2015-11-03

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 8, Final

Arizona over New England

Carolina just barely beat a struggling Indianapolis team to remain undefeated, but that's not a good look for a team that should have won that game easily. We'll see if that foreshadows any decline in performance for Carolina.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis is sitting atop the AFC South despite a 3-5 record. When I run my millions of simulations, I also run one "absolute" simulation, where the stronger team always wins. In that scenario, Indianapolis finishes 7-9 and wins the division ahead of 5-11 Houston, 3-13 Tennessee, and 2-14 Jacksonville. There's bound to be some upsets along the way of course, but maybe that upset goes against them, and the AFC South winner finishes with just 5 or 6 wins. Also in that absolute scenario, Carolina and New England both go 16-0, each losing to Arizona in the NFC title game and Superbowl,  respectively.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI6-20.66872.4586.7170.3642.4925.3614.18
NE7-00.66194.3199.7090.0254.8731.5317.81
DEN7-00.61995.2998.9282.8545.1523.0411.97
CIN7-00.61997.4999.7085.8147.1524.0212.49
CAR7-00.60377.1896.9984.7345.0422.6511.10
GB6-10.59073.6992.3073.0736.6718.098.63
ATL6-20.57621.4279.5750.4524.0311.405.27
NYJ4-30.5684.9163.4736.1915.667.183.36
SEA4-40.5659.5922.6111.795.522.611.18
MIN5-20.56026.2356.3934.1915.647.233.23
PHI3-40.55039.7340.9819.978.863.951.73
PIT4-40.5502.4032.9616.796.933.071.38
KC3-50.5260.9121.0810.083.921.650.70
STL4-30.52517.9539.7420.128.583.691.52
NYG4-40.51233.1034.4015.466.262.561.03
OAK4-30.5093.7047.3823.298.733.491.43
BUF3-40.5060.6520.789.683.601.440.59
NO4-40.4651.0713.485.572.010.740.26
MIA3-40.4620.149.994.071.350.490.18
WAS3-40.45920.8322.519.023.201.150.40
BAL2-60.4560.052.030.770.250.090.03
IND3-50.44145.2645.6518.145.681.870.65
HOU3-50.44033.1333.6713.384.181.370.47
SD2-60.4360.101.520.560.170.060.02
TB3-40.4360.337.192.760.920.320.10
TEN1-60.4246.326.432.460.730.230.08
DAL2-50.4216.346.482.290.730.240.08
CLE2-60.4080.060.740.240.070.020.01
JAC2-50.39615.2915.975.671.560.450.14
CHI2-50.3900.070.580.190.050.020.00
DET1-70.3410.000.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-60.3130.010.050.010.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]

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