Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 4, Sunday

Green Bay over Cincinnati

The Superbowl participants both changed since Thursday, thanks to Arizona's loss to St. Louis, which was quite unexpected, and the bye week for New England. Clearly they didn't actually get worse, they just aren't as proven at 3-0 as Cincinnati is at 4-0. Again, this is a case where my change of regression by the total games played out of 256 instead of team games played out of 16 would even out the glitch. I'm leaning more and more towards making that change, maybe after all the bye weeks this year.

As of now, Detroit is the only team without a win, though they still have Monday's game to play (or finish, by the time this posts). I'd be interested to know historically what the earliest ever week the last 0-win team picked up a win is. Good grammar. It's almost got to be at least week 3 since it's likely to have 2 0-1 teams face each other in week 2, and probably pretty rare in week 3 due to two 0-2 teams facing each other in many years. But, I don't think I'd pick Detroit to tie/set that record tonight by setting the mark at week 4. Seattle should hand them loss number 4.

As I mentioned, the Rams pulled off a big upset, and are now 2-0 in the NFC West. Something about this team makes them play their division games very tough. If we could just spread that magic to games against a few others, they'd have a real playoff shot.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
ARI	3-1	0.598	66.52	79.78	60.57	33.57	18.45	10.10
NYJ	3-1	0.585	41.01	76.20	56.97	31.15	16.88	8.88
GB	4-0	0.576	80.22	89.59	72.61	38.67	20.17	10.58
CIN	4-0	0.574	76.00	88.26	72.69	39.40	20.86	10.75
CAR	4-0	0.570	46.75	83.87	62.22	32.51	16.74	8.69
ATL	4-0	0.566	51.31	88.84	67.91	35.23	17.95	9.24
NE	3-0	0.562	46.85	79.13	59.28	30.87	15.92	8.02
DEN	4-0	0.559	74.88	85.15	67.76	35.37	18.00	9.01
PIT	2-2	0.544	16.58	35.85	22.23	10.98	5.43	2.64
NYG	2-2	0.540	41.07	49.78	28.93	13.76	6.60	3.22
BUF	2-2	0.533	11.27	39.07	23.61	11.34	5.49	2.60
SEA	1-2	0.527	14.98	28.43	15.84	7.39	3.48	1.65
TEN	1-2	0.520	39.24	43.28	23.54	10.88	5.08	2.35
MIN	2-2	0.517	15.85	35.93	20.47	9.37	4.30	2.00
WAS	2-2	0.498	24.41	35.12	18.93	8.22	3.59	1.60
DAL	2-2	0.489	25.84	32.48	16.58	7.04	3.01	1.32
PHI	1-3	0.482	8.68	12.50	5.99	2.50	1.06	0.46
OAK	2-2	0.480	10.14	24.86	13.21	5.63	2.42	1.02
BAL	1-3	0.479	4.02	11.57	5.73	2.44	1.05	0.44
SD	2-2	0.475	11.82	26.63	14.07	5.92	2.51	1.05
CLE	1-3	0.467	3.40	7.57	3.78	1.57	0.66	0.27
STL	2-2	0.466	16.75	31.41	16.04	6.53	2.67	1.11
NO	1-3	0.465	1.19	8.72	4.01	1.61	0.66	0.27
KC	1-3	0.460	3.16	10.38	4.93	1.98	0.81	0.33
IND	2-2	0.454	35.29	38.41	17.76	7.05	2.83	1.12
DET	0-3	0.450	2.22	6.83	3.15	1.23	0.49	0.19
HOU	1-3	0.441	15.72	17.73	7.84	3.02	1.18	0.45
MIA	1-3	0.427	0.87	4.42	1.97	0.74	0.28	0.10
TB	1-3	0.422	0.75	6.97	2.90	1.04	0.38	0.14
JAC	1-3	0.415	9.75	11.49	4.63	1.66	0.61	0.22
CHI	1-3	0.409	1.72	5.34	2.13	0.74	0.26	0.10
SF	1-3	0.394	1.76	4.42	1.70	0.57	0.20	0.07

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]