San Francisco did take back the NFC top spot, also lifting Dallas's division chances by beating Philadelphia in the process. I now show two teams eliminated from the playoffs. Carolina is officially eliminated (according to official sources I mean), but New England does have a fighting chance. However, my usual method of making a fake table of games and forcing certain games to go a certain way still struggled to get them even up to 1%. For example, New England can go 7-10 at best now, so I could have all 8-win teams win out, and all AFC-NFC games won by the NFC teams. Suffice it to say, they would need a ridiculous amount of help to make the playoffs, and possibly some ridiculous scores to get some points tiebreakers set up correctly.
Belichick Watch!
Bill Belichick now has 162 career losses with 5 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.
| Record | Pct | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | 17.62 | Broken! |
| 1-4 | 38.07 | |
| 2-3 | 30.73 | an unsatisfying tie |
| 3-2 | 11.49 | Maybe next year |
| 4-1 | 1.97 | |
| 5-0 | 0.12 |
As of last week, New England had 6 games left. The LA Chargers were the 3rd best team by strength, so beating them would have pushed them to much better odds to reach 2-4 and keep Bill out of the record books. As alluded to above, they did not seize that opportunity, and lost 6-0. He now has a 55.69% chance of breaking the record, and a 30.73% chance of tying it.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 9-3 | 0.756 | 99.3 | 100.0 | 84.8 | 57.9 | 36.8 | 22.5 |
| BAL | 9-3 | 0.736 | 88.3 | 99.2 | 81.6 | 54.2 | 34.4 | 19.1 |
| DAL | 9-3 | 0.741 | 29.1 | 99.9 | 77.7 | 50.4 | 30.1 | 17.8 |
| MIA | 9-3 | 0.674 | 93.6 | 98.4 | 71.7 | 41.0 | 21.5 | 10.4 |
| KC | 8-4 | 0.638 | 95.2 | 98.1 | 67.2 | 35.0 | 16.6 | 7.4 |
| PHI | 10-2 | 0.568 | 70.9 | 100.0 | 74.9 | 33.2 | 12.0 | 4.9 |
| JAX | 8-3 | 0.557 | 82.3 | 97.3 | 57.3 | 23.9 | 9.2 | 3.4 |
| DET | 9-3 | 0.569 | 86.1 | 98.4 | 54.2 | 20.9 | 8.0 | 3.3 |
| HOU | 7-5 | 0.562 | 10.3 | 74.3 | 32.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 |
| BUF | 6-6 | 0.675 | 6.4 | 22.5 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| CLE | 7-5 | 0.527 | 7.4 | 69.5 | 28.5 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| GB | 6-6 | 0.531 | 5.0 | 69.4 | 28.2 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| MIN | 6-6 | 0.543 | 8.9 | 58.9 | 25.0 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 |
| IND | 7-5 | 0.507 | 7.3 | 65.6 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 |
| LAR | 6-6 | 0.530 | 0.7 | 35.3 | 13.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| ATL | 6-6 | 0.469 | 60.1 | 63.1 | 18.6 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| NO | 5-7 | 0.504 | 19.2 | 25.5 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| TB | 5-7 | 0.474 | 20.6 | 26.5 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| PIT | 7-5 | 0.410 | 4.3 | 44.3 | 12.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| LAC | 5-7 | 0.533 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| SEA | 6-6 | 0.451 | 0.1 | 22.1 | 6.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| DEN | 6-6 | 0.429 | 2.2 | 15.3 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| CIN | 5-6 | 0.438 | 0.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| LV | 5-7 | 0.381 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 4-8 | 0.398 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TEN | 4-8 | 0.408 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 4-8 | 0.319 | - | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 4-8 | 0.248 | - | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WSH | 4-9 | 0.292 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 3-10 | 0.312 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CAR | 1-11 | 0.280 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NE | 2-10 | 0.266 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
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