Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 17, Final

Baltimore over San Francisco

Everything's starting to come together now. There's still one week left, with 2 games Saturday and 14 on Sunday. I thought in the past the final week was all on Sunday, but maybe I'm misremembering. The #1 seeds are decided, which is more important now that there is only one bye per conference. Those are, of course, Baltimore and San Francisco, and you can see that they have already clinched spots in the wildcard round. Chicago, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and Denver were all eliminated from the playoffs, leaving Kansas City as the last team standing in the AFC West. Other than Baltimore in the AFC North though, no other division was claimed, so 4 remain (AFC South and East, NFC South and East).

Belichick Watch!
Bill Belichick now has 164 career losses with 1 game to play. The record is 165, so at most he can tie it this year. Assuming no ties and no quitting/firing, here's his likelihood of finishing the season at each record.

Record	Pct	Result
0-1	54.43	an unsatisfying tie
1-0	45.57	Maybe next year

New England lost to Buffalo to keep Bill on the path to keep things somewhat interesting, but like I said, there's something so unsatisfying about a tie. There's nothing at stake but draft picks and pride (if any) in next week's game against the New York Jets, so who knows what will happen.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-3	0.830	++	++	++	74.8	53.2	32.4
SF	12-4	0.809	++	++	++	78.1	51.4	28.9
DAL	11-5	0.767	92.6	++	74.9	53.0	26.8	13.5
BUF	10-6	0.735	57.1	96.0	64.3	35.4	16.7	7.9
MIA	11-5	0.675	42.9	++	52.2	24.0	9.5	3.9
KC	10-6	0.660	++	++	52.7	26.2	9.0	3.6
DET	11-5	0.596	++	++	55.2	20.9	6.7	2.2
CLE	11-5	0.598	-	++	57.6	20.4	6.4	2.1
PHI	11-5	0.537	7.4	++	50.7	15.2	4.3	1.2
LAR	9-7	0.549	-	++	35.7	9.6	3.5	1.0
TB	8-8	0.529	83.1	83.1	39.5	11.5	3.2	0.9
JAX	9-7	0.528	67.6	83.1	33.9	9.6	2.6	0.7
GB	8-8	0.549	-	61.3	26.4	7.4	2.5	0.7
HOU	9-7	0.540	18.4	56.7	20.8	5.8	1.7	0.5
NO	8-8	0.591	10.7	18.6	8.5	2.7	1.0	0.3
IND	9-7	0.473	14.0	43.3	13.3	3.0	0.8	0.2
SEA	8-8	0.426	-	28.0	6.1	0.9	0.3	0.1
PIT	9-7	0.438	-	20.9	5.2	0.8	0.2	0.0
ATL	7-9	0.454	6.1	6.1	2.5	0.6	0.1	0.0
MIN	7-9	0.483	-	2.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	7-9	0.479	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	7-9	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	8-8	0.431	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-8	0.419	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-11	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-11	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-12	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-10	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-12	0.248	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-14	0.186	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco