Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 14, Thursday

Cincinnati over Arizona

Arizona clinched a playoff berth, and Carolina either had a first round bye or won their opening game in all my simulations, so I show them advancing to the next round. I should point out they haven't actually clinched that bye yet. The only way they won't have that bye is if there is a 3-way tie with Green Bay and Arizona at 12-4, where Green Bay would be #1 by virtue of beating both Carolina and Arizona, then Arizona would get the #2 seed based on conference record.

I also discovered how San Diego can still make the playoffs. It doesn't necessarily require any ties like I suspected, but it does fall all the way to the strength of victory tiebreaker - which is the 5th tiebreaker in this scenario - against Kansas City, which San Diego is currently losing by a lot. So, lots of games have to go the right way for them to catch up. This week, besides a win, San Diego also needs Pittsburgh to lose to stay at just 7 wins, and Denver to beat Oakland, to keep Oakland at 5 wins, so they can afford Oakland's 6th victory against Kansas City in Week 17. I haven't worked out all the scenarios to know how many of these need to happen to keep them alive, but among the games that would be helpful to San Diego are Buffalo over Philadelphia, Cleveland over San Francisco, Detroit over St. Louis, New England over Houston, Indianapolis over Jacksonville, and Miami over New York.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
CIN	10-2	0.749	99.14	99.98	90.17	57.62	34.71	19.42
ARI	11-2	0.749	99.94	+	98.41	67.63	39.95	22.61
CAR	12-0	0.713	+	+	+	65.22	33.43	17.43
NE	10-2	0.708	99.83	99.99	91.37	53.20	27.87	14.20
KC	7-5	0.654	7.06	89.91	58.08	25.65	11.77	5.28
SEA	7-5	0.652	0.06	87.07	57.22	23.86	11.00	4.98
PIT	7-5	0.639	0.86	45.69	24.41	10.31	4.60	1.99
DEN	10-2	0.633	92.94	99.23	76.80	35.14	14.97	6.39
GB	8-4	0.606	67.31	93.98	58.52	20.90	8.78	3.56
NYJ	7-5	0.596	0.17	43.53	20.64	7.87	3.18	1.24
ATL	6-6	0.546	-	10.56	5.31	1.66	0.59	0.20
BUF	6-6	0.535	-	19.86	7.48	2.42	0.85	0.28
NYG	5-7	0.521	27.87	29.01	11.96	3.46	1.16	0.38
MIN	8-5	0.507	32.69	75.45	31.54	8.72	2.80	0.88
HOU	6-6	0.476	43.89	44.68	15.06	4.16	1.20	0.34
BAL	4-8	0.462	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
PHI	5-7	0.454	29.40	29.43	10.33	2.45	0.68	0.19
TB	6-6	0.447	-	26.73	10.86	2.57	0.69	0.18
OAK	5-7	0.444	-	0.84	0.27	0.07	0.02	0.00
WAS	5-7	0.440	37.53	38.01	12.91	2.94	0.79	0.21
CHI	5-7	0.420	-	3.62	1.18	0.26	0.06	0.02
IND	6-6	0.410	54.57	54.64	15.30	3.47	0.82	0.19
TEN	3-9	0.396	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
JAC	4-8	0.383	1.48	1.49	0.39	0.08	0.02	0.00
DAL	4-8	0.382	5.20	5.21	1.50	0.28	0.06	0.01
DET	4-8	0.381	-	0.16	0.05	0.01	0.00	0.00
MIA	5-7	0.379	-	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
NO	4-8	0.371	-	0.32	0.09	0.02	0.00	0.00
SD	3-9	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
STL	4-8	0.338	-	0.44	0.12	0.02	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-10	0.271	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	4-8	0.264	-	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 11, Final)

First to 99.9999% chance of Playoffs: Carolina (Week 12, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs: Carolina (Week 13, Sunday)

First team eliminated from winning a division: Miami (Week 11, Final)
First team eliminated from the playoffs: Cleveland (Week 13, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]