Tenets of Wilson: 2015-12

2015-12-31

Zistle Trade #21

This trade was proposed through Zistle, but was with a fellow blogger, Mark Kaz, of This Way to the Clubhouse. Here's his post on my half (or I guess it's now his half) of the trade.

I put a lot of cards on my wantlist. I probably shouldn't do that, because I'll never acquire all of them unless I come into enough money to buy them all, and also enough money to quit my job to focus on tracking them all down full time. But at least it gives traders a wide swath the choose from in order to snag some of my duplicates. This small trade covered some set fillers and some Cardinals-specific wants as well.

1986 Topps Traded #82T Jose Oquendo
1990 K-Mart #12 Joe Magrane
2011 Topps Opening Day - Superstar Celebrations #SC-12 Matt Garza
2012 Topps Update #US185 Donovan Solano
2012 Topps Update #US285 Ian Kinsler
2012 Topps Update #US319 A.J. Pollock RC
2012 Topps Update #US322 Jordan Danks RC
2012 Topps Archives #134 Chris Carpenter
2012 Topps Opening Day - Elite Skills #ES-2 Alex Gordon

The old cards in the trade were a 1986 Topps Traded of Jose Oquendo, the secret weapon, who also played for Mark's New York Mets. The regular 1986 cards seem fairly easy to come by, but the traded sets, as usual, are a bit less common to find. The only other card from that set on my wantlist is Todd Worrell, though a quick look tells me I never went through and exhaustively added all the Cardinals. That would cover the two in uniform, but I collect all Cardinals in any uniform, so I'll be adding Will Clark, Dane Iorg, Joaquin Andujar, and more to my want list. You can see how it balloons so easily.

The full 33-card 1990 K-Mart set is on my want list, and Joe Magrane leaves me with 12 cards to go. I'll bet Nolan Ryan is the last one I'm able to acquire.

Opening Day is a set so cheap that I often decide I'm going to try to acquire every insert among the more common sets, basically everything but autographs/relics/printing plates, and the Alex Gordon and sideways Matt Garza cards are two of those inserts from 2011 and 2012.

I think I completed 2010, 2011, and 2013 Update, but never 2012 for some reason. But, I'm now 4 cards closer on that quest, too.

Finally there's Chris Carpenter from 2012 Archives. I really haven't jumped into Archives with both feet, but I do like getting the Cardinals from the sets. It's a level of restraint rarely seen from me when making my want lists.

Thanks for the trade, Mark! You knocked 9 cards off my want list, but thanks to the attention I paid to 1986 Topps traded, I added 12 more to it.

2015-12-29

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 16, Final

Arizona over New England

Denver beat Cincinnati to clinch a playoff spot, but not the AFC West just yet. They'll need a win, a tie, or a Kansas City loss or tie to finish that off. As I said yesterday, Minnesota and Green Bay will play against each other for the NFC North. The last AFC wildcard spot will go to Pittsburgh or New York, with Pittsburgh holding the tiebreaker if they can win and New York loses. The other division up for grabs is the AFC South, which is almost in Houston's hands. I covered this loosely yesterday, but here are the specifics. Obviously first Indianapolis needs to win and have Houston lose to tie them at 8-8. That'll tie them in Head To Head, Division Record, Common Games Record, and Conference Record. The next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory, which Houston can't lose. Indianapolis can tie it with these results:

Buffalo d. New York
Miami d. New England
Atlanta d. New Orleans
Baltimore d. Cincinnati
Denver d. San Diego

That sends them to the Strength of Schedule tiebreaker. If both of these games go their way, Indianapolis wins it:

