Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Final

New England over Seattle

Yesterday I got a comment asking about the ridiculous looking ranking of having Dallas below Houston, despite the 3-game difference in record, and Dallas having actually beaten Houston.

To address the second point first, Dallas won by 3 in overtime, so that's practically a tie in terms of using head-to-head to determine who is better.

As for the Strength column, that's determined purely by points scored and points allowed, which is basically Bill James' baseball formula for determined a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage. The theory goes that a team that allows about as many points as it scores will be about .500 in its future games, regardless of if it managed to pull off a bunch of small wins and few huge losses, or vice versa. That's why 7-7 San Francisco is listed at .460, but 7-7 Miami is at .554, and 7-7 Houston is at .601. A team could even be 1-13 at this point, but if they won a game 62-0 and lost the rest 2-0, they'd be near the top. The actual formula I use is somewhat complex, involving exponents, league-wide points per game, and regressing to .500 based on how far into the season it is, but there is a simplification that can be made for purposes of comparing 2 teams: the higher a team's pf/pa ratio, the higher their strength will be, where pf = points for, and pa = points against.

Houston has scored 324 point against 277 allowed. Dallas has scored 381, but allowed 328. That gives Houston a slightly higher ratio of pf/pa, and the corollary to that is that their strength is at .601, where Dallas is at .596. Houston's points have not been distributed as favorably for them, though, so they've won 3 less games than Dallas. The meaning of those strengths in my projections is that Houston would win 50.52% of the simulations if they played again. That's just barely an advantage.

One caveat to mention is that this is supposed to represent an average of the teams over their last 14 games, so the average Houston lineup over the last 14 games would be slightly favored to win over the average Dallas lineup. This doesn't mean the Houston lineup with the 3rd string QB would be favored to win this week against the mostly-intact Dallas lineup. It does mean that Arizona, even at 11-3, is likely even worse than their 11th-best ranking, since they're now on QB number 3 as well.

Hopefully all that made some sense. I realize I did a little hand-waving to get from pf/pa to strength, but I didn't want to post a full screen worth of LaTeX equations to show my work.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.917	61.429	37.150	22.659
BAL	9-5	0.706	26.987	73.909	44.150	21.811	11.748	6.630
SEA	10-4	0.703	49.701	94.796	80.685	48.578	28.434	14.621
GB	10-4	0.681	51.029	96.997	78.036	44.581	24.509	11.958
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	57.805	28.714	13.966	7.448
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.504	50.432	22.159	11.254
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.861	18.771	8.091	3.710	1.855
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	17.482	8.350	3.611	1.588	0.763
PHI	9-5	0.616	40.604	45.447	21.706	10.103	4.782	2.000
DET	10-4	0.606	48.971	94.094	69.010	33.329	14.891	6.091
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.299	+	82.116	36.824	16.705	6.794
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	4.283	1.937	0.684	0.306	0.138
DAL	10-4	0.596	59.396	68.666	36.497	16.368	7.354	2.936
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.707	72.212	32.967	12.365	4.864	2.127
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	0.052	0.020	0.006	0.003	0.001
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.307	78.341	31.733	10.784	3.800	1.510
SD	8-6	0.520	-	17.859	6.846	2.073	0.706	0.262
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	6-8	0.482	57.403	57.403	19.430	6.513	2.203	0.653
ATL	5-9	0.462	28.830	28.830	9.234	2.929	0.938	0.263
SF	7-7	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.363	13.767	13.767	3.286	0.774	0.184	0.038
CHI	5-9	0.304	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-12	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Sunday

