | 0-1 | 0.493 | 11.8 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| NYJ | 0-1 | 0.481 | 11.1 | 29.0 | 15.3 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| LAR | 0-1 | 0.489 | 14.5 | 27.9 | 14.5 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| ATL | 0-1 | 0.479 | 12.5 | 27.4 | 14.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| LV | 0-1 | 0.476 | 10.7 | 27.1 | 13.9 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| WSH | 0-1 | 0.479 | 13.9 | 27.3 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| NYG | 0-1 | 0.471 | 12.6 | 24.7 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| CAR | 0-1 | 0.471 | 9.7 | 23.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
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