Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 13, Sunday

Cincinnati over Arizona

The Rams scored just 3 points, which helped boost Arizona's strength. Cincinnati similarly beat up on Cleveland, and we have two new projected Superbowl participants. New England and Carolina didn't perform well either, with New England losing by 7, and Carolina only winning by 3, giving up 38 points.

I'm showing 2 playoff eliminations this week, Cleveland at 2-10, and San Diego at 3-9. But, the official NFL playoff picture site shows that San Diego is still "In the Hunt". I suspect that means that a tie somewhere would be necessary for them to make the playoffs,  but I haven't been able to figure out where, exactly. My usual tactic in this case is to make a dummy version of the season, and force certain future games San Diego's way, by having them win all their games, wins by the NFC every time there's an NFC-AFC game to weaken the wildcard field, and then wins by every team that can't catch them or they can't catch, that is, teams with 10 losses or 8 wins already. That only leaves a few games to try to figure out the magic formula. If they are indeed still in the hunt, it could be that one of those assumptions that weakens the field takes a team out of the tiebreaker that San Diego needs, such as a case where team A beats team B in a 2-team tiebreaker, but team B would have beaten team A and C in a 3 team tiebreaker. The other possibility is that the scenario involves teams being so tied that points and touchdowns scored come into play. Right now my simulations just use the current point totals, and don't have any knowledge at all about touchdowns. I do see those point tiebreakers being used for a few cases, but none involving San Diego.

Long story short, for now I'll just say Cleveland wins the elimination sweepstakes. Not surprisingly, at 12-0, Carolina have finally clinched a playoff spot, and their division.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	10-2	0.749	99.15	99.98	90.18	57.64	34.72	19.74
ARI	10-2	0.738	97.91	99.95	95.95	64.87	37.50	20.71
CAR	12-0	0.713	+	+	99.99	64.94	34.32	17.89
NE	10-2	0.709	99.83	99.99	91.37	53.21	27.87	14.45
KC	7-5	0.654	7.07	89.91	58.07	25.65	11.77	5.38
SEA	7-5	0.652	2.09	85.70	55.45	23.69	11.15	5.05
PIT	7-5	0.639	0.85	45.40	24.26	10.25	4.57	2.02
DEN	10-2	0.633	92.93	99.23	76.80	35.14	14.97	6.52
GB	8-4	0.606	62.84	93.75	59.06	22.10	9.37	3.80
NYJ	7-5	0.596	0.17	43.83	20.78	7.92	3.20	1.27
ATL	6-6	0.546	-	9.60	4.77	1.52	0.55	0.19
BUF	6-6	0.535	-	19.85	7.48	2.42	0.85	0.29
NYG	5-7	0.521	18.75	20.53	8.53	2.54	0.86	0.28
MIN	8-4	0.514	37.16	80.95	36.86	10.85	3.62	1.16
HOU	6-6	0.476	43.90	44.69	15.06	4.16	1.19	0.35
BAL	4-8	0.462	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PHI	5-7	0.454	23.18	23.23	8.20	2.03	0.57	0.16
WAS	5-6	0.448	55.92	56.56	19.75	4.77	1.33	0.35
TB	6-6	0.447	-	24.16	9.75	2.35	0.65	0.17
OAK	5-7	0.444	-	0.84	0.27	0.07	0.02	0.00
CHI	5-7	0.420	-	2.61	0.86	0.19	0.05	0.01
IND	6-6	0.410	54.56	54.63	15.30	3.47	0.82	0.20
TEN	3-9	0.396	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	4-8	0.383	1.48	1.49	0.38	0.08	0.02	0.00
DET	4-8	0.381	-	0.16	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	5-7	0.379	-	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
DAL	3-8	0.378	2.15	2.15	0.61	0.12	0.03	0.01
NO	4-8	0.370	-	0.23	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00
SD	3-9	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-8	0.338	-	0.40	0.11	0.02	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-10	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-8	0.264	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]