New England over Seattle

Seattle took over the NFC, despite currently being a game behind in their division. They're just about even-money to win the NFC West, and that's not accounting for Arizona being down to their third string QB. In the AFC, New England, Indianapolis, and Denver all clinched their divisions, and the AFC North will likely account for the other 3 playoff teams. The 6 AFC teams could actually be locked up by the end of week 16, though with seeding still at stake in the final week. I'm sort of rooting for that, just to see if the NFL would really put the Carolina-Atlanta game in the prime time slot if it is likely to be the only remaining game decide a playoff berth.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	11-3	0.744	+	+	98.917	61.429	37.149	22.638
BAL	9-5	0.706	26.987	73.908	44.150	21.811	11.744	6.621
SEA	10-4	0.703	49.700	94.880	81.439	49.107	28.736	14.777
GB	10-4	0.681	51.232	96.999	78.225	44.768	24.589	11.995
IND	10-4	0.679	+	+	57.805	28.712	13.965	7.439
DEN	11-3	0.656	+	+	98.504	50.436	22.165	11.245
KC	8-6	0.649	-	35.861	18.770	8.091	3.710	1.853
BUF	8-6	0.630	-	17.483	8.350	3.610	1.589	0.762
PHI	9-5	0.616	40.606	45.646	21.813	10.153	4.800	2.007
DET	10-4	0.606	48.768	93.492	68.549	33.159	14.805	6.055
ARI	11-3	0.604	50.300	+	83.157	37.295	16.904	6.875
HOU	7-7	0.601	-	4.284	1.937	0.684	0.306	0.137
DAL	10-4	0.596	59.394	68.984	36.916	16.563	7.431	2.966
PIT	9-5	0.589	33.707	72.213	32.968	12.366	4.865	2.125
MIA	7-7	0.554	-	0.052	0.020	0.006	0.003	0.001
CIN	9-4-1	0.548	39.306	78.340	31.732	10.782	3.799	1.507
SD	8-6	0.520	-	17.860	6.846	2.074	0.706	0.262
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	5-9	0.462	32.570	32.570	10.428	3.307	1.059	0.296
SF	7-7	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.456	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	6-8	0.455	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-8	0.455	44.778	44.778	14.071	4.374	1.373	0.376
CLE	7-7	0.446	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	5-8-1	0.363	22.651	22.651	5.403	1.273	0.303	0.062
CHI	5-8	0.331	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.283	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-12	0.281	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	3-11	0.244	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-12	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-12	0.195	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-12	0.193	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)
First to clinch Playoffs (for real this time): Arizona, New England, Indianapolis, Denver (Week 15, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

There wasn't much movement today, with only one FBS game taking place, Navy defeating Army. There were also 4 FCS games, and 2 games each at Division II and III, which still affect the rankings, though they aren't likely to change an FBS team as you go further down the divisions due to who plays who. I do think that it's kind of interesting that the playoffs and bowls are already set before the FBS season officially ends. Would the whole thing have to be put on hold for a week if Army or Navy were 11-0 going into this game?

None of my top 25 teams changed positions after these games. The highest-ranked team affected was Utah, who fell one spot behind #28 Cincinnati to #29. Neither team actually played Army or Navy, but they were so closely scored that the subtle shifts in their opponents strengths caused them to swap.

Next up was Air Force, who played both Army and Navy, and jumped up one place to #31 over #32 USC. Georgia Southern got a direct boost from the Navy win, and moved up 1 spot to #39, moving Toledo to #40.

Notre Dame also benefited from the Navy win, moving from #46 up to a tie for #44, and bumping North Carolina State down to #46.

Navy, of course, got the biggest boost, from #70 to #54. As far as relative ordering, a few pairs of the teams they passed swapped places too, including Western Kentucky and Tennessee at #55-56, North Carolina and Arkansas at #57-58, and Houston and Texas at #69-70.

Army interestingly stayed right at #101. They did lose 7 spots in my overall rankings of all 720 teams, but the teams they fell behind were all FCS or below.

Finally, Louisiana-Monroe wrested the #107 spot from Southern Miss, who falls to #108.

