Tenets of Wilson: 2024-01

2024-01-22

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Divisional Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Both teams I rooted for won on Sunday, and they'll both travel to play some juggernauts in the Conference championships.

Kansas City at Baltimore (72%)
As usual, I'm rooting for Kansas City. By the numbers it's looking a little scary, though.

Detroit at San Francisco (74%)
I feel like my rooting interest in this one will depend on the first game. If Kansas City wins, I'll root for Detroit, both because they are the underdog, and because they should be an easier opponent in the Super Bowl. If Baltimore wins, I think I'll root for San Francisco, so that my matchup projection since week 10 (And also briefly in week 3) will be proven accurate.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.834	++	++	++	++	71.6	42.5
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	++	73.5	38.9
KC	11-6	0.666	++	++	++	++	28.4	10.7
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	++	++	26.5	7.9
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	-	-	-	-
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	++	-	-	-
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	++	-	-	-
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	-	-	-	-
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	++	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	++	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco, Buffalo, and Dallas (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Super Bowl win: San Francisco (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Super Bowl win: Baltimore (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 4, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 11, Final)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Philadelphia (Week 12, Final)
First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs: San Francisco (Week 14, Final)
First to clinch a division: San Francisco (Week 15, Sunday)
First to clinch a first-round bye: Baltimore and San Francisco (Week 17, Final)

First teams eliminated from a division: Washington and New York, NFC East (Week 12, Thursday)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1, Final] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Thursday] Dallas over Cleveland
[Week 2, Sunday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 2, Final] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 3, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 3, Sunday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 3, Final] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Thursday] San Francisco over Miami
[Week 4, Sunday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 4, Final] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Thursday] San Francisco over Buffalo
[Week 5, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 5, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 6, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Sunday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 7, Final] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Thursday] San Francisco over Kansas City
[Week 8, Sunday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 8, Final] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Thursday] Baltimore over Dallas
[Week 9, Sunday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 9, Final] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Thursday] Baltimore over Philadelphia
[Week 10, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 10, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 11, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Friday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 12, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 12, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 13, Thursday] Dallas over Baltimore
[Week 13, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 13, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 14, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 15, Final] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Thursday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Saturday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Sunday] San Francisco over Baltimore
[Week 16, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Thursday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 17, Final] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Week 18, Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Sunday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Wildcard Monday] Baltimore over San Francisco
[Divisional Saturday] Baltimore over San Francisco

2024-01-21

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Divisional Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

I was once again rooting for two upsets and got none. Houston kept it close for awhile but Baltimore pulled away with a 34-10 win, and Green Bay had the lead several times but lost it in the last 2 minutes for good, losing 24-21. With both #1 seeds winning, the projection remains for them to meet up.

So who do I want to travel to face yesterday's winners today?

Tampa Bay at Detroit (56%)
I'm not super invested in this one, so let's say Detroit, just for the history of it all.

Kansas City at Buffalo (60%)
I'll always root for Kansas City as my adopted home-ish team.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	++	75.5	39.3
BAL	13-4	0.834	++	++	++	++	66.2	39.2
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	++	60.1	22.5	10.6
KC	11-6	0.665	++	++	++	39.9	11.3	4.3
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	++	56.3	14.9	4.3
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	++	43.7	9.6	2.3
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	++	-	-	-
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	-	-	-	-
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	++	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-01-16

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard Monday

Baltimore over San Francisco

I got 0 of the two upsets I wanted on Monday. I hope this doesn't shape up as a year where I don't really care who wins the Super Bowl. It makes the game a little less exciting. Let's look forward to Saturday, when both #1s will play.

Houston at Baltimore (81%)
Baltimore is one of those teams I just don't care for. I don't have anything in particular against them, and my Steelers fandom is not nearly strong enough to care who their rivals are. But even though I rooted for Joe Flacco this year, I didn't care for him when he played for Baltimore. Maybe it stems back to them playing in the worst Super Bowl for me personally, XXXV, where they beat New York. The game wasn't great, and no big party came together. So anyway, go Houston, I guess.

Green Bay at San Francisco (77%)
I think I'll root for Green Bay to continue to upset the apple cart. They already took down the #2 team despite a 9-8 record, so why not #1 and then next week #3 or #4.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.834	++	++	++	80.5	53.2	33.9
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	77.0	58.2	32.0
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	++	60.1	26.5	13.8
KC	11-6	0.665	++	++	++	39.9	13.9	6.0
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	++	56.3	18.6	5.9
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	++	43.7	12.2	3.2
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	++	23.0	11.0	3.1
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	++	19.5	6.3	2.0
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	-	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-01-15

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

I'm a little worried that the rescheduled game in Buffalo is going to embolden the NFL to just do 2 games on Monday every year in wildcard weekend, much the way that 9/11 delayed the season and the Super Bowl by a week, planting it in February for the first time. Perhaps it should be the #5 at #4 so that at least one matchup can be determined by Sunday. I'd prefer a Sunday with 3 games though. I was pleased with both results yesterday, as Green Bay took down Dallas, and Detroit survived a comeback attempt by LA. Next week, Green Bay will travel to San Francisco, and Detroit will host the winner of tonight's Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay game. In the other game, Pittsburgh is playing for a chance to go to Baltimore (and send Houston to Kansas City), while Buffalo would get to host Kansas City (and send Houston to Baltimore).

