Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 13, Thursday

New England over Carolina

As I've mentioned before, divisional games have very little effect on the rest of the conference unless both teams are on the wildcard bubble, and almost none on the opposite conference. Green Bay's last-second touchdown was exciting, but didn't change the playoff picture much. Minnesota's divisional chances dropped, as did Seattle's playoff chances. It did officially eliminate Detroit from winning the division, but they're still alive in the wildcard race. I still haven't been able to run enough simulations to get Cleveland past the wildcard round. This is the latest we've gone without an elimination since I started this blog in 2011, with the end of week 12 being the latest first elimination so far. It's also the first time we've made it to December with all teams still alive.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-1	0.716	99.92	100.00	97.05	62.36	36.26	20.11
CAR	11-0	0.713	99.96	100.00	99.84	66.09	37.78	20.81
ARI	9-2	0.698	97.12	99.64	90.63	56.96	30.58	16.33
CIN	9-2	0.696	98.77	99.95	88.53	53.93	28.92	15.34
KC	6-5	0.630	8.70	81.96	49.25	21.34	10.00	4.59
GB	8-4	0.606	45.84	94.50	59.63	24.54	10.86	4.71
DEN	9-2	0.599	91.04	98.75	71.26	30.96	13.06	5.57
SEA	6-5	0.593	2.87	51.67	27.60	10.62	4.64	1.95
NYJ	6-5	0.589	0.08	44.12	22.21	8.66	3.71	1.55
MIN	8-3	0.588	54.03	92.56	57.63	22.84	9.62	4.00
PIT	6-5	0.574	1.23	36.49	18.17	6.75	2.79	1.12
ATL	6-5	0.554	0.04	35.26	16.76	5.73	2.31	0.89
NYG	5-6	0.526	31.54	33.37	14.72	4.78	1.73	0.62
BUF	5-6	0.518	-	16.01	6.54	2.09	0.76	0.27
HOU	6-5	0.496	40.58	49.73	19.53	6.01	2.01	0.66
IND	6-5	0.478	56.95	60.32	22.82	6.68	2.12	0.67
OAK	5-6	0.470	0.27	8.63	3.40	0.94	0.30	0.09
BAL	4-7	0.467	0.00	0.92	0.33	0.09	0.03	0.01
WAS	5-6	0.448	55.69	56.73	20.66	5.40	1.59	0.46
TB	5-6	0.440	-	12.11	4.40	1.09	0.33	0.09
PHI	4-7	0.439	10.52	10.54	3.75	0.96	0.28	0.08
CHI	5-6	0.432	0.13	7.94	2.72	0.65	0.19	0.05
STL	4-7	0.394	0.01	1.79	0.52	0.11	0.03	0.01
SD	3-8	0.386	-	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
TEN	2-9	0.383	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	4-7	0.383	2.47	2.90	0.83	0.18	0.04	0.01
DET	4-8	0.381	-	0.55	0.15	0.03	0.01	0.00
MIA	4-7	0.380	-	0.14	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
DAL	3-8	0.378	2.25	2.25	0.68	0.14	0.03	0.01
NO	4-7	0.372	-	1.08	0.31	0.06	0.01	0.00
CLE	2-9	0.325	-	0.00	0.00	-	-	-
SF	3-8	0.259	-	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]