Kansas City d. Oakland
Cleveland d. Pittsburgh

If one of these games is reversed (KC and Pittsburgh both win or both lose), Strength of Schedule will also be a tie, and it'll fall to tiebreakers having to do with the teams' rankings among their conference or league peers. That's a tough one to predict at this point, since Houston has only 6 more points scored than Indianapolis, and 3 less than the next team in the AFC. Indianapolis is also only 3 ahead of the next team down. They are further apart in points allowed ranks, but those can all change based on the every AFC game this Sunday.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	13-2	0.820	+	+	+	74.48	45.97	28.86
CAR	14-1	0.770	+	+	+	63.97	31.18	17.32
NE	12-3	0.768	+	+	+	62.44	36.75	18.09
CIN	11-4	0.755	+	+	69.73	43.45	23.08	10.96
KC	10-5	0.724	19.65	+	66.39	33.08	16.83	7.34
SEA	9-6	0.715	-	+	62.75	25.89	11.21	5.43
PIT	9-6	0.669	-	31.83	13.10	5.18	2.51	0.94
NYJ	10-5	0.660	-	68.17	33.60	13.44	6.01	2.20
MIN	10-5	0.622	51.31	+	48.83	14.19	5.01	1.92
DEN	11-4	0.619	80.35	+	86.71	33.78	12.42	4.07
GB	10-5	0.609	48.69	+	51.91	14.20	4.87	1.81
BUF	7-8	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	8-7	0.505	99.98	99.98	30.47	8.63	2.41	0.57
WAS	8-7	0.496	+	+	36.51	7.27	1.76	0.48
ATL	8-7	0.493	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-9	0.470	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-8	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-9	0.411	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.392	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	5-10	0.388	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	7-8	0.387	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-9	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-9	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-11	0.356	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.340	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	5-10	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	4-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-11	0.191	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 16, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Saturday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Thursday]
[Week 16, Saturday]
[Week 16, Sunday]

2015-12-28

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Arizona over New England

Things didn't quite get buttoned up completely, but a lot of the playoff spots are now accounted for. Atlanta beat undefeated Carolina to stay alive, but then Minnesota won to eliminate them and clinch a playoff spot. They'll play Green Bay for the NFC North next week, and if they lose, there's a good chance they'll head right back to Green Bay to start the playoffs. Kansas City clinched their spot, and New York stayed alive, keeping Pittsburgh from clinching a spot. Arizona destroyed Green Bay, and clinched a first round bye. They could actually take the #1 seed from Carolina next week, if both teams end up 14-2. We won't get a 7-9 playoff team, as Jacksonville was eliminated by their loss and Houston's win.

Houston still isn't quite the AFC South champion, though. However, it will take 8 games going the wrong way for them not to win tiebreaker #5, Strength of Victory. If two other games go the wrong way, they'll lose on tiebreaker #6, Strength of Schedule. If exactly one of those two games goes wrong, their tie with Indianapolis will fall to the 7th, 8th, or 9th tiebreaker. 7 and 8 are combined ranking in points scored and allowed in the the conference and full league, respectively. It's possible they will tie in those as well, and the tie will be broken by net points in their 12 common games, which Indianapolis currently leads by about 30. I'd like to see happen because I enjoy chaos, and I doubt we've ever actually gotten that far into the tiebreakers. To start the chaos in motion, we'll need Denver to beat Cincinnati tonight.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	13-2	0.820	+	+	+	74.48	45.97	28.59
CAR	14-1	0.770	+	+	+	63.97	31.18	17.12
NE	12-3	0.768	+	+	+	64.48	36.50	17.96
CIN	11-3	0.754	+	+	89.76	54.79	29.04	13.75
KC	10-5	0.724	61.83	+	62.59	29.60	14.94	6.52
SEA	9-6	0.715	-	+	62.75	25.89	11.21	5.35
PIT	9-6	0.669	-	41.22	19.41	7.49	3.39	1.27
NYJ	10-5	0.660	-	73.64	42.81	16.42	6.97	2.55
MIN	10-5	0.622	51.30	+	48.83	14.19	5.01	1.89
DEN	10-4	0.611	38.17	85.14	51.94	18.66	6.83	2.19
GB	10-5	0.609	48.70	+	51.91	14.20	4.87	1.78
BUF	7-8	0.530	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	8-7	0.505	99.97	99.97	33.48	8.55	2.34	0.55
WAS	8-7	0.496	+	+	36.50	7.26	1.76	0.47
ATL	8-7	0.493	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-9	0.470	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	7-8	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-10	0.415	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	6-9	0.410	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-9	0.408	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.392	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	5-10	0.388	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	7-8	0.387	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-9	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	6-9	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-11	0.356	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	7-8	0.340	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
MIA	5-10	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	4-11	0.303	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-12	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-12	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-11	0.191	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

2015-12-27

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

Another week has passed, and this time there have only been FBS games. 13 bowls took place since last Sunday. The top 7 stayed the same, as none of them have played their bowl yet. Western Kentucky, who I already had ranked very highly compared to the real rankings, moved from #12 up to #8 with their win. The playoff committee didn't rank them - not that any of that really matters after spot #4 - and the AP had them at #25 to end the year. They were unranked in the Coaches poll, but were the top unranked team, so we'll call it #26.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game against McNeese State?
LSU rises to #23, Bowling Green falls behind Ole Miss, and Louisiana Tech and Texas A&M swap places, but nothing all that interesting.

1	Clemson	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Michigan State	12-1
4	Iowa	12-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Oklahoma	11-1
7	Houston	12-1
8	Western Kentucky	12-2
9	Ohio State	11-1
10	North Carolina	11-2
11	Northwestern	10-2
12	Utah	10-3
13	Notre Dame	10-2
14	San Diego State	11-3
15	Florida State	10-2
16	Oklahoma State	10-2
17	Navy	10-2
18	Florida	10-3
19	Appalachian State	11-2
20	TCU	10-2
21	Toledo	10-2
22	Oregon	9-3
23	Bowling Green	10-4
24	Ole Miss	9-3
25	Michigan	9-3
26	Temple	10-4
27	Washington State	9-4
28	Memphis	9-3
29	Georgia	9-3
30	USC	8-5
31	BYU	9-4
32	Marshall	10-3
33	Baylor	9-3
34	LSU	8-3
35	Wisconsin	9-3
36	Mississippi State	8-4
37	Georgia Southern	9-4
38	Pittsburgh	8-4
39	Miami (FL)	8-5
40	Louisiana Tech	9-4
41	Texas A&M	8-4
42	Tennessee	8-4
43	UCLA	8-5
44	Boise State	9-4
45	Arkansas State	9-4
46	California	7-5
47	Arkansas	7-5
48	Western Michigan	8-5
49	Southern Mississippi	9-5
50	South Florida	8-5
51	Ohio	8-5
52	Washington	7-6
53	Duke	8-5
54	Air Force	8-5
55	Texas Tech	7-5
56	Penn State	7-5
57	West Virginia	7-5
58	Arizona	7-6
59	Northern Illinois	8-6
60	Louisville	7-5
61	Cincinnati	7-6
62	Akron	8-5
63	Auburn	6-6
64	NC State	7-5
65	Arizona State	6-6
66	Virginia Tech	7-6
67	Central Michigan	7-5
68	Nebraska	6-7
69	Utah State	6-7
70	Middle Tennessee	7-6
71	Colorado State	7-5
72	Kansas State	6-6
73	New Mexico	7-6
74	Indiana	6-7
75	Connecticut	6-7
76	Minnesota	5-7
77	Illinois	5-7
78	San Jose State	6-7
79	Texas	5-7
80	Missouri	5-7
81	Tulsa	6-7
82	Nevada	6-6
83	East Carolina	5-7
84	Georgia State	6-7
85	Kentucky	5-7
86	South Alabama	5-7
87	Virginia	4-8
88	Buffalo	5-7
89	Vanderbilt	4-8
90	Old Dominion	5-7
91	Florida Intl	5-7
92	UTEP	5-7
93	Maryland	3-9
94	Syracuse	4-8
95	Rutgers	4-8
96	Colorado	4-9
97	Georgia Tech	3-9
98	Rice	5-7
99	Iowa State	3-9
100	Troy	4-8
101	Idaho	4-8
102	South Carolina	3-9
103	Louisiana Lafayette	4-8
104	Wake Forest	3-9
105	Ball State	3-9
106	Fresno State	3-9
107	Boston College	3-9
108	Oregon State	2-10
109	Purdue	2-10
110	Texas State	3-9
111	Florida Atlantic	3-9
112	Kent State	3-9
113	UNLV	3-9
114	Miami (OH)	3-9
115	Texas San Antonio	3-9
116	Tulane	3-9
117	New Mexico State	3-9
118	Massachusetts	3-9
119	SMU	2-10
120	Hawaii	3-10
121	Wyoming	2-10
122	Army	2-10
123	Charlotte	2-10
124	North Texas	1-11
125	Louisiana Monroe	2-11
126	Kansas	0-12
127	Eastern Michigan	1-11
128	UCF	0-12

2015 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 Texas A&M
Week 3 Ohio State
Week 4 Northwestern
Week 5 Northwestern
Week 6 Florida
Week 7 Iowa
Week 8 Michigan State
Week 9 Clemson
Week 10 Clemson
Week 11 Clemson
Week 12 Clemson
Week 13 Clemson
Week 14 Clemson
Week 15 Clemson
Week 16 Clemson

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 16, Saturday

Arizona over New England

Washington beat Philadelphia to win the NFC East. New York can still tie them at 8-8, but Washington also clinched the Conference Record tiebreaker against New York last night.

The entire playoff field can be set after this week. In the NFC, it'll only take an Atlanta loss to put in Minnesota as the 6th team. If the New York Jets lose, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and Denver can all put themselves into the playoffs with a win. Houston can do it with a win and some help from other teams to clinch strength of victory, or simply an Indianapolis loss.

I tried to construct a scenario that sets all the seeding in place, but even with ties the best I could get was 9 or 10 teams frozen in place. Part of the reason for that is that Denver and Cincinnati play each other Monday night, and they cannot both clinch their divisions, unless Kansas City and/or Pittsburgh also lose, which leaves the wildcard spots unclinched. So at the very least teams will be playing for position next week, which could be the difference between a home or road game in the first round, or facing the best teams in the conference or the second best in the second round.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	12-2	0.779	+	+	97.52	64.16	35.65	20.00
NE	12-2	0.770	+	+	+	65.02	37.18	19.68
CAR	14-0	0.770	+	+	+	64.18	34.54	18.91
CIN	11-3	0.754	96.24	+	89.97	55.68	29.38	14.90
SEA	9-5	0.722	-	+	70.60	30.84	14.92	7.25
KC	9-5	0.711	55.36	94.16	58.96	26.86	13.03	5.92
PIT	9-5	0.671	3.76	91.79	57.26	22.65	9.98	4.08
GB	10-4	0.668	68.26	+	65.77	24.35	10.09	4.27
NYJ	9-5	0.648	-	32.18	16.02	5.80	2.45	0.94
DEN	10-4	0.611	44.64	81.88	50.95	18.49	6.74	2.35
MIN	9-5	0.555	31.74	99.64	36.40	9.77	3.02	0.95
NYG	6-8	0.527	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-8	0.510	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	8-7	0.496	+	+	29.54	6.67	1.76	0.47
ATL	7-7	0.479	-	0.36	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00
HOU	7-7	0.441	85.29	85.29	23.58	4.95	1.13	0.24
OAK	7-8	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-9	0.433	5.11	5.11	1.38	0.28	0.06	0.01
TB	6-8	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-9	0.392	-	-	-	-	-	-
BAL	4-10	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-9	0.374	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-8	0.373	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-9	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-11	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	5-9	0.337	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-8	0.334	9.60	9.60	1.87	0.27	0.04	0.01
DAL	4-10	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

