Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 8, Final

Arizona over New England

Carolina just barely beat a struggling Indianapolis team to remain undefeated, but that's not a good look for a team that should have won that game easily. We'll see if that foreshadows any decline in performance for Carolina.

Meanwhile, Indianapolis is sitting atop the AFC South despite a 3-5 record. When I run my millions of simulations, I also run one "absolute" simulation, where the stronger team always wins. In that scenario, Indianapolis finishes 7-9 and wins the division ahead of 5-11 Houston, 3-13 Tennessee, and 2-14 Jacksonville. There's bound to be some upsets along the way of course, but maybe that upset goes against them, and the AFC South winner finishes with just 5 or 6 wins. Also in that absolute scenario, Carolina and New England both go 16-0, each losing to Arizona in the NFC title game and Superbowl,  respectively.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	6-2	0.668	72.45	86.71	70.36	42.49	25.36	14.18
NE	7-0	0.661	94.31	99.70	90.02	54.87	31.53	17.81
DEN	7-0	0.619	95.29	98.92	82.85	45.15	23.04	11.97
CIN	7-0	0.619	97.49	99.70	85.81	47.15	24.02	12.49
CAR	7-0	0.603	77.18	96.99	84.73	45.04	22.65	11.10
GB	6-1	0.590	73.69	92.30	73.07	36.67	18.09	8.63
ATL	6-2	0.576	21.42	79.57	50.45	24.03	11.40	5.27
NYJ	4-3	0.568	4.91	63.47	36.19	15.66	7.18	3.36
SEA	4-4	0.565	9.59	22.61	11.79	5.52	2.61	1.18
MIN	5-2	0.560	26.23	56.39	34.19	15.64	7.23	3.23
PHI	3-4	0.550	39.73	40.98	19.97	8.86	3.95	1.73
PIT	4-4	0.550	2.40	32.96	16.79	6.93	3.07	1.38
KC	3-5	0.526	0.91	21.08	10.08	3.92	1.65	0.70
STL	4-3	0.525	17.95	39.74	20.12	8.58	3.69	1.52
NYG	4-4	0.512	33.10	34.40	15.46	6.26	2.56	1.03
OAK	4-3	0.509	3.70	47.38	23.29	8.73	3.49	1.43
BUF	3-4	0.506	0.65	20.78	9.68	3.60	1.44	0.59
NO	4-4	0.465	1.07	13.48	5.57	2.01	0.74	0.26
MIA	3-4	0.462	0.14	9.99	4.07	1.35	0.49	0.18
WAS	3-4	0.459	20.83	22.51	9.02	3.20	1.15	0.40
BAL	2-6	0.456	0.05	2.03	0.77	0.25	0.09	0.03
IND	3-5	0.441	45.26	45.65	18.14	5.68	1.87	0.65
HOU	3-5	0.440	33.13	33.67	13.38	4.18	1.37	0.47
SD	2-6	0.436	0.10	1.52	0.56	0.17	0.06	0.02
TB	3-4	0.436	0.33	7.19	2.76	0.92	0.32	0.10
TEN	1-6	0.424	6.32	6.43	2.46	0.73	0.23	0.08
DAL	2-5	0.421	6.34	6.48	2.29	0.73	0.24	0.08
CLE	2-6	0.408	0.06	0.74	0.24	0.07	0.02	0.01
JAC	2-5	0.396	15.29	15.97	5.67	1.56	0.45	0.14
CHI	2-5	0.390	0.07	0.58	0.19	0.05	0.02	0.00
DET	1-7	0.341	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	2-6	0.313	0.01	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]