I'll probably post weekly updates of these rankings throughout the bowl season, but it's practically a lock my #1 team at the end will be the winner of the playoff, because the strength of 2 victories over 2 top 4 teams should lift any of the 4 of them to the top.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Ohio State	12-1
4	Oregon	12-1
5	Boise State	11-2
6	TCU	11-1
7	Marshall	12-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Georgia Tech	10-3
10	Missouri	10-3
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Mississippi State	10-2
13	Michigan State	10-2
14	Arizona	10-3
15	Ole Miss	9-3
16	Northern Illinois	11-2
17	UCLA	9-3
18	Georgia	9-3
19	Colorado State	10-2
20	Clemson	9-3
21	Kansas State	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Arizona State	9-3
24	Auburn	8-4
25	Louisville	9-3
26	LSU	8-4
27	Utah State	9-4
28	Cincinnati	9-3
29	Utah	8-4
30	UCF	9-3
31	Air Force	9-3
32	USC	8-4
33	Minnesota	8-4
34	Duke	9-3
35	Memphis	9-3
36	Oklahoma	8-4
37	Louisiana Tech	8-5
38	Washington	8-5
39	Georgia Southern	9-3
40	Toledo	8-4
41	BYU	8-4
42	Texas A&M	7-5
43	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
44	Maryland	7-5
44	Notre Dame	7-5
46	North Carolina State	7-5
47	Stanford	7-5
48	East Carolina	8-4
49	West Virginia	7-5
50	Boston College	7-5
51	Rutgers	7-5
52	Iowa	7-5
53	Western Michigan	8-4
54	Navy	7-5
55	Western Kentucky	7-5
56	Tennessee	6-6
57	North Carolina	6-6
58	Arkansas	6-6
59	Nevada	7-5
60	Miami (FL)	6-6
61	Florida	6-5
62	Illinois	6-6
63	Rice	7-5
64	Virginia Tech	6-6
65	South Carolina	6-6
66	UTEP	7-5
67	Central Michigan	7-5
68	Arkansas State	7-5
69	Houston	7-5
70	Texas	6-6
71	Oklahoma State	6-6
72	Bowling Green	7-6
73	Pittsburgh	6-6
74	Penn State	6-6
75	Appalachian State	7-5
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Virginia	5-7
78	Middle Tennessee	6-6
79	San Diego State	6-5
80	Fresno State	6-7
81	Old Dominion	6-6
82	UAB	6-6
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Kentucky	5-7
85	Michigan	5-7
86	California	5-7
87	Temple	6-6
88	South Alabama	6-6
89	Ohio	6-6
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Texas Tech	4-8
94	Wyoming	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	South Florida	4-8
97	New Mexico	4-8
98	Florida International	4-8
99	Akron	5-7
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-8
102	Purdue	3-9
103	Washington State	3-9
104	UTSA	4-8
105	Hawaii	4-9
106	Vanderbilt	3-9
107	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
108	Southern Miss	3-9
109	Kansas	3-9
110	Tulane	3-9
111	Wake Forest	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Iowa State	2-10
115	Florida Atlantic	3-9
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	UNLV	2-11
120	Connecticut	2-10
121	Massachusetts	3-9
122	Miami (OH)	2-10
123	Kent State	2-9
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0
Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State
Week 15 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 15, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

I hereby demand simulation of ties next year!

Right now I show Arizona having clinched a playoff berth. But, they don't truly clinch until Dallas and Philadelphia end in a non-tie, or some other combination of results this weekend. The odds of a tie are small, so I'll go ahead and say they've clinched. The Rams loss eliminated them, as well as Minnesota, because Minnesota's path to the playoffs involved getting into specific ties involving 3 or more teams at 9-7, including the Rams, who they beat head to head.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-3	0.705	98.664	99.481	95.575	57.081	33.181	18.919
BAL	8-5	0.688	34.746	65.750	39.735	20.662	11.268	6.205
GB	10-3	0.686	69.410	98.686	87.457	51.598	29.491	15.648
SEA	9-4	0.679	37.160	83.421	65.867	37.509	20.568	10.739
IND	9-4	0.662	96.678	97.770	61.802	31.676	16.102	8.403
PHI	9-4	0.635	74.011	79.429	45.191	22.015	11.105	5.264
DEN	10-3	0.632	99.503	99.968	95.406	48.501	22.149	10.841
MIA	7-6	0.612	1.024	16.239	7.706	3.463	1.578	0.739
HOU	7-6	0.612	3.322	21.726	10.829	4.730	2.190	1.025
BUF	7-6	0.612	0.312	7.443	3.536	1.576	0.724	0.339
KC	7-6	0.612	-	28.374	13.868	6.017	2.734	1.280
ARI	11-3	0.604	62.840	+	86.133	40.877	18.544	8.202
DET	9-4	0.600	30.590	83.842	54.599	25.479	11.627	5.093
DAL	9-4	0.579	25.989	51.328	27.184	11.856	5.206	2.168
PIT	8-5	0.576	34.784	62.103	30.679	12.399	5.129	2.215
SD	8-5	0.545	0.497	37.991	16.011	5.890	2.302	0.924
CLE	7-6	0.513	4.371	9.058	3.689	1.246	0.451	0.168
STL	6-8	0.487	-	-	-	-	-	-
SF	7-6	0.485	-	3.294	1.311	0.452	0.163	0.054
CIN	8-4-1	0.483	26.100	54.098	21.164	6.760	2.193	0.754
ATL	5-8	0.475	49.028	49.028	16.699	5.541	1.862	0.596
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	-	-	-	-	-
NO	5-8	0.454	39.459	39.459	12.738	4.002	1.274	0.387
NYG	4-9	0.436	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-8-1	0.361	11.513	11.513	2.821	0.670	0.161	0.037
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-11	0.289	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-11	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-11	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)
First to clinch Playoffs (sort of): Arizona (Week 15, Thursday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Final