2015-12-25

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 16, Thursday

Arizona over New England

Like I said before, and like Monday, a game between two eliminated teams did not change anything of note. It didn't even affect the strength of victory for Houston or Indianapolis, a tiebreaker that may have to come into play. On Saturday, Washington can make things much less interesting by winning and clinching the NFC East, or they can leave it wide open by losing and allowing Philadelphia to tie them at 7-8, and leaving the door open for New York to make it a 3-way tie.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	12-2	0.779	+	+	97.52	64.20	35.63	19.99
NE	12-2	0.770	+	+	+	65.02	37.17	19.66
CAR	14-0	0.770	+	+	+	64.21	34.51	18.90
CIN	11-3	0.754	96.24	+	89.97	55.67	29.38	14.89
SEA	9-5	0.722	-	+	72.60	31.71	15.34	7.45
KC	9-5	0.711	55.34	94.15	58.95	26.85	13.03	5.90
PIT	9-5	0.671	3.76	91.79	57.26	22.66	9.98	4.08
GB	10-4	0.668	68.25	+	66.54	24.64	10.19	4.32
NYJ	9-5	0.648	-	32.18	16.03	5.81	2.45	0.94
DEN	10-4	0.611	44.66	81.88	50.96	18.50	6.75	2.35
MIN	9-5	0.555	31.75	99.64	36.57	9.82	3.03	0.95
NYG	6-8	0.527	4.61	4.61	1.45	0.36	0.10	0.03
BUF	6-8	0.510	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-7	0.479	-	0.36	0.19	0.04	0.01	0.00
WAS	7-7	0.468	72.75	72.75	19.82	4.09	1.00	0.25
HOU	7-7	0.441	85.29	85.29	23.58	4.95	1.13	0.24
OAK	7-8	0.434	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	5-9	0.433	5.11	5.11	1.38	0.28	0.06	0.01
TB	6-8	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-8	0.416	22.64	22.64	5.31	0.93	0.19	0.04
BAL	4-10	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-9	0.374	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-8	0.373	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-9	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-11	0.356	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	5-9	0.337	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-8	0.334	9.60	9.60	1.87	0.27	0.04	0.01
DAL	4-10	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

2015-12-24

eBay Wins #200

I'm not usually big on celebrating numbers just because they're round, so #200 will just be the next group of cards in my queue. In this case, it's a single 1982 Fleer.

1982 Fleer #266 Al Cowens

So maybe there's something a little special about this card. It's autographed. Is that Al Cowens' autograph? Could be, I guess, though I have no real evidence of that. I'm not sure if I ordered this as a random card, or the card was specifically listed. Thus, if it was singly listed, I don't know if it specified whether it was autographed. I really need to catch up on my eBay posts so I can remember stuff like that

I didn't notice the autograph until I went to scan, because it's even more faint on the card than it looks here. Real or not, I can't really feel bad about a penny card.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3390
Total Spent	$52.37
Per Card	1.545 cents
Change	0 cents

2015-12-22

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 15, Final

Arizona over New England

With a Monday night game between two eliminated teams, Detroit and New Orleans, no one moved very much. I think the biggest odds shift was for Houston, up by 0.13%, which is because the strengths all exaggerated just slightly due to the amount of scoring in the Monday night game, bringing up the average points per game for the whole league. Thus, Indianapolis and Jacksonville were pushed down a little more than Houston was, and they benefited.

As for me personally, I've made it to the championship in one of my fantasy football leagues, and I exited in the first playoff round in the other. Going into last night's game, I actually needed Tim Hightower to outperform Theo Riddick by a few points, which he just barely did until the last series when he caught an 18-yard pass for a few points of cushion for me. Those are always nice to have in case there are stat corrections later.

Looking ahead to Thursday, we'll have two more eliminated teams playing, San Diego at Oakland, a game I am selfishly hoping features the franchises that will be in Los Angeles in 2016, to keep the Rams here. As a result, the numbers shouldn't change much yet again next time.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	12-2	0.779	+	+	97.52	64.20	35.63	19.99
NE	12-2	0.770	+	+	+	65.03	37.18	19.66
CAR	14-0	0.770	+	+	+	64.22	34.51	18.90
CIN	11-3	0.754	96.24	+	90.03	55.69	29.39	14.89
SEA	9-5	0.722	-	+	72.60	31.71	15.34	7.45
KC	9-5	0.711	55.78	94.24	59.00	26.87	13.04	5.91
PIT	9-5	0.671	3.76	91.81	57.30	22.67	9.99	4.08
GB	10-4	0.668	68.25	+	66.54	24.64	10.19	4.31
NYJ	9-5	0.648	-	32.36	16.10	5.83	2.46	0.94
DEN	10-4	0.611	44.22	81.60	50.74	18.41	6.71	2.34
MIN	9-5	0.555	31.75	99.64	36.57	9.81	3.03	0.95
NYG	6-8	0.527	4.61	4.61	1.45	0.36	0.10	0.03
BUF	6-8	0.510	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-7	0.479	-	0.36	0.19	0.04	0.01	0.00
WAS	7-7	0.468	72.75	72.75	19.82	4.09	1.00	0.24
HOU	7-7	0.441	85.29	85.29	23.58	4.95	1.13	0.24
JAC	5-9	0.433	5.11	5.11	1.38	0.28	0.06	0.01
OAK	6-8	0.429	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-8	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-8	0.416	22.64	22.64	5.31	0.92	0.19	0.04
BAL	4-10	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	5-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-9	0.374	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-8	0.373	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-9	0.366	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-10	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	5-9	0.337	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-8	0.334	9.60	9.60	1.87	0.27	0.04	0.01
DAL	4-10	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

2015-12-21

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Arizona over New England

I'm a bit shocked, but the numbers don't lie. I now have Arizona favored to win the NFC. They had a decent margin of victory, and Carolina didn't, bringing their strength high enough to overcome the clinched bye week advantage Carolina has. Of course, Arizona is currently in line for the other NFC bye.

As for the ins and outs this week, Arizona clinched the NFC West, New England clinched a first round bye, and Green Bay, Seattle, and Cincinnati locked up playoff spots. Eliminated from the playoffs were St. Louis, New Orleans, Chicago, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo. The AFC South and NFC East each have 3 teams still vying for the division championship, but none of them can win a wildcard spot. Other than the NFC East title, the last unclaimed NFC spot will go to Atlanta or Minnesota. In the AFC there is also only one more team than unclaimed playoff spots, with Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Denver, and New York in contention for 3 spots. Either Denver or KC will win the AFC West, so one of them is in, but they both could be too. In the AFC South, Jacksonville is still alive at 5-9! They'll have to go 7-9 to win the division though, with Houston already 7-7.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	12-2	0.779	+	+	97.52	64.20	35.63	19.99
NE	12-2	0.770	+	+	+	65.02	37.18	19.66
CAR	14-0	0.770	+	+	+	64.20	34.51	18.90
CIN	11-3	0.754	96.24	+	90.03	55.69	29.38	14.89
SEA	9-5	0.722	-	+	72.60	31.72	15.34	7.45
KC	9-5	0.711	55.78	94.24	58.99	26.87	13.04	5.91
PIT	9-5	0.671	3.76	91.80	57.29	22.66	9.98	4.07
GB	10-4	0.668	68.25	+	66.53	24.64	10.19	4.32
NYJ	9-5	0.648	-	32.36	16.09	5.83	2.46	0.95
DEN	10-4	0.611	44.22	81.60	50.75	18.42	6.72	2.34
MIN	9-5	0.555	31.75	99.62	36.56	9.82	3.03	0.95
NYG	6-8	0.527	4.61	4.61	1.45	0.36	0.10	0.03
BUF	6-8	0.510	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	7-7	0.479	-	0.38	0.20	0.04	0.01	0.00
WAS	7-7	0.468	72.74	72.74	19.83	4.09	1.00	0.24
HOU	7-7	0.441	85.45	85.45	23.62	4.96	1.14	0.24
JAC	5-9	0.433	5.00	5.00	1.35	0.28	0.06	0.01
OAK	6-8	0.429	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-8	0.418	-	-	-	-	-	-
PHI	6-8	0.416	22.64	22.64	5.32	0.92	0.19	0.04
BAL	4-10	0.384	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-8	0.378	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-9	0.374	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	6-8	0.373	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	4-9	0.365	-	-	-	-	-	-
SD	4-10	0.362	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIA	5-9	0.337	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-8	0.334	9.55	9.55	1.87	0.27	0.04	0.01
DAL	4-10	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-11	0.322	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-11	0.254	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-10	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

2015-12-20

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 15, Saturday

Carolina over New England

The NFL added a bonus Saturday game this week. As with many one-game days, not much changed. Dallas eliminated themselves by losing to the Jets. I guess I should have posted this one earlier, so, just to be clear, this is the projection before all of Sunday's games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CAR	13-0	0.767	+	+	+	67.54	38.64	22.24
ARI	11-2	0.748	99.97	+	97.20	62.14	32.61	17.97
NE	11-2	0.744	+	+	98.79	61.28	34.82	18.03
CIN	10-3	0.733	97.41	99.87	85.98	52.21	27.94	14.08
SEA	8-5	0.690	0.03	98.15	68.79	28.57	13.55	6.51
KC	8-5	0.676	22.83	88.36	57.13	25.48	12.00	5.24
PIT	8-5	0.661	2.59	71.14	42.73	17.92	8.22	3.46
GB	9-4	0.649	75.32	99.95	68.25	26.34	10.84	4.71
NYJ	9-5	0.648	-	44.99	24.55	10.07	4.48	1.82
DEN	10-3	0.630	77.17	93.34	65.04	27.61	11.29	4.40
NYG	6-7	0.533	22.87	26.84	9.59	2.56	0.81	0.26
BUF	6-7	0.530	-	1.96	0.69	0.20	0.07	0.02
MIN	8-5	0.507	24.68	89.20	31.49	7.71	2.27	0.68
ATL	6-7	0.466	-	1.97	0.69	0.15	0.04	0.01
PHI	6-7	0.459	33.69	34.13	10.01	2.16	0.55	0.15
OAK	6-7	0.448	-	0.34	0.10	0.02	0.01	0.00
WAS	6-7	0.446	43.44	45.14	12.79	2.64	0.65	0.17
JAC	5-8	0.445	7.32	7.32	2.11	0.50	0.13	0.03
HOU	6-7	0.430	49.97	49.97	13.75	3.11	0.75	0.17
BAL	4-9	0.423	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	6-8	0.418	-	0.60	0.16	0.03	0.01	0.00
CHI	5-8	0.414	-	1.38	0.37	0.07	0.01	0.00
NO	5-8	0.378	-	0.86	0.20	0.03	0.01	0.00
STL	6-8	0.374	-	1.78	0.46	0.07	0.01	0.00
MIA	5-8	0.367	-	-	-	-	-	-
DET	4-9	0.365	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	3-10	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
IND	6-7	0.350	42.70	42.70	9.13	1.59	0.29	0.05
SD	3-10	0.334	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	4-10	0.329	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	3-10	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-9	0.237	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Carolina (Week 14, Sunday)

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

You get the power rankings a bit early this week, because the NFL added an extra day, so I'll update those projections tonight. As this isn't really a proper "week" of the college football season, but just a portion of the bowl season thus far, this is the one that got bumped.

Unsurprisingly, the top 10 stayed intact. Utah was the highest mover, from #23 to #11 with their win over BYU in the Las Vegas bowl. All the way near the bottom of the pack, Texas-San Antonio gained 4 places, moving from #117 to #113, due in part to their week 1 opponent, Arizona, winning their bowl and moving up to #57 from #66.

