2015-11-02

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 8, Sunday

Arizona over New England

This one doesn't seem to pass the smell test, but I've got Arizona over New England. Indeed, New England has had a better average game than Arizona, but Arizona has played 8 games to New England's 7, so their strength number isn't artificially held back as far. The design of my system would argue we can be slightly more sure of how good Arizona is, and that's the logic that puts them ahead. Anyway, by moving to 7-0, both New England and Cincinnati almost reached the next threshold in my tracker, a 99.9% chance at the playoffs. A win next week should do it for either of them.

In Rams news, they won again, and now have a 40% shot at the playoffs. It's been awhile since their odds were that high this late in the season. It's kind of nice to have hope.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI6-20.66872.4586.8370.8342.9025.7014.38
NE7-00.66194.3199.7090.0454.8731.5317.84
CIN7-00.61997.5099.7085.8047.1124.0012.51
DEN7-00.61995.2898.9182.8045.0923.0111.98
CAR6-00.59872.0295.0980.8042.3921.1510.27
GB6-10.59073.7492.4173.6237.1718.378.76
ATL6-20.57625.9779.8351.9424.9311.855.48
NYJ4-30.5684.9163.4236.0415.607.163.36
SEA4-40.5659.5922.7611.955.622.671.20
MIN5-20.56026.1956.5934.4915.867.353.28
PHI3-40.55039.6440.9319.998.913.991.74
PIT4-40.5502.4032.7716.656.883.041.37
KC3-50.5260.9221.0510.043.901.640.70
STL4-30.52517.9540.0220.498.763.781.56
NYG4-40.51233.1534.5315.576.332.601.04
OAK4-30.5093.7147.2623.158.693.461.42
BUF3-40.5060.6520.769.653.591.440.59
NO4-40.4651.5213.895.832.110.780.28
MIA3-40.4620.139.944.041.340.490.18
WAS3-40.45920.8622.639.113.251.170.41
BAL2-60.4560.052.010.760.250.090.03
IND3-40.44652.3852.8721.296.752.250.79
HOU3-50.44029.1129.8811.883.711.220.42
SD2-60.4360.101.500.550.170.060.02
TB3-40.4360.497.342.870.960.330.11
TEN1-60.4245.355.492.090.630.200.07
DAL2-50.4216.356.502.310.740.240.08
CLE2-60.4080.060.740.240.070.020.01
JAC2-50.39613.1614.014.971.370.400.12
CHI2-50.3900.070.590.190.050.020.00
DET1-70.3410.000.010.000.000.000.00
SF2-60.3130.010.050.010.000.000.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]

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