Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 11, Final

New England over Carolina

New England won as expected on Monday night, and is still favored to win the Superbowl over Carolina. They are note quite 100% into the playoffs, but they are over 99.995%, which rounds up to 100.00 the way I have it displayed. It's actually over 99.999% when I look at the raw numbers. When they really clinch, you'll see a "+" in that field. They did eliminate Miami from winning the AFC East. That seemed unlikely to me, so I double checked the tiebreakers.

If Miami and New England finish in a 2-way tie at the top of the division, they'll both be 1-1 in the first tiebreaker, head to head. The second tiebreaker is divisional record, and New England would only fall to 4-2 by losing out, while Miami can only reach 2-4 by winning out, thus losing the tiebreaker.

So what if Miami, New England, and Buffalo all finish 10-6? Buffalo has already beat Miami twice, and New England has already beaten Buffalo twice. That clinches the head to head tiebreaker for New England, who is 3-1 to Buffalo's 2-2 and Miami's 1-3.

How about Miami, New England, and New York at 10-6? Head to Head, all three teams would be 2-2, and the next tiebreaker is divisional record. Since New England can be at worst 4-2, Miami can only reach 2-4, and New York would be either 3-3 or 2-4 depending on their result against Buffalo, New England has clinched that scenario as well.

In the case all 4 teams tie at 10-6, head to head and divisional record are the same thing. Either New England will win it at 4-2, or New York and Miami will be eliminated by that tiebreaker, and New England and Buffalo will revert to the two-team tiebreaker, which, as I said, will go to New England having beaten Buffalo twice.

So, I'm satisfied Miami cannot win the AFC East. I believe Buffalo or New York are going to need to win 11 games to have any shot at winning the division over New England, though I haven't quite worked all the possible ways they can all 3 finish 10-6 to prove it yet.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-0	0.718	99.98	100.00	99.20	65.90	40.50	23.60
CAR	10-0	0.683	98.91	99.99	99.24	62.99	35.00	18.59
ARI	8-2	0.681	96.78	98.95	87.91	54.09	29.63	15.67
CIN	8-2	0.653	94.84	99.79	86.28	49.98	24.27	12.37
KC	5-5	0.616	11.73	65.04	38.38	16.45	7.81	3.68
GB	7-3	0.603	64.80	94.26	62.82	27.74	12.91	5.75
PIT	6-4	0.596	5.16	62.38	36.59	15.00	6.78	3.05
DEN	8-2	0.588	87.59	96.08	66.33	30.06	12.59	5.56
SEA	5-5	0.579	2.95	31.65	16.03	6.46	2.87	1.21
ATL	6-4	0.572	1.05	58.30	30.46	11.94	5.19	2.15
MIN	7-3	0.563	34.98	77.13	44.16	17.41	7.36	2.99
NYJ	5-5	0.555	0.02	27.88	14.08	5.04	2.11	0.86
NYG	5-5	0.536	56.89	58.15	27.59	9.99	3.91	1.49
BUF	5-5	0.534	0.00	33.64	16.51	5.58	2.23	0.87
PHI	4-6	0.500	20.77	21.24	9.23	3.05	1.10	0.38
TB	5-5	0.466	0.04	23.76	9.40	2.76	0.93	0.30
OAK	4-6	0.464	0.67	5.90	2.38	0.66	0.22	0.07
HOU	5-5	0.457	38.62	42.41	15.95	4.60	1.44	0.46
BAL	3-7	0.455	0.01	0.64	0.25	0.07	0.02	0.01
IND	5-5	0.453	52.28	54.10	20.20	5.76	1.78	0.56
STL	4-6	0.451	0.27	5.20	1.85	0.52	0.17	0.05
WAS	4-6	0.437	19.69	21.26	7.92	2.19	0.67	0.20
CHI	4-6	0.427	0.20	3.40	1.17	0.30	0.09	0.03
DAL	3-7	0.417	2.65	2.68	0.95	0.25	0.07	0.02
MIA	4-6	0.411	-	1.44	0.49	0.12	0.03	0.01
NO	4-6	0.404	0.00	3.62	1.17	0.28	0.08	0.02
JAC	4-6	0.392	8.97	10.52	3.30	0.77	0.20	0.05
TEN	2-8	0.389	0.12	0.13	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
SD	2-8	0.376	0.01	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00
DET	3-7	0.335	0.01	0.37	0.10	0.02	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.333	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-7	0.277	0.00	0.03	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]