New England over Green Bay

Green Bay beat Atlanta as expected, though maybe not by quite the margin expected. As a result, they hang on to the NFC favorite position. Meanwhile, the NFC South is now led by 2 5-8 teams, and in 3rd there is a 4-8-1 team with an over 11% chance of winning the division. Atlanta and New Orleans still have one head to head game, so the division winner could be as bad as 5-10-1, or 6-10 barring more ties.

I neglected to mention it (or notice it) yesterday, but Denver is the first team to breach the 99.9% mark for chance of making the playoffs. They could clinch the division this week, and allow me to dispense with the silly tracking of 99.99%, etc.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-3	0.705	98.666	99.481	95.578	57.086	33.186	18.969
BAL	8-5	0.688	34.761	65.766	39.748	20.669	11.273	6.224
GB	10-3	0.686	69.412	98.713	87.796	52.428	30.061	15.951
SEA	9-4	0.679	48.886	84.375	67.809	39.256	21.606	11.281
IND	9-4	0.662	96.682	97.762	61.800	31.678	16.103	8.427
PHI	9-4	0.635	74.019	79.861	47.863	23.623	11.927	5.653
DEN	10-3	0.632	99.504	99.968	95.384	48.487	22.142	10.872
MIA	7-6	0.612	1.022	16.238	7.704	3.462	1.577	0.741
HOU	7-6	0.612	3.318	21.724	10.829	4.729	2.190	1.029
BUF	7-6	0.612	0.311	7.441	3.535	1.575	0.723	0.341
KC	7-6	0.612	-	28.380	13.870	6.016	2.733	1.284
DET	9-4	0.600	30.588	83.770	54.980	25.618	11.809	5.172
ARI	10-3	0.587	51.114	96.959	77.309	35.021	15.276	6.483
DAL	9-4	0.579	25.981	52.422	29.344	12.945	5.709	2.377
PIT	8-5	0.576	34.783	62.104	30.703	12.408	5.131	2.224
SD	8-5	0.545	0.496	37.995	16.009	5.889	2.300	0.927
CLE	7-6	0.513	4.370	9.056	3.688	1.245	0.450	0.168
STL	6-7	0.500	-	0.077	0.029	0.010	0.004	0.001
SF	7-6	0.485	-	3.816	1.525	0.522	0.189	0.062
CIN	8-4-1	0.483	26.086	54.085	21.151	6.755	2.190	0.757
ATL	5-8	0.475	49.029	49.029	17.246	5.733	1.929	0.617
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NO	5-8	0.454	39.464	39.464	13.171	4.146	1.321	0.401
NYG	4-9	0.435	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-8-1	0.361	11.507	11.507	2.926	0.696	0.168	0.038
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-11	0.289	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-11	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-11	0.221	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.214	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

The projections has been the same for weeks, so let's see what's going on with other teams.

The Rams have now won 2 consecutive games as shutouts. Nevermind that the teams are a combined 5-21. They were also eliminated from winning the NFC West yesterday, since Arizona now has 10 wins and they've got 7 losses.

Baltimore has climbed back up to be the second strongest team, even though their record places them a bit lower. Look out for them to outplay their playoff seed if they make it out of the highly successful AFC North.

