2023-12-08

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 14, Thursday

San Francisco over Baltimore.

Pittsburgh is no powerhouse, but New England is truly awful this year, so it was surprising to see Pittsburgh lose at home on Thursday and really tank their playoff chances and boost up Baltimore. That also means we have to update...
Belichick Watch!
Bill Belichick now has 162 career losses with 4 games to play. The record is 165, so it's definitely something he could break. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.

RecordPctResult
0-426.51Broken!
1-343.90an unsatisfying tie
2-224.08Maybe next year
3-15.14
4-00.37

Like I said, Pittsburgh wasn't the strongest of the remaining New England opponents, with only the New York Jets being worse. Still, win is a win, and they just need one more to avoid breaking the record. He's at a 26.51% chance of breaking the record, down from 55.69%, but up to 43.90% to tie it, up from 30.73%.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SF9-30.75699.3100.084.857.936.822.4
BAL9-30.73790.499.482.655.034.819.3
DAL9-30.74229.199.977.750.430.117.8
MIA9-30.67593.698.873.342.322.010.6
KC8-40.63895.198.368.135.716.87.4
PHI10-20.56870.9100.074.933.212.04.8
DET9-30.56986.298.454.220.98.03.3
JAX8-40.55069.194.449.119.47.42.7
HOU7-50.56217.876.935.013.95.72.1
BUF6-60.6756.425.214.07.23.91.9
CLE7-50.5278.071.730.111.14.11.4
GB6-60.5315.069.428.210.23.71.3
MIN6-60.5438.858.624.99.13.41.3
IND7-50.50713.167.726.69.33.31.1
LAR6-60.5300.735.313.24.81.80.7
ATL6-60.46960.163.018.65.91.90.6
NO5-70.50419.225.58.32.91.00.3
TB5-70.47420.726.68.02.60.80.3
LAC5-70.5332.311.14.51.60.60.2
SEA6-60.4510.122.27.02.00.60.2
PIT7-60.4041.524.46.81.80.50.1
DEN6-60.4292.218.15.51.50.50.1
CIN6-60.4460.111.93.81.10.30.1
LV5-70.3810.41.80.50.10.00.0
CHI4-80.3980.00.80.20.00.00.0
TEN4-80.4080.00.10.00.00.00.0
NYJ4-80.319-0.10.00.00.00.0
NYG4-80.248-0.20.00.00.00.0
WSH4-90.292-0.00.00.00.00.0
ARI3-100.312-0.00.00.00.00.0
CAR1-110.280------
NE3-100.268-0.00.0---

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore

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