Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 12, Thursday

New England over Carolina

Happy Thanksgiving a day late from me. After the 3 Thanksgiving games - the traditional Dallas and Detroit games, along with an NFC North showdown between Green Bay and Chicago, Carolina is looking pretty good, but New England maintains a slim edge in strength and overall Superbowl participation and winning chances. Carolina is now at 6 9's of certainty (99.9999%) to make the playoffs, but could still miss them even with 11 wins. The only other time that happened since the 1990 expansion to 12 playoff teams was New England in 2008, when they tied Miami and lost the AFC East title on a tiebreaker, and lost the last wildcard spot to Baltimore, also on a tiebreaker.

As a result of Carolina's win, New Orleans is eliminated from winning the NFC South. No complicated tiebreaker calculations have to be done for that one, since New Orleans can win at most 10 games.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-0	0.718	99.98	100.00	99.25	65.96	40.54	22.92
CAR	11-0	0.713	99.63	100.00	99.81	66.88	39.38	22.25
ARI	8-2	0.681	97.02	99.18	90.69	56.37	29.31	15.50
CIN	8-2	0.653	94.83	99.78	86.24	49.99	24.27	11.95
KC	5-5	0.616	11.74	64.50	38.05	16.30	7.74	3.51
GB	7-4	0.599	51.18	87.16	54.26	22.71	10.06	4.44
PIT	6-4	0.596	5.16	61.69	36.17	14.82	6.71	2.90
DEN	8-2	0.588	87.59	95.93	66.20	30.01	12.57	5.34
SEA	5-5	0.579	2.76	33.34	17.48	6.65	2.88	1.21
ATL	6-4	0.572	0.36	56.37	29.87	11.00	4.67	1.94
MIN	7-3	0.563	48.05	78.85	46.06	17.66	7.15	2.90
NYJ	5-5	0.555	0.02	28.08	14.20	5.08	2.13	0.84
NYG	5-5	0.536	65.51	66.40	31.85	10.95	4.16	1.58
BUF	5-5	0.534	0.00	35.39	17.42	5.89	2.35	0.88
TB	5-5	0.466	0.01	23.47	9.61	2.63	0.87	0.28
OAK	4-6	0.464	0.66	5.72	2.31	0.64	0.22	0.07
HOU	5-5	0.457	38.63	42.30	15.93	4.59	1.44	0.44
BAL	3-7	0.455	0.01	0.62	0.24	0.06	0.02	0.01
IND	5-5	0.453	52.28	53.99	20.19	5.76	1.78	0.54
STL	4-6	0.451	0.22	4.92	1.83	0.48	0.16	0.05
PHI	4-7	0.439	8.77	8.81	3.34	0.88	0.26	0.08
WAS	4-6	0.437	24.34	26.28	9.92	2.58	0.76	0.22
CHI	5-6	0.432	0.62	8.42	3.02	0.73	0.22	0.06
MIA	4-6	0.411	-	1.36	0.46	0.11	0.03	0.01
NO	4-6	0.404	-	3.33	1.12	0.25	0.07	0.02
JAC	4-6	0.392	8.97	10.45	3.29	0.77	0.20	0.05
TEN	2-8	0.389	0.12	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DET	4-7	0.388	0.14	2.06	0.67	0.14	0.04	0.01
DAL	3-8	0.378	1.37	1.38	0.45	0.10	0.02	0.01
SD	2-8	0.376	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-7	0.277	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]