Kansas City and San Francisco were also eliminated from their divisions, but via tiebreakers. Chicago was eliminated from the playoffs completely after falling to a near-0 chance with their Thursday loss.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	10-3	0.705	98.659	99.478	95.586	57.083	33.181	19.081
BAL	8-5	0.688	34.972	65.832	39.796	20.694	11.285	6.270
GB	9-3	0.682	61.919	95.004	81.060	47.742	27.171	14.279
SEA	9-4	0.679	48.876	85.499	69.010	40.151	22.325	11.658
IND	9-4	0.662	96.679	97.762	61.808	31.681	16.104	8.484
PHI	9-4	0.635	74.008	80.238	49.309	24.656	12.537	5.943
DEN	10-3	0.632	99.503	99.968	95.371	48.476	22.136	10.946
MIA	7-6	0.612	1.025	16.284	7.726	3.473	1.582	0.749
HOU	7-6	0.612	3.321	21.722	10.830	4.732	2.191	1.037
BUF	7-6	0.612	0.316	7.541	3.583	1.596	0.733	0.348
KC	7-6	0.612	-	28.386	13.866	6.015	2.734	1.293
DET	9-4	0.600	38.081	84.072	56.655	26.820	12.429	5.445
ARI	10-3	0.587	51.124	97.183	77.436	35.112	15.495	6.575
DAL	9-4	0.579	25.992	53.926	30.532	13.586	6.039	2.516
PIT	8-5	0.576	34.463	61.747	30.518	12.335	5.102	2.228
SD	8-5	0.545	0.497	38.039	16.031	5.897	2.304	0.936
CLE	7-6	0.513	4.406	9.066	3.696	1.248	0.452	0.170
STL	6-7	0.500	-	0.089	0.034	0.012	0.005	0.002
SF	7-6	0.485	-	3.984	1.598	0.561	0.204	0.067
ATL	5-7	0.485	57.818	57.818	20.981	7.282	2.532	0.833
CIN	8-4-1	0.483	26.160	54.175	21.190	6.770	2.198	0.767
MIN	6-7	0.460	-	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
NO	5-8	0.454	32.802	32.802	10.988	3.499	1.122	0.340
NYG	4-9	0.436	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	4-8-1	0.361	9.380	9.380	2.396	0.577	0.140	0.032
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-10	0.305	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-11	0.289	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-11	0.246	-	-	-	-	-	-
TEN	2-11	0.231	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	2-11	0.222	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-11	0.215	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 14, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 15

Imagine my surprise to find that I completely agree with the College Football Playoff committee.

Perhaps my agreement is not complete, but in the end the bracket is the same, and since the games are at neutral sites, that's almost all that matters. I have #1 Florida State vs #4 Oregon, whereas the CFP has Oregon at #2 and Florida State #3. The game is in Pasadena, which is closer to Oregon, but probably far enough to be any actual advantage. The other game, Ohio State "at" Alabama in New Orleans is just as the CFP set it up, just with different seeds. I'm not sure if rearranged seeding would have affected the locations of the games, though I could see an argument that the #1 team should get the location closest to home (Florida State in New Orleans in my rankings), and the rest fall into place from there.

So, why did TCU lose its Top 4 spot despite a convincing win? I would argue they never should have been up at #3 in the first place, and in fact I had them 11th last week. However, I do have them ranked higher than Baylor, which was a point of contention for the last few weeks among the pundits. I think the committee dodged most controversy by leaving out the Big 12, though they could have dodged it even better by not putting TCU so high last week.

If Missouri had beaten Alabama, and all other games stayed the same, I would have had them 5th, and the top 4 would have been the same, though Alabama would have fallen to #4. I honestly don't think the committee could have gotten away with choosing a conference non-champion without the champ, though, and both Alabama and Missouri would have been left out. As it is, Missouri fell to a respectable 10th in my ranks, and 16 by the committee. Although, I'm not sure if they care about much after #4.

Finally, congrats to SMU for avoiding the perfect 0-12 season. They even climbed out the cellar up to #126. The bottom team, which should stay there despite any bowl results, is now Idaho, though they're being somewhat punished for only playing 11 games. Them's the breaks, I say.

