Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 12, Final

New England over Carolina

Baltimore and Cleveland managed to take a bad game on paper and give it an exciting end, when Cleveland set up for the game winning field goal with seconds to go in a tie game, but Baltimore blocked it and returned it for a touchdown.

Apparently, Cleveland is still not eliminated from the playoffs, even with 9 losses. Usually there's enough games left between the top teams that even if a 7-9 team could catch one, they can't catch enough of them to make the playoffs. Right now the two AFC Wildcards, Kansas City and Houston, are 6-5, so Cleveland can catch at least one.

However, they made the playoffs in somewhere between 10 and 29 of my 2 billion simulations (I showed 0.000001% after rounding), and in none of those did they advance past the next round. Obviously they don't have zero chance of winning the Superbowl if in fact they make the playoffs, but they didn't make it there in the 2 billion chances I gave them.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.716	99.92	100.00	97.05	62.36	36.26	20.12
CAR	11-0	0.713	99.96	100.00	99.84	66.43	38.02	20.94
ARI	9-2	0.698	97.15	99.67	91.33	57.81	31.08	16.59
CIN	9-2	0.696	98.77	99.95	88.53	53.93	28.92	15.35
KC	6-5	0.630	8.70	81.97	49.26	21.34	10.00	4.59
GB	7-4	0.599	39.76	87.65	53.72	21.60	9.42	4.02
DEN	9-2	0.599	91.03	98.75	71.26	30.96	13.06	5.57
SEA	6-5	0.593	2.84	53.11	28.90	11.14	4.87	2.05
NYJ	6-5	0.589	0.08	44.09	22.20	8.65	3.71	1.55
MIN	8-3	0.588	59.88	92.94	58.30	23.18	9.79	4.07
PIT	6-5	0.574	1.23	36.47	18.17	6.74	2.79	1.12
ATL	6-5	0.554	0.04	36.25	17.66	6.05	2.43	0.93
NYG	5-6	0.526	31.53	33.46	15.00	4.87	1.77	0.63
BUF	5-6	0.518	-	16.01	6.54	2.09	0.76	0.27
HOU	6-5	0.496	40.58	49.72	19.53	6.01	2.01	0.66
IND	6-5	0.478	56.95	60.32	22.82	6.68	2.12	0.67
OAK	5-6	0.470	0.27	8.69	3.43	0.95	0.31	0.09
BAL	4-7	0.467	0.00	0.92	0.33	0.09	0.03	0.01
WAS	5-6	0.448	55.68	56.83	21.10	5.51	1.63	0.47
TB	5-6	0.440	-	12.75	4.77	1.18	0.35	0.10
PHI	4-7	0.439	10.52	10.54	3.82	0.98	0.28	0.08
CHI	5-6	0.432	0.28	8.58	3.03	0.72	0.21	0.06
STL	4-7	0.394	0.01	1.92	0.58	0.12	0.03	0.01
DET	4-7	0.388	0.08	2.84	0.90	0.19	0.05	0.01
SD	3-8	0.386	-	0.07	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	2-9	0.383	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	4-7	0.383	2.47	2.90	0.83	0.18	0.04	0.01
MIA	4-7	0.380	-	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DAL	3-8	0.378	2.27	2.27	0.71	0.15	0.04	0.01
NO	4-7	0.372	-	1.17	0.34	0.07	0.02	0.00
CLE	2-9	0.325	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
SF	3-8	0.259	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]