So who am I rooting for Monday?

Pittsburgh at Buffalo (78%)
I usually root for Pittsburgh as one of my buddies' favorite teams, but I'll also be rooting for them this time to boost Kansas City's overall chances.

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay (54%)
I've never loved the Eagles, but I've always kind of liked them, dating back at least to when I had Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and Terrell Owens all on my fantasy football team. That must have been 2003 or 2004. So let's root for two upsets today.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.834	++	++	++	81.6	55.6	35.5
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	77.0	58.5	32.3
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	78.4	47.1	20.7	10.8
KC	11-6	0.665	++	++	++	44.7	15.5	6.7
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	++	58.2	19.2	6.1
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	++	23.0	11.2	3.2
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	++	23.5	7.0	2.3
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	54.2	23.7	6.6	1.8
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	45.8	18.1	4.5	1.1
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	21.6	3.1	1.0	0.3
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	-	-	-	-
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	-	-	-	-
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	-	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-01-14

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Wildcard Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Houston and Kansas City both won their home games despite being slight and very-slight underdogs, so Cleveland and Miami are out. You'll notice Cleveland is listed even below non-playoff team New Orleans, because anyone who has no chance at the Super Bowl is sorted by strength. We'll eventually see several teams below them, due to their very good point differential.

So who am I rooting for Sunday

Green Bay at Dallas (76%)
Just for the chaos of it all, let's root for Green Bay. They're barely above .500 and Dallas was crowned a potential Super Bowl winner very early this year.

Los Angeles at Detroit (56%)
This game has two QBs that were traded for each other, and somehow both teams got better. I guess I'll root for Detroit, because they haven't won anything in forever (They last won a playoff game in 1992, and before that it was 1957!), and because I'm petty and still mad at Stan Kroenke.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.833	++	++	++	81.6	55.6	32.8
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	78.4	48.7	27.0
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	75.9	56.9	31.2	16.8
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	78.3	47.1	20.7	9.7
KC	11-6	0.665	++	++	++	44.7	15.6	5.8
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	56.2	19.7	6.5	2.1
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	++	23.5	7.1	1.9
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	54.2	15.2	4.3	1.2
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	43.8	12.8	3.7	1.0
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	24.1	5.5	2.8	0.8
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	45.8	11.4	2.9	0.7
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	21.7	3.1	1.0	0.2
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	-	-	-	-
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	-	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-01-08

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 18, Sunday

Baltimore over San Francisco

Before Sunday, there were 10 playoff spots locked up, and everything went mostly as expected. Jacksonville was the one exception, still 67.6% likely to win their division, and instead they are out of the playoffs. It wasn't a huge upset, as the teams that made the playoffs instead were Pittsburgh and Buffalo, who were at 61% and 71%, respectively.

Belichick Watch!
Well, he beat the odds and only tied the record at 165 all-time losses. Back in Week 13 I gave that a 33% chance of happening, and a 43% chance of losing even more. Congrats I guess? Maybe he can get 2 good seasons, or 3 mediocre ones, at a new team and win 27 games to break that record. One thing he likely can't do is reach George Halas' 31 ties.

Math Time!
Also, I found a bug in my software I expect has been there for years, but almost never been a big deal. It was in the 3-way tiebreaker for teams in different divisions, which we actually have this year with San Francisco, Dallas, and Detroit all 12-5. Because it was sort of complicated to calculate the head to head sweep, including the possibility that the teams didn't play each other that year, I calculated 3 winning percentages, 1v2, 1v3, and 2v3. For no particular reason the teams started in the order Dallas-SF-Detroit. By checking if various pairs of them were 1 or 0, I could either declare the winner if one team beat the other two, or the loser if one team lost to the other two, then revert to the 2 team tiebreaker. There was a slight bug in what I wrote. The first five checks were fine, but the last case, where I was checking if Team 1 lost to both teams, I was checking that 1v2 was .000, and that 1v3 was 1.000. Both should have been 0.000 for a valid check. Consequently I incorrectly marked Dallas as #3 and then proceeded to break the SF-Detroit tie. Instead, that tiebreaker should have been skipped since no one swept the other two teams. I spotted this because my original output had Dallas and Detroit's matchups swapped, with Dallas playing LA and Detroit against Green Bay. That probably had a minor effect on my numbers this year, but it was much more pronounced now that every outcome has that 3-way tie.

Traditionally, I now list who I'm rooting for in each game.

Cleveland (52%) at Houston
I don't feel strongly at all about this one. I guess let's root for old man Joe Flacco to get one more run. He's on Cleveland in case you haven't been paying attention. On paper at least, this is a close one with the road team favored.