1	Florida State	13-0
2	Alabama	12-1
3	Ohio State	12-1
4	Oregon	12-1
5	Boise State	11-2
6	TCU	11-1
7	Marshall	12-1
8	Baylor	11-1
9	Georgia Tech	10-3
10	Missouri	10-3
11	Wisconsin	10-3
12	Mississippi State	10-2
13	Michigan State	10-2
14	Arizona	10-3
15	Ole Miss	9-3
16	Northern Illinois	11-2
17	UCLA	9-3
18	Georgia	9-3
19	Colorado State	10-2
20	Clemson	9-3
21	Kansas State	9-3
22	Nebraska	9-3
23	Arizona State	9-3
24	Auburn	8-4
25	Louisville	9-3
26	LSU	8-4
27	Utah State	9-4
28	Utah	8-4
29	Cincinnati	9-3
30	UCF	9-3
31	USC	8-4
32	Air Force	9-3
33	Minnesota	8-4
34	Duke	9-3
35	Memphis	9-3
36	Oklahoma	8-4
37	Louisiana Tech	8-5
38	Washington	8-5
39	Toledo	8-4
40	Georgia Southern	9-3
41	BYU	8-4
42	Texas A&M	7-5
43	Louisiana-Lafayette	8-4
44	Maryland	7-5
45	North Carolina State	7-5
46	Notre Dame	7-5
47	Stanford	7-5
48	East Carolina	8-4
49	West Virginia	7-5
50	Boston College	7-5
51	Rutgers	7-5
52	Iowa	7-5
53	Western Michigan	8-4
54	Tennessee	6-6
55	Western Kentucky	7-5
56	Arkansas	6-6
57	North Carolina	6-6
58	Nevada	7-5
59	Miami (FL)	6-6
60	Florida	6-5
61	Illinois	6-6
62	Rice	7-5
63	Virginia Tech	6-6
64	South Carolina	6-6
65	UTEP	7-5
66	Central Michigan	7-5
67	Arkansas State	7-5
68	Texas	6-6
69	Houston	7-5
70	Navy	6-5
71	Oklahoma State	6-6
72	Bowling Green	7-6
73	Pittsburgh	6-6
74	Penn State	6-6
75	Appalachian State	7-5
76	Texas State	7-5
77	Virginia	5-7
78	Middle Tennessee	6-6
79	San Diego State	6-5
80	Fresno State	6-7
81	Old Dominion	6-6
82	UAB	6-6
83	Northwestern	5-7
84	Kentucky	5-7
85	Michigan	5-7
86	California	5-7
87	Temple	6-6
88	South Alabama	6-6
89	Ohio	6-6
90	Oregon State	5-7
91	Ball State	5-7
92	Indiana	4-8
93	Texas Tech	4-8
94	Wyoming	4-8
95	Buffalo	5-6
96	South Florida	4-8
97	New Mexico	4-8
98	Florida International	4-8
99	Akron	5-7
100	Syracuse	3-9
101	Army	4-7
102	Purdue	3-9
103	Washington State	3-9
104	UTSA	4-8
105	Hawaii	4-9
106	Vanderbilt	3-9
107	Southern Miss	3-9
108	Louisiana-Monroe	4-8
109	Kansas	3-9
110	Tulane	3-9
111	Wake Forest	3-9
112	San Jose State	3-7
113	North Texas	4-8
114	Iowa State	2-10
115	Florida Atlantic	3-9
116	Colorado	2-10
117	Troy	3-9
118	Eastern Michigan	2-10
119	UNLV	2-11
120	Connecticut	2-10
121	Massachusetts	3-9
122	Miami (OH)	2-10
123	Kent State	2-9
124	Tulsa	2-10
125	New Mexico State	2-10
126	SMU	1-11
127	Georgia State	1-11
128	Idaho	1-10

2014 History and #1s

Week 1 Everybody who was 1-0

Week 2 LSU
Week 3 Oklahoma
Week 4 North Carolina State
Week 5 Nebraska
Week 6 Auburn
Week 7 Mississippi State
Week 8 Florida State
Week 9 Mississippi State
Week 10 Mississippi State
Week 11 Mississippi State
Week 12 Florida State
Week 13 Florida State
Week 14 Florida State

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 14, Thursday

New England over Green Bay

When I was catching up on my podcasts this week, and listening to the Tuesday episode of Pardon The Interruption, I heard one of the guys mention that Miami was 7-5. I thought to myself that they were actually 6-6, and that would be corrected at the end of the show, as is often done. I didn't think any more of it that day, because I give podcasts only about half my attention while I'm working.

Then, Thursday night, the Bears played and lost. After I ran the numbers, I saw they were 6-7, but had read a story about them falling to 5-8, and being eliminated from the division. Suddenly the Miami mention came back to me, and I feared the worst - bad data.

Luckily, I guess, I found there was only one error, at least in terms of wins and losses. I mistakenly marked Miami's 27-14 win over Chicago backwards, causing all sorts of invalid numbers. The NFC was too strong, and the AFC was too weak. New England should not have been as highly likely to win their division or make the playoffs, even though they're still far and away the favorites.

To save myself from this happening again, my software now generates the current standings, which I can compare to the official standings and ensure a match before posting my numbers..

