Dallas won a close game 41-35 over Seattle on Thursday, and at least for now is back on top of the NFC. They are also stronger than Baltimore, so favored in the projection. San Francisco can likely take back that crown on Sunday, but they have to play at Philadelphia. And beating Philadelphia improves Dallas' playoff standing. So maybe not. Baltimore is off this week, presenting an opportunity for Kansas City and Miami to make up some ground on Sunday, and Jacksonville on Monday. We could have all 4 AFC division leaders at 9-3 by the end of this week.
Here's another fun distraction. Bill Belichick now has 161 career losses with 6 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.
| Record | Pct | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | 11.8 | Broken! |
| 1-5 | 31.3 | |
| 2-4 | 33.1 | an unsatisfying tie |
| 3-3 | 17.9 | Maybe next year |
| 4-2 | 5.2 | |
| 5-1 | 0.8 | |
| 6-0 | 0.04 |
So, we have a 33.1% chance he ties the record with Dan Reeves and Jeff Fisher, a 43.1% chance he breaks it, and 23.8% chance he doesn't. Rumor has it he'll retire after this year, but you never know. He'd almost certainly break the record in the 2024 season if he doesn't this year. Also, while I was never a big Patriots fan, I've got to acknowledge his achievements. He's got 300 wins, compared to the 190 and 173 by Reeves and Fisher, so this record is of course no indication of him being the worst ever, but rather being so good he could hang around long enough to accrue that many losses.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 9-3 | 0.736 | 77.0 | 99.1 | 79.1 | 52.9 | 34.0 | 19.4 |
| DAL | 9-3 | 0.741 | 19.6 | 100.0 | 77.4 | 49.7 | 30.9 | 18.5 |
| SF | 8-3 | 0.730 | 98.9 | 99.9 | 78.7 | 50.6 | 30.4 | 17.8 |
| KC | 8-3 | 0.652 | 97.5 | 99.2 | 76.6 | 43.2 | 21.6 | 10.3 |
| PHI | 10-1 | 0.606 | 80.4 | 100.0 | 86.0 | 43.3 | 18.0 | 8.1 |
| MIA | 8-3 | 0.635 | 88.5 | 95.9 | 61.5 | 31.4 | 15.3 | 7.0 |
| JAX | 8-3 | 0.557 | 87.3 | 96.9 | 54.8 | 22.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 |
| DET | 8-3 | 0.562 | 81.9 | 96.6 | 51.4 | 19.1 | 7.6 | 3.1 |
| CLE | 7-4 | 0.563 | 14.8 | 82.2 | 39.0 | 16.3 | 6.8 | 2.6 |
| BUF | 6-6 | 0.675 | 11.5 | 23.4 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| MIN | 6-6 | 0.543 | 14.2 | 67.7 | 29.4 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 |
| HOU | 6-5 | 0.552 | 7.4 | 54.8 | 23.8 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| GB | 5-6 | 0.515 | 3.9 | 54.2 | 21.0 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| NO | 5-6 | 0.515 | 38.9 | 49.4 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| IND | 6-5 | 0.502 | 5.3 | 47.2 | 18.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| PIT | 7-4 | 0.444 | 8.2 | 63.0 | 21.2 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| ATL | 5-6 | 0.459 | 45.8 | 52.0 | 14.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| LAR | 5-6 | 0.496 | 0.8 | 24.7 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| SEA | 6-6 | 0.451 | 0.3 | 31.9 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| DEN | 6-5 | 0.439 | 1.7 | 27.7 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| TB | 4-7 | 0.467 | 15.2 | 21.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| LAC | 4-7 | 0.520 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| CIN | 5-6 | 0.438 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| CHI | 4-8 | 0.398 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| LV | 5-7 | 0.381 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| TEN | 4-7 | 0.411 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYJ | 4-7 | 0.336 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WSH | 4-8 | 0.331 | - | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NYG | 4-8 | 0.248 | - | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| CAR | 1-10 | 0.290 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| NE | 2-9 | 0.292 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| ARI | 2-10 | 0.297 | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
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