Miami (50.4%) at Kansas City
...except this one is even closer, also with the road team favored. Here's the game everyone's complaining about being on streaming, including me. The NFL could at least throw St. Louis a bone and air the game OTA like they are in Kansas City. Without our own team, what are we really but an extension of the KC market? Obviously, I'll be rooting for Kansas City. We'll see if I can weasel my way into actually getting to watch this game.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.833	++	++	++	77.8	53.4	31.5
SF	12-5	0.814	++	++	++	78.4	48.7	27.1
DAL	12-5	0.805	++	++	76.0	57.0	31.2	16.9
BUF	11-6	0.750	++	++	78.3	51.2	22.5	10.6
KC	11-6	0.665	++	++	49.6	22.1	7.7	2.9
MIA	11-6	0.669	-	++	50.4	18.1	7.6	2.9
DET	12-5	0.612	++	++	56.3	19.7	6.5	2.1
CLE	11-6	0.566	-	++	51.8	14.8	4.2	1.2
TB	9-8	0.550	++	++	54.2	15.2	4.3	1.2
LAR	10-7	0.551	-	++	43.7	12.7	3.7	1.0
HOU	10-7	0.548	++	++	48.2	13.1	3.5	1.0
GB	9-8	0.566	-	++	24.0	5.5	2.8	0.8
PHI	11-6	0.509	-	++	45.8	11.5	2.9	0.7
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	++	21.7	3.1	1.0	0.2
NO	9-8	0.648	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAX	9-8	0.512	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	8-9	0.502	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	7-10	0.462	-	-	-	-	-	-
SEA	9-8	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-12	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-9	0.394	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-10	0.391	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	6-11	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-10	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-13	0.279	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-11	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-13	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-13	0.207	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-15	0.158	-	-	-	-	-	-

2024-01-07

Super Bowl LVIII Projection, Week 18, Saturday

Baltimore over San Francisco

I was a little unsure the NFL really picked the right games for Saturday, but I think it worked out. Pittsburgh was playing for a chance at the playoffs, and defeated Baltimore, who had the #1 seed locked up and nothing to play for but pride. With the game in Baltimore I thought there might be some chance they'd go all out to win, but without Lamar Jackson, Pittsburgh kept their hopes alive. Consequently, they actually could have clinched their playoff spot on Saturday if the other game had ended in a tie. But, Houston beat Indianapolis, so Houston is in, Indy is out, and Pittsburgh waits for some help tomorrow. They either need Jacksonville to lose or tie to fall behind them (10-7 vs 9-8/9-7-1), or if Jacksonville wins to tie them at 10-7, they need Buffalo to lose and join the tiebreaker. In other words, they'll lose the 2-team tiebreaker to Jacksonville, but win the 3-team tiebreaker against Buffalo and Jacksonville.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
BAL	13-4	0.834	++	++	++	77.4	55.5	34.2
SF	12-4	0.809	++	++	++	78.1	51.4	28.6
DAL	11-5	0.767	92.6	++	74.9	53.0	26.8	13.3
BUF	10-6	0.735	57.1	71.0	49.0	28.8	12.7	6.1
MIA	11-5	0.675	42.9	++	56.3	26.0	10.1	4.1
KC	10-6	0.660	++	++	55.1	27.2	9.3	3.6
DET	11-5	0.596	++	++	55.1	20.9	6.7	2.1
CLE	11-5	0.598	-	++	56.5	19.6	6.1	2.1
PHI	11-5	0.537	7.4	++	50.7	15.2	4.3	1.2
LAR	9-7	0.549	-	++	35.7	9.6	3.5	1.0
HOU	10-7	0.549	32.4	++	37.5	10.0	3.2	0.9
TB	8-8	0.529	83.1	83.1	39.5	11.5	3.2	0.9
GB	8-8	0.549	-	61.3	26.4	7.4	2.5	0.7
JAX	9-7	0.528	67.6	67.6	29.0	8.2	2.1	0.6
NO	8-8	0.591	10.7	18.6	8.5	2.7	1.0	0.3
PIT	10-7	0.453	-	61.4	16.7	2.9	0.9	0.2
SEA	8-8	0.426	-	28.0	6.1	0.9	0.3	0.1
ATL	7-9	0.454	6.2	6.2	2.5	0.6	0.1	0.0
MIN	7-9	0.483	-	2.7	0.7	0.1	0.0	0.0
CHI	7-9	0.479	-	-	-	-	-	-
LV	7-9	0.473	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	9-8	0.465	-	-	-	-	-	-
CIN	8-8	0.431	-	-	-	-	-	-
DEN	8-8	0.419	-	-	-	-	-	-
LAC	5-11	0.402	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	5-11	0.349	-	-	-	-	-	-
ARI	4-12	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-10	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
NE	4-12	0.248	-	-	-	-	-	-
WSH	4-12	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-11	0.201	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	2-14	0.186	-	-	-	-	-	-