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	80.866	92.320	83.683	48.821	28.242	15.862
GB	9-3	0.682	70.207	94.653	81.907	49.169	28.504	15.619
BAL	7-5	0.660	17.843	32.500	18.644	9.641	5.084	2.709
IND	8-4	0.658	94.816	95.185	61.281	32.897	17.449	9.267
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.289	73.332	53.599	29.568	15.860	8.267
PHI	9-3	0.646	84.421	91.063	71.556	38.912	20.527	10.442
MIA	7-5	0.640	12.760	39.642	23.515	11.883	6.106	3.116
BUF	7-5	0.626	6.374	21.800	12.151	5.940	2.969	1.478
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.248	97.410	84.057	42.366	19.872	9.693
KC	7-5	0.616	2.365	44.824	23.080	10.901	5.229	2.535
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.184	14.458	6.852	3.047	1.377	0.623
DAL	9-4	0.579	15.579	62.724	35.742	15.991	7.191	3.155
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.913	89.835	66.664	30.529	13.464	5.899
SD	8-4	0.563	7.387	49.272	24.814	10.508	4.464	1.929
DET	8-4	0.561	29.793	71.900	43.543	18.716	8.120	3.417
PIT	7-5	0.540	15.164	28.953	14.312	5.619	2.236	0.915
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	59.074	71.183	42.176	16.371	6.217	2.480
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.919	12.454	5.433	2.006	0.755	0.292
SF	7-5	0.512	2.788	16.303	7.504	2.832	1.105	0.412
NO	5-7	0.509	55.607	55.607	22.645	8.420	3.164	1.174
ATL	5-7	0.485	42.603	42.603	16.363	5.759	2.039	0.712
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.169	0.058	0.018	0.006	0.002
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.020	0.006	0.002	0.001	0.000
NYG	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
CHI	5-8	0.330	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.790	1.790	0.413	0.085	0.017	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-10	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]

eBay Wins #146

Today I've got a half dozen 1991 Leafs (Leaves? No, I checked. Pluralizing proper nouns doesn't work that way), picked up for a penny each on eBay.

1991 Leaf
#306 Scott Fletcher
#410 Roger McDowell
#414 Norm Charlton
#416 Chris Nabholz
#424 Dave Rohde
#431 Jamie Quirk

I always like to look up information on the more obscure Cardinals among my somewhat random eBay wins, and Jamie Quirk played just 48 games for the Cardinals, in 1983. He had an 18-year career, but only played 984 games. Over his career, he played every position but Center Field and Pitcher at least once. It seems like you don't see a lot of that anymore, backup catchers playing fielding positions. Occasionally a big hitting starter like Yadier Molina or Buster Posey will get a "day off" - at least for their knees - at first base, or a promising hitter will be outright moved for a new promising catcher, like Joe Torre or Todd Zeile's move to Third Base.

I now have 121 unique cards from the 1991 Leaf set. I already had a copy of Chris Nabholz's card, but the other 5 were new. With only 528 cards in the set, I'm over 22.9% of the way to completion.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought	3223
Total Spent	$50.73
Per Card	1.574 cents
Change	-0.001 cents

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Final

New England over Green Bay

Miami's narrow win over New York didn't change much, but of course bumped up Miami's playoff odds. New England is still the AFC East favorite by a large margin, but Miami has an 11.5% shot at a wildcard now.

