Superbowl 50 Projection, Week 10, Final

New England over Carolina

Two interesting things happened last night. First, Cincinnati lost to Houston, a game I said they should have easily won. Still, they didn't lose much ground, because they're still 2.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh in the division, and still the stronger team.

The second interesting thing is that New England's chances of winning the conference actually went down just slightly. It would seem it should have gone up, right? As I said before, Cincinnati is still just about as likely to make the playoffs, because 8-1 really isn't that far behind 9-0 (and I don't take home field advantage into account in my simulations). However, Cincinnati's strength went up slightly, due to their strength only being regressed 7/16 of the way back to .500 versus the previous 8/16, since they've now played 9 games. This is at least the 3rd time this year I've felt the need to mention that little quirk of my system. The strength would have gone much higher with a big win, but the close loss still gave them slight boost, and that means that New England doesn't win as many of the simulations against Cincinnati.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-0	0.698	98.75	99.96	98.09	64.16	37.80	21.98
ARI	7-2	0.676	93.97	97.10	82.32	49.63	28.53	15.26
CIN	8-1	0.662	96.50	99.85	92.38	56.15	28.97	15.66
CAR	9-0	0.644	94.17	99.94	96.39	55.96	29.22	14.60
MIN	7-2	0.602	67.68	90.43	64.22	30.16	14.59	6.64
PIT	6-4	0.596	3.49	60.43	36.02	15.10	6.98	3.29
DEN	7-2	0.582	86.45	91.90	59.04	25.76	11.20	5.11
ATL	6-3	0.577	5.79	76.89	41.51	18.08	8.20	3.53
GB	6-3	0.570	31.80	81.07	46.95	20.09	9.02	3.82
NYJ	5-4	0.568	0.68	47.39	26.59	10.31	4.47	1.98
PHI	4-5	0.559	34.50	37.39	18.45	7.69	3.32	1.37
KC	4-5	0.558	9.04	36.54	18.98	7.19	3.04	1.32
BUF	5-4	0.546	0.57	43.58	23.29	8.52	3.51	1.48
SEA	4-5	0.544	3.42	17.64	8.28	3.38	1.44	0.57
NYG	5-5	0.536	37.87	40.87	19.23	7.54	3.08	1.20
WAS	4-5	0.492	26.99	30.48	12.95	4.56	1.67	0.59
OAK	4-5	0.475	4.26	13.39	5.65	1.70	0.59	0.21
STL	4-5	0.459	2.57	9.66	3.56	1.18	0.41	0.13
BAL	2-7	0.451	0.00	0.31	0.12	0.03	0.01	0.00
IND	4-5	0.447	51.81	52.49	20.04	5.71	1.79	0.59
HOU	4-5	0.443	35.79	36.87	13.90	3.91	1.21	0.40
CHI	4-5	0.433	0.52	6.32	2.19	0.65	0.21	0.06
MIA	4-5	0.432	0.00	3.91	1.51	0.40	0.13	0.04
SD	2-7	0.429	0.25	0.51	0.19	0.05	0.02	0.00
TB	4-5	0.412	0.04	7.71	2.55	0.71	0.22	0.06
TEN	2-7	0.404	2.90	2.94	0.99	0.25	0.07	0.02
NO	4-6	0.404	0.01	3.39	1.07	0.29	0.09	0.02
DAL	2-7	0.397	0.64	0.67	0.22	0.06	0.02	0.00
JAC	3-6	0.387	9.50	9.93	3.21	0.76	0.20	0.06
DET	2-7	0.335	0.00	0.17	0.04	0.01	0.00	0.00
CLE	2-8	0.332	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
SF	3-6	0.304	0.04	0.25	0.06	0.01	0.00	0.00

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: New England (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Green Bay (Week 4, Final)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: New England (Week 8, Thursday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 9, Thursday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]