2015-10-20

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 6, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

I was too busy to watch the game last night, so I have no particular insights about it, except that nothing happened that was crazy enough to destroy the huge leads I had in both of my fantasy leagues. I'm now 4-2 and 5-1. Good for me.

The NFC East looks like a tossup if you only look at the standings, with 2 teams at 3-3, then one each at 2-3 and 2-4. But, considering team strengths and simulating the schedule, I give Philadelphia almost a 50% chance of winning it, and New York, even though they are tied with Philadelphia at 3-3, wins in just over 25% of the simulations. Before tonight's game, in which New York was favored, they had a 53% chance at the division. Upsets always tip the odds by a greater magnitude than favorites winning.

I completely forgot to track the milestones like I have in the past, so those have now been added to this post and will be going forward.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-20.63077.4084.8962.6335.0519.5810.71
GB6-00.61788.8497.8188.1449.4726.9714.37
NE5-00.60958.3492.5973.8740.0721.3711.18
NYJ4-10.60536.8784.2361.5732.4917.138.90
CIN6-00.60179.0196.7980.6243.4722.6811.68
DEN6-00.58294.5196.4876.5439.2319.509.65
PIT4-20.57819.8661.7437.9018.609.194.52
CAR5-00.57857.7692.1671.4036.3017.738.73
PHI3-30.57249.1856.3432.2315.477.493.65
ATL5-10.56740.4589.8263.3730.9714.787.11
MIN3-20.53410.7246.9725.5911.315.082.28
SEA2-40.52010.4818.108.523.661.610.70
BUF3-30.5123.6527.1113.625.722.451.04
NYG3-30.50626.3334.1716.446.772.831.19
MIA2-30.4821.1310.074.631.810.730.29
CLE2-40.4680.984.561.910.720.280.11
TEN1-40.46717.5818.147.122.661.020.39
OAK2-30.4662.3612.105.271.970.760.29
BAL1-50.4650.151.690.690.260.100.04
IND3-30.45756.9757.5522.298.123.021.13
WAS2-40.45410.7014.776.132.220.820.31
SD2-40.4532.757.653.151.140.430.16
HOU2-40.44721.0722.188.392.981.080.40
NO2-40.4450.667.903.131.100.400.15
DAL2-30.44213.8017.197.042.470.880.32
KC1-50.4390.382.440.940.330.120.04
STL2-30.43510.0218.207.212.510.900.32
TB2-30.4341.1312.635.091.750.620.22
DET1-50.4070.141.300.460.150.050.02
CHI2-40.3990.293.511.190.370.120.04
JAC1-50.3914.384.671.490.450.140.04
SF2-40.3862.094.241.430.440.140.04

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]

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