I also played around with some scenarios today, and barring any ties, the Rams can actually win the NFC West if there is a 4-way tie at 9-7. It's only 0.01% likely to happen as listed below, but I'll be rooting for it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	89.127	95.444	87.784	51.588	29.924	16.796
GB	9-3	0.682	71.356	95.804	83.153	50.067	29.042	15.935
BAL	7-5	0.660	18.908	37.357	21.492	11.086	5.863	3.122
IND	8-4	0.658	94.940	95.487	62.702	33.670	17.894	9.491
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.270	76.027	55.970	30.884	16.563	8.642
PHI	9-3	0.646	87.431	92.446	73.183	39.840	21.012	10.703
BUF	7-5	0.626	9.086	26.208	14.619	7.130	3.572	1.777
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.249	97.477	83.669	42.487	19.930	9.717
KC	7-5	0.616	2.364	48.006	24.685	11.619	5.606	2.715
MIA	6-6	0.589	1.787	11.508	5.577	2.525	1.162	0.533
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.060	15.495	7.391	3.271	1.484	0.669
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.906	91.546	68.037	31.188	13.742	6.028
SD	8-4	0.563	7.387	54.495	27.231	11.507	4.901	2.116
DET	8-4	0.561	28.642	74.560	44.485	19.103	8.280	3.492
DAL	8-4	0.556	12.569	49.936	26.699	11.338	4.857	2.027
PIT	7-5	0.540	14.965	30.632	15.184	5.950	2.373	0.971
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	58.253	73.247	43.239	16.804	6.396	2.551
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.874	14.645	6.428	2.363	0.896	0.346
SF	7-5	0.512	2.813	18.216	8.400	3.162	1.233	0.461
NO	5-7	0.509	54.259	54.260	22.238	8.252	3.105	1.154
ATL	5-7	0.485	43.812	43.812	16.941	5.952	2.111	0.739
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.255	0.089	0.027	0.009	0.003
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.002	1.169	0.344	0.090	0.026	0.007
NYG	3-9	0.383	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.928	1.928	0.449	0.092	0.019	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-10	0.256	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 13, Sunday

New England over Green Bay

Both New England and Arizona lost, and now every team will have at least 3 losses this year. Both teams have fallen back in their playoff chances as well, with both having previously been over 99% likely to make it. They're still in good position, but Arizona is not in the runaway position they once were.

The Rams won a huge shutout, which inflated their strength quite a bit. They're still just barely alive in the playoff hunt.

I mentioned that Minnesota was not actually eliminated from their division on Thursday despite my numbers, because a future Green Bay-Detroit tie could have kept them alive. But Green Bay's win yesterday actually eliminates them from the division. Unfortunately, I now have Tampa Bay allegedly eliminated, but in the same situation. If enough games go the right way, a tie between Atlanta and New Orleans in week 16 could keep Tampa alive. In short, next year's simulations will include ties.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
NE	9-3	0.686	89.309	95.645	87.893	51.661	29.966	16.817
GB	9-3	0.682	71.364	95.809	83.162	50.071	29.051	15.937
BAL	7-5	0.660	19.101	37.908	21.810	11.255	5.952	3.169
IND	8-4	0.658	94.940	95.504	62.755	33.701	17.906	9.494
SEA	8-4	0.658	43.285	76.032	55.974	30.886	16.561	8.644
PHI	9-3	0.646	87.440	92.454	73.191	39.836	21.008	10.700
BUF	7-5	0.626	9.336	26.629	14.836	7.239	3.623	1.802
DEN	9-3	0.618	90.253	97.503	83.703	42.502	19.934	9.720
KC	7-5	0.616	2.364	48.337	24.832	11.685	5.637	2.730
HOU	6-6	0.583	5.060	15.896	7.581	3.354	1.522	0.689
MIA	5-6	0.581	1.354	8.728	4.151	1.844	0.832	0.374
ARI	9-3	0.578	53.895	91.545	68.032	31.192	13.743	6.030
SD	8-4	0.563	7.384	54.894	27.399	11.573	4.928	2.128
DET	8-4	0.561	28.634	74.566	44.482	19.102	8.282	3.494
DAL	8-4	0.556	12.560	49.923	26.691	11.333	4.852	2.026
PIT	7-5	0.540	14.930	30.848	15.281	5.986	2.391	0.978
CIN	8-3-1	0.529	58.106	73.337	43.281	16.818	6.404	2.553
CLE	7-5	0.516	7.863	14.771	6.479	2.382	0.903	0.349
SF	7-5	0.512	2.809	18.209	8.393	3.161	1.232	0.462
NO	5-7	0.509	54.266	54.266	22.247	8.260	3.108	1.156
ATL	5-7	0.485	43.808	43.808	16.936	5.947	2.109	0.737
STL	5-7	0.451	0.010	0.254	0.089	0.027	0.009	0.003
MIN	5-7	0.445	-	0.041	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.000
CHI	6-6	0.392	0.002	1.166	0.343	0.090	0.025	0.007
NYG	3-9	0.382	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-9	0.352	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	2-10	0.317	-	-	-	-	-	-
CAR	3-8-1	0.310	1.927	1.927	0.448	0.091	0.019	0.004
TEN	2-10	0.275	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	2-9	0.270	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	2-10	0.240	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	1-11	0.218	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Arizona (Week 11, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Oakland (Week 11, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Sunday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]