2023-12-17

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, Saturday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

The first post-college Saturday was fairly uneventful, with no new eliminations or clinches out of the 3 games played. Cincinnati upset Minnesota to leave them both in the middle, Indianapolis put one of the final nails in the coffin for Pittsburgh, and Detroit has almost secured a playoff spot (>99%) by beating Denver. If you've noticed the ordering at the top, something slightly interesting did happen. Dallas has fallen below Baltimore in overall Super Bowl odds. I think that's because Dallas will eventually play Detroit, and that game is now more tipped towards Detroit because of their big win, thus slightly lowering their chances of winning NFC East. Baltimore's division chances are also up because they will play Pittsburgh, now weaker than before.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF10-30.776100.0++90.865.140.825.5
BAL10-30.74291.299.989.961.339.120.4
DAL10-30.76947.0100.080.455.833.120.4
MIA9-40.67575.895.665.937.619.28.6
KC8-50.63495.297.763.332.514.75.9
BUF7-60.68424.246.327.314.77.83.5
DET10-40.58690.5100.056.921.87.93.3
PHI10-30.53653.0100.063.823.77.22.6
JAX8-50.54174.988.144.617.06.22.0
CLE8-50.5348.685.939.214.75.41.7
MIN7-70.5467.759.925.38.42.91.1
NO6-70.54933.644.917.16.02.10.8
IND8-60.50214.958.823.17.62.70.8
GB6-70.5271.848.918.96.02.00.7
HOU7-60.51610.143.818.16.22.20.7
CIN8-60.4920.148.918.25.82.00.6
TB6-70.48335.447.515.64.61.40.4
LAR6-70.5170.031.911.23.51.20.4
ATL6-70.46131.038.011.83.30.90.3
SEA6-70.429-24.06.91.50.40.1
DEN7-70.4143.321.16.41.60.50.1
LV6-80.4671.55.31.90.60.20.0
PIT7-70.3660.17.82.00.40.10.0
CHI5-80.425-3.91.10.20.10.0
TEN5-80.4130.10.50.10.00.00.0
NYJ5-80.367-0.30.10.00.00.0
NYG5-80.246-1.00.10.00.00.0
LAC5-90.4220.00.00.00.00.00.0
WSH4-90.291-0.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-100.312-0.00.00.00.00.0
NE3-100.268------
CAR1-120.244------

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore

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