Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 14, Sunday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

The projection stayed the same, but there was a lot of jockeying in the middle of the playoff pack. Dallas beat Philadelphia to tie them for the division, with Dallas currently winning the tiebreaker for divisional record (4-1 to 3-1). Buffalo beat Kansas City, which won't knock them out of the playoffs (still 97% likely) but may knock them out of a bye. KC previously had a 22% chance of being the #1 seed, and is now down to 8%. I should really add tracking for the frequency of all seeds, but for now I only specifically track #1 in each conference. On a fun statistical note, San Francisco hasn't quite clinched a playoff spot, but is up to 6 9s, 99.9999%.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	10-3	0.776	100.0	100.0	90.5	65.2	41.0	25.7
DAL	10-3	0.769	47.4	100.0	80.3	56.5	33.6	20.7
BAL	10-3	0.741	90.3	99.8	87.7	60.1	38.2	20.0
MIA	9-3	0.674	88.6	98.7	74.2	43.9	22.2	9.9
KC	8-5	0.634	90.0	97.2	62.0	31.1	14.3	5.8
BUF	7-6	0.684	11.4	41.5	23.8	12.4	6.7	3.1
PHI	10-3	0.536	52.6	100.0	63.4	24.0	7.3	2.7
DET	9-4	0.545	67.1	95.7	47.6	16.4	5.4	2.0
JAX	8-5	0.541	78.9	90.1	45.1	17.0	6.3	2.0
CLE	8-5	0.534	8.9	85.9	39.5	14.6	5.4	1.7
MIN	7-6	0.553	22.3	74.7	34.4	11.8	4.2	1.6
GB	6-6	0.531	10.5	70.6	30.0	9.7	3.3	1.2
HOU	7-6	0.516	11.2	48.2	20.0	6.9	2.5	0.7
NO	6-7	0.549	33.3	39.3	15.1	5.4	1.9	0.7
IND	7-6	0.472	9.8	43.4	15.7	4.7	1.5	0.4
TB	6-7	0.483	35.0	42.7	14.3	4.3	1.3	0.4
DEN	7-6	0.459	9.1	41.4	14.5	4.3	1.3	0.3
LAR	6-7	0.517	0.0	21.8	7.6	2.4	0.8	0.3
CIN	7-6	0.486	0.0	25.5	9.3	2.9	1.0	0.3
ATL	6-7	0.461	31.7	36.6	11.5	3.3	0.9	0.3
PIT	7-6	0.404	0.8	24.5	7.1	1.8	0.5	0.1
SEA	6-7	0.429	-	15.5	4.6	1.0	0.3	0.1
LAC	5-8	0.500	0.6	2.3	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.0
CHI	5-8	0.425	-	2.8	0.7	0.2	0.0	0.0
LV	5-8	0.366	0.3	0.9	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
NYJ	5-8	0.367	-	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
TEN	4-8	0.408	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
NYG	4-8	0.248	-	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
WSH	4-9	0.292	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
ARI	3-10	0.312	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	-
NE	3-10	0.268	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	1-12	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore