Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 6, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

I was too busy to watch the game last night, so I have no particular insights about it, except that nothing happened that was crazy enough to destroy the huge leads I had in both of my fantasy leagues. I'm now 4-2 and 5-1. Good for me.

The NFC East looks like a tossup if you only look at the standings, with 2 teams at 3-3, then one each at 2-3 and 2-4. But, considering team strengths and simulating the schedule, I give Philadelphia almost a 50% chance of winning it, and New York, even though they are tied with Philadelphia at 3-3, wins in just over 25% of the simulations. Before tonight's game, in which New York was favored, they had a 53% chance at the division. Upsets always tip the odds by a greater magnitude than favorites winning.

I completely forgot to track the milestones like I have in the past, so those have now been added to this post and will be going forward.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	4-2	0.630	77.40	84.89	62.63	35.05	19.58	10.71
GB	6-0	0.617	88.84	97.81	88.14	49.47	26.97	14.37
NE	5-0	0.609	58.34	92.59	73.87	40.07	21.37	11.18
NYJ	4-1	0.605	36.87	84.23	61.57	32.49	17.13	8.90
CIN	6-0	0.601	79.01	96.79	80.62	43.47	22.68	11.68
DEN	6-0	0.582	94.51	96.48	76.54	39.23	19.50	9.65
PIT	4-2	0.578	19.86	61.74	37.90	18.60	9.19	4.52
CAR	5-0	0.578	57.76	92.16	71.40	36.30	17.73	8.73
PHI	3-3	0.572	49.18	56.34	32.23	15.47	7.49	3.65
ATL	5-1	0.567	40.45	89.82	63.37	30.97	14.78	7.11
MIN	3-2	0.534	10.72	46.97	25.59	11.31	5.08	2.28
SEA	2-4	0.520	10.48	18.10	8.52	3.66	1.61	0.70
BUF	3-3	0.512	3.65	27.11	13.62	5.72	2.45	1.04
NYG	3-3	0.506	26.33	34.17	16.44	6.77	2.83	1.19
MIA	2-3	0.482	1.13	10.07	4.63	1.81	0.73	0.29
CLE	2-4	0.468	0.98	4.56	1.91	0.72	0.28	0.11
TEN	1-4	0.467	17.58	18.14	7.12	2.66	1.02	0.39
OAK	2-3	0.466	2.36	12.10	5.27	1.97	0.76	0.29
BAL	1-5	0.465	0.15	1.69	0.69	0.26	0.10	0.04
IND	3-3	0.457	56.97	57.55	22.29	8.12	3.02	1.13
WAS	2-4	0.454	10.70	14.77	6.13	2.22	0.82	0.31
SD	2-4	0.453	2.75	7.65	3.15	1.14	0.43	0.16
HOU	2-4	0.447	21.07	22.18	8.39	2.98	1.08	0.40
NO	2-4	0.445	0.66	7.90	3.13	1.10	0.40	0.15
DAL	2-3	0.442	13.80	17.19	7.04	2.47	0.88	0.32
KC	1-5	0.439	0.38	2.44	0.94	0.33	0.12	0.04
STL	2-3	0.435	10.02	18.20	7.21	2.51	0.90	0.32
TB	2-3	0.434	1.13	12.63	5.09	1.75	0.62	0.22
DET	1-5	0.407	0.14	1.30	0.46	0.15	0.05	0.02
CHI	2-4	0.399	0.29	3.51	1.19	0.37	0.12	0.04
JAC	1-5	0.391	4.38	4.67	1.49	0.45	0.14	0.04
SF	2-4	0.386	2.09	4.24	1.43	0.44	0.14	0.04

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]