2015-10-13

Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 5, Final

Green Bay over Cincinnati

Cincinnati's divisional chances went down a bit due to Pittsburgh's win, and now they lead the AFC by just the slimmest of margins over New England, with Denver still just behind in 3rd. The NFC was relatively unaffected, with most movement coming from teams in the West that will face Pittsburgh this year, or the North who will face San Diego. For example, because the Rams have already faced Pittsburgh and Arizona hasn't, and Pittsburgh got stronger, Arizona's divisional chances dropped by 0.05%, and St. Louis's went up by as much. Of course, some of that movement could be due to the random nature of the simulations I run, but at least part of it is significant.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
ARI4-10.62680.6189.3269.5539.3022.0912.38
GB5-00.60388.6196.2382.2744.7623.7912.76
NE4-00.59656.7588.4469.7638.0720.4510.54
NYJ3-10.58431.3674.8252.6327.4714.367.23
CIN5-00.58178.6991.4075.1339.9520.6610.33
ATL5-00.57960.8895.1775.5839.0619.389.91
DEN5-00.57789.3993.1474.9639.3920.1710.00
CAR4-00.57037.8783.9857.9428.7614.027.04
PIT3-20.55316.6242.8425.8212.476.052.85
NYG3-20.54451.6759.8233.2515.106.953.31
BUF3-20.53811.4050.0529.2413.626.422.93
PHI2-30.53020.8228.5814.536.382.851.32
SEA2-30.52911.8528.6814.456.422.891.33
TEN1-30.52129.8232.7616.057.133.211.41
MIN2-20.5179.8535.0418.247.863.441.55
WAS2-30.48416.0424.4611.154.391.760.74
BAL1-40.4751.054.782.140.850.350.14
CLE2-30.4743.6410.415.062.040.840.33
IND3-20.46956.5558.6526.5910.484.191.63
SD2-30.4676.0914.666.752.661.070.41
OAK2-30.4663.2813.226.032.370.950.37
KC1-40.4541.245.572.390.910.350.13
DAL2-30.44211.4815.936.552.320.840.32
STL2-30.4356.7717.226.852.420.870.32
TB2-30.4351.0111.904.771.660.590.22
NO1-40.4290.242.821.070.360.130.05
HOU1-40.4287.608.673.381.200.430.15
MIA1-30.4280.493.561.490.530.200.07
JAC1-40.4096.037.032.570.860.300.10
CHI2-30.4001.367.702.740.870.290.10
DET0-50.3990.180.830.290.090.030.01
SF1-40.3850.772.330.780.240.080.02

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]

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