2023-11-06

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Baltimore over Philadelphia

Dallas loses to Philadelphia, which is a huge swing for the NFC East division title, and that puts Philadelphia on top of the NFC overall for the first time this year. Philadelphia's 99.9% playoff chances are rounded up here, so I'm not marking them officially as the first team to 99.9%. It's more like 99.893%. Yes, I'd be that professor who won't round your grade.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
BAL7-20.69878.697.476.949.030.118.7
KC7-20.63394.598.174.241.421.111.6
PHI8-10.59686.099.984.245.723.611.1
SF5-30.63575.292.360.735.219.910.2
DAL5-30.62414.089.054.630.316.88.4
DET6-20.56572.193.754.326.512.85.6
BUF5-40.64235.458.834.318.19.55.3
JAX6-20.57271.786.349.022.49.94.8
MIA6-30.58948.375.641.519.69.14.6
CLE5-30.58713.170.837.617.68.24.2
NO5-40.55166.877.839.018.28.53.6
MIN5-40.53124.874.535.815.97.12.9
SEA5-30.49223.468.430.412.45.11.9
HOU4-40.54320.244.721.08.83.71.7
NYJ4-30.49316.435.614.95.62.10.9
GB3-50.5023.028.112.25.02.10.8
CIN5-30.4853.032.313.14.71.70.7
TB3-50.48112.625.510.54.11.70.6
PIT5-30.4315.341.314.54.61.50.5
IND4-50.4844.724.79.63.41.30.5
ATL4-50.44420.431.011.54.21.50.5
LAC3-40.5113.917.27.22.81.10.5
TEN3-50.4733.48.03.11.10.40.1
LAR3-60.4471.47.22.71.00.40.1
WSH4-50.4070.010.63.61.20.40.1
LV4-50.4201.45.91.90.60.20.1
DEN3-50.4100.33.11.00.30.10.0
CHI2-70.4060.21.40.50.20.10.0
CAR1-70.3570.20.30.10.00.00.0
NE2-70.3280.00.20.00.00.00.0
NYG2-70.2850.00.20.00.00.00.0
ARI1-80.3430.00.10.00.00.00.0

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas

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