What if LSU had won their canceled week 1 game against McNeese State?
LSU would be #20, and Florida State would be tied at #14 instead of alone at #15. Texas A&M would jump 2 spots over Pittsburgh and Louisiana Tech to #36, and Marshall would be ahead of Arkansas at #43, but nothing of consequence would change.

1	Clemson	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Michigan State	12-1
4	Iowa	12-1
5	Stanford	11-2
6	Oklahoma	11-1
7	Houston	12-1
8	Ohio State	11-1
9	North Carolina	11-2
10	Northwestern	10-2
11	Utah	10-3
12	Western Kentucky	11-2
13	Notre Dame	10-2
14	Oklahoma State	10-2
15	Florida State	10-2
16	Navy	10-2
17	Florida	10-3
18	Appalachian State	11-2
19	TCU	10-2
20	Oregon	9-3
21	Ole Miss	9-3
22	Bowling Green	10-3
23	Michigan	9-3
24	Temple	10-3
25	San Diego State	10-3
26	Memphis	9-3
27	Georgia	9-3
28	USC	8-5
29	Baylor	9-3
30	BYU	9-4
31	Toledo	9-2
32	LSU	8-3
33	Mississippi State	8-4
34	Wisconsin	9-3
35	Miami (FL)	8-4
36	Pittsburgh	8-4
37	Louisiana Tech	9-4
38	Texas A&M	8-4
39	UCLA	8-4
40	Tennessee	8-4
41	Washington State	8-4
42	Arkansas State	9-4
43	Marshall	9-3
44	Arkansas	7-5
45	California	7-5
46	Southern Mississippi	9-4
47	South Florida	8-4
48	Georgia Southern	8-4
49	Texas Tech	7-5
50	Ohio	8-5
51	Penn State	7-5
52	Air Force	8-5
53	Boise State	8-4
54	West Virginia	7-5
55	Northern Illinois	8-5
56	Louisville	7-5
57	Arizona	7-6
58	Cincinnati	7-5
59	Western Michigan	7-5
60	Auburn	6-6
61	NC State	7-5
62	Arizona State	6-6
63	Central Michigan	7-5
64	Duke	7-5
65	Washington	6-6
66	Utah State	6-6
67	Middle Tennessee	7-5
68	Kansas State	6-6
69	Akron	7-5
70	Colorado State	7-5
71	Indiana	6-6
72	New Mexico	7-6
73	Virginia Tech	6-6
74	Connecticut	6-6
75	Minnesota	5-7
76	Nebraska	5-7
77	Illinois	5-7
78	Texas	5-7
79	Tulsa	6-6
80	San Jose State	6-7
81	Missouri	5-7
82	East Carolina	5-7
83	Nevada	6-6
84	Georgia State	6-7
85	Kentucky	5-7
86	South Alabama	5-7
87	Virginia	4-8
88	Vanderbilt	4-8
89	Buffalo	5-7
90	Old Dominion	5-7
91	Florida Intl	5-7
92	UTEP	5-7
93	Maryland	3-9
94	Syracuse	4-8
95	Rutgers	4-8
96	Colorado	4-9
97	Rice	5-7
98	Iowa State	3-9
99	Georgia Tech	3-9
100	Troy	4-8
101	Idaho	4-8
102	South Carolina	3-9
103	Louisiana Lafayette	4-8
104	Wake Forest	3-9
105	Ball State	3-9
106	Fresno State	3-9
107	Boston College	3-9
108	Oregon State	2-10
109	Texas State	3-9
110	Florida Atlantic	3-9
111	Purdue	2-10
112	Kent State	3-9
113	Texas San Antonio	3-9
114	UNLV	3-9
115	SMU	2-10
116	Miami (OH)	3-9
117	Tulane	3-9
118	New Mexico State	3-9
119	Massachusetts	3-9
120	Hawaii	3-10
121	Wyoming	2-10
122	Army	2-10
123	Charlotte	2-10
124	North Texas	1-11
125	Louisiana Monroe	2-11
126	Kansas	0-12
127	Eastern Michigan	1-11
128	UCF	0-12

2015 History and #1s