Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 2, Sunday

Arizona over Cincinnati

For fans around my age, those two teams are represent the prototypical "bad" teams, and in my mind it would make for a bad Superbowl. In reality, in any given year a team with 12-18 wins going into the big game is obviously a good team that year.

Several teams have dropped below a 1% chance of being the champion, and all of them are 0-2. The Giants are also 0-2 but juuust above 1% likely to win it all. Thanks to their loss to Arizona, Chicago has fallen all the way to the bottom by strength, and is officially the worse team in the league according to me. Note that recent weeks are not weighted more heavily in my system; it doesn't know when games take place. Chicago and Arizona just happen to now have the best and worst points scored to allowed ratios, respectively.

The Rams followed up their surprising win at home with probably a more surprising loss at Washington. We would have been happy to start 1-1 before the season began, but everyone would have expected that loss to come against the defending NFC Champions.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	2-0	0.546	56.91	72.48	55.45	29.80	15.89	8.42
CIN	2-0	0.544	51.01	67.41	51.50	27.52	14.66	7.71
CAR	2-0	0.541	46.17	66.93	49.52	26.30	13.87	7.28
GB	2-0	0.532	61.19	71.79	52.49	27.28	14.08	7.26
NYJ	1-0	0.529	30.28	50.91	36.07	18.62	9.58	4.90
PIT	1-1	0.529	26.08	40.23	26.97	13.88	7.14	3.65
DEN	2-0	0.527	48.43	64.03	47.28	24.31	12.42	6.32
TEN	1-1	0.526	41.85	48.72	31.67	16.12	8.19	4.16
DAL	2-0	0.524	54.59	67.31	47.75	24.39	12.38	6.28
NE	2-0	0.522	37.41	58.94	42.42	21.61	10.96	5.54
WAS	1-1	0.521	29.40	46.04	30.13	15.22	7.67	3.87
ATL	2-0	0.512	36.33	61.38	42.47	21.08	10.43	5.17
MIA	1-1	0.511	17.84	32.47	20.88	10.34	5.12	2.52
BUF	1-1	0.508	14.47	31.12	19.77	9.74	4.80	2.36
KC	1-1	0.500	16.72	32.03	20.05	9.69	4.68	2.26
SD	1-1	0.500	20.15	32.57	20.42	9.87	4.76	2.30
NYG	0-2	0.490	9.07	17.12	9.54	4.50	2.13	1.01
CLE	1-1	0.484	15.53	27.16	16.62	7.79	3.65	1.71
SF	1-1	0.482	17.77	33.26	20.11	9.34	4.34	2.03
BAL	0-2	0.482	7.37	12.91	7.27	3.39	1.59	0.74
MIN	1-1	0.480	22.24	34.02	19.96	9.22	4.26	1.98
STL	1-1	0.480	18.40	31.85	18.92	8.73	4.04	1.87
JAC	1-1	0.480	27.12	35.50	21.29	9.83	4.53	2.09
SEA	0-2	0.478	6.92	14.03	7.74	3.56	1.65	0.76
IND	0-1	0.476	18.00	23.37	13.31	6.10	2.80	1.29
OAK	1-1	0.475	14.70	25.63	15.19	6.96	3.19	1.46
DET	0-2	0.474	9.38	16.98	9.34	4.25	1.94	0.89
PHI	0-2	0.473	6.94	13.18	7.07	3.22	1.47	0.67
HOU	0-2	0.472	13.03	17.01	9.30	4.22	1.92	0.87
NO	0-2	0.466	4.96	11.92	6.39	2.86	1.28	0.58
TB	1-1	0.465	12.54	28.10	16.13	7.20	3.22	1.44
CHI	0-2	0.458	7.19	13.58	7.00	3.06	1.35	0.59

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]