Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 15, Final

San Francisco over Baltimore.

I haven't run the numbers on this, but it feels like we're getting a lot more upsets in night games this year. Seattle needed a win just to get to .500, and they got it over Philadelphia, who was the NFC favorite just a few weeks ago. That kept the NFC East race interesting after Dallas also lost this week. That loss also boosted San Francisco from 73% to 89% to get the #1 seed and the bye week.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	11-3	0.791	++	++	97.6	72.5	48.0	28.9
BAL	11-3	0.771	92.3	++	92.3	63.9	40.5	22.3
DAL	10-4	0.755	42.7	++	74.1	49.4	26.7	14.8
MIA	10-4	0.721	68.2	98.8	70.5	42.1	22.0	10.7
KC	9-5	0.653	97.7	98.7	61.7	30.5	13.0	5.4
BUF	8-6	0.718	31.8	63.7	37.8	20.8	11.0	5.3
DET	10-4	0.586	92.1	99.9	57.6	23.8	8.0	3.0
PHI	10-4	0.531	57.3	++	54.2	19.7	5.7	1.8
CLE	9-5	0.541	7.7	93.5	44.3	14.9	4.9	1.5
NO	7-7	0.587	37.4	51.8	22.2	8.3	3.1	1.2
MIN	7-7	0.546	7.9	56.8	24.8	7.6	2.6	0.9
JAX	8-6	0.512	59.4	74.6	31.5	9.7	3.0	0.9
TB	7-7	0.512	55.0	69.6	25.2	7.9	2.4	0.7
HOU	8-6	0.522	21.0	54.6	22.3	7.0	2.3	0.7
LAR	7-7	0.532	-	41.5	16.9	4.7	1.7	0.5
IND	8-6	0.502	19.6	50.4	18.8	5.6	1.7	0.5
CIN	8-6	0.492	-	42.2	14.4	4.1	1.3	0.3
SEA	7-7	0.433	-	48.6	15.9	3.3	0.9	0.2
GB	6-8	0.498	-	21.6	8.2	2.0	0.7	0.2
DEN	7-7	0.414	1.5	16.7	4.5	1.0	0.3	0.1
ATL	6-8	0.455	7.6	9.5	2.9	0.8	0.2	0.1
LV	6-8	0.467	0.8	3.1	1.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
PIT	7-7	0.367	-	3.7	0.8	0.2	0.0	0.0
CHI	5-9	0.418	-	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	5-9	0.214	-	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
LAC	5-9	0.422	-	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
TEN	5-9	0.406	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	5-9	0.301	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	3-11	0.294	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-10	0.278	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	3-11	0.251	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-12	0.233	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore