2013-12-31

Two Contests This Week

Play at the Plate is having a year-end contest for a 2014 Topps blaster, and a rack pack for those who shamelessly plug the context, like this. Enter by leaving comments on any of his posts, but here is the contest post. It ends sometime tomorrow so get commenting.

Second is the Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web IV, which I mentioned last week. Pick the Superbowl winner, loser, points scored, and number of turnovers.

And now, for no good reason, here's Steve Harvey again.


2013-12-30

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 17, Final

Seattle over Denver

The projection I've had for quite a few weeks now has held up, and Seattle and Denver are finally the top 2 teams in strength as well. I was rather disappointed that Pittsburgh didn't make the playoffs, partially because I just like seeing unlikely things happen.

Green Bay is the longest shot to win the Superbowl, but that's a little misleading. They've got a negative point differential on the year, which is how I derive team strength. However, in several games, they were without a pretty important individual, their star QB Aaron Rodgers. So, today's team should be better than what I show here, which is the average Green Bay team over the last 16 games.

Looking at all these playoff teams, I think I'll be mostly rooting for the Chiefs in the AFC, and the Broncos if they are eliminated. In the NFC, it'll be Green Bay followed by New Orleans.


TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA13-30.856+++69.59445.65530.937
DEN13-30.779+++64.29137.78717.325
CAR12-40.779+++61.93326.66514.851
SF12-40.770-+78.35834.39415.8728.640
KC11-50.738-+67.87432.69116.9066.851
CIN11-50.738++65.61836.29117.4777.084
NO11-50.717-+62.04418.5768.1283.871
NE12-40.695+++46.72120.5267.318
ARI10-60.616------
PHI10-60.608++37.95611.6042.9071.043
SD9-70.596-+34.38210.1463.9591.058
IND11-50.572++32.1269.8613.3440.830
DET7-90.537------
PIT8-80.518------
DAL8-80.512------
GB8-7-10.480++21.6423.8980.7730.194
STL7-90.466------
TEN7-90.462------
MIA8-80.458------
CHI8-80.446------
BAL8-80.429------
BUF6-100.400------
MIN5-10-10.350------
ATL4-120.335------
NYG7-90.311------
CLE4-120.303------
NYJ8-80.295------
TB4-120.288------
OAK4-120.263------
WAS3-130.253------
HOU2-140.210------
JAC4-120.174------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)
First to 30% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 17, Final)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Sunday]
[Week 16, Final]

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 18

Once again, with everyone at the top inactive, there were no large changes. The highest movement was Louisville going from #15 to #9, and Northern Illinois dropping from #9 to #11. Somewhat interestingly, the #111-#114 teams shuffled around due to strength of schedule changes.

1Florida State13-0
2Auburn12-1
3Michigan State12-1
4Ohio State12-1
5Stanford11-2
6Missouri11-2
7Alabama11-1
8Baylor11-1
9Louisville12-1
10Arizona State10-3
11Northern Illinois12-2
12South Carolina10-2
13Clemson10-2
14Fresno State11-2
15UCF11-1
16USC10-4
17Oklahoma State10-2
18Oklahoma10-2
19Oregon10-2
20Duke10-3
21UCLA9-3
22Notre Dame9-4
23Washington9-4
24East Carolina10-3
25LSU9-3
26Rice10-3
27Wisconsin9-3
28Marshall10-4
29Bowling Green10-4
30Miami (FL)9-4
31Ball State10-2
32Virginia Tech8-4
33Texas A&M8-4
34Georgia8-4
35Utah State9-5
36Brigham Young8-5
37Iowa8-4
38Minnesota8-5
39Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
40Texas8-4
41Houston8-4
42Kansas State8-5
43Nebraska8-4
44Navy8-4
45Pittsburgh7-6
46Boise State8-5
47North Carolina7-6
48Cincinnati9-4
49Arizona7-5
50San Diego State8-5
51Georgia Tech7-5
52Vanderbilt8-4
53Michigan7-6
54Ole Miss7-5
55Oregon State7-6
56North Texas8-4
57Western Kentucky8-4
58Toledo7-5
59Syracuse7-6
60Boston College7-5
61Penn State7-5
62Middle Tennessee8-4
63Buffalo8-5
64Texas Tech7-5
65Mississippi State6-6
66Tulane7-6
67UTSA7-5
68Colorado State8-6
69Maryland7-6
70UNLV7-5
71Washington State6-7
72Arkansas State7-5
73San Jose State6-6
74Ohio7-6
75Utah5-7
76South Alabama6-6
77Louisiana-Monroe6-6
78Florida Atlantic6-6
79Troy6-6
80Tennessee5-7
81Indiana5-7
82Northwestern5-7
83Rutgers6-7
84Central Michigan6-6
85Texas State6-6
86Akron5-7
87Colorado4-8
88Florida4-8
89Southern Methodist5-7
90TCU4-8
91Wake Forest4-8
92Illinois4-8
93Nevada4-8
94Wyoming5-7
95West Virginia4-8
96Kent State4-8
97Arkansas3-9
98North Carolina State3-9
99Iowa State3-9
100Tulsa3-9
101Kansas3-9
102Memphis3-9
103Connecticut3-9
104Virginia2-10
105New Mexico3-9
106Louisiana Tech4-8
107Kentucky2-10
108South Florida2-10
109Army3-9
110UAB2-10
111New Mexico State2-10
112California1-11
113Eastern Michigan2-10
114Temple2-10
115Air Force2-10
116Purdue1-11
117UTEP2-10
118Hawaii1-11
119Idaho1-11
120Massachusetts1-11
121Western Michigan1-11
122Florida International1-11
123Southern Miss1-11
124Miami (OH)0-12


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16
Week 17

2013-12-28

eBay Wins #94

Once again it's a 1-card-1-penny post. This time I picked up Andrew Bailey's base card from 2012 Archives.

2012 Topps Archives #196 Andrew Bailey
I don't know him very well, and the fact that he missed the 2013 playoffs means I didn't get to see him this year in one of my few chances to see AL teams.

I may or may not eventually try to complete this set, but at least I've now crossed the 1% mark at 3 out of 241 cards. The other two came courtesy of Cards on Cards' College Bowl contest last year.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2511
Total Spent$43.94
Per Card1.75 cents

2013-12-26

Zistle Trade #6

I made another small Zistle trade, for 4 Cardinals and a Heritage SP. I'm finding that as long as I put cards in my want list, and mark duplicates in my trade list, Zistle makes it fairly easy to put together trades that cherry pick my wants from my trading partner's trade list, and vice versa.

2011 Topps Update - Diamond Duos #DD-12 Matt Holliday/Colby Rasmus
2012 Topps  - Walmart Blue Border #291 David Freese
2013 Topps - Chasing History #CH-74  Stan Musial
2013 Topps - Chasing History #87 Lance Lynn

2011 Topps Heritage
#427 Will Rhymes SP
This card leaves me with about 19 High Number SPs to go for 2011 Heritage, and 76 total cards if I count all the variations available. As I get closer I'll figure out how close I really am to a "complete" 2011 Heritage set.

2013-12-24

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over Denver

San Francisco grabbed a playoff spot with their win last night, so the final NFC slot is down to New Orleans and Arizona. If they both win or both lose, New Orleans is in on the tiebreaker. New Orleans could be their division champ as well with a Carolina loss. Seattle still hasn't clinched their division, but is the favorite to win the Superbowl. If they do win the division, with either a win or a San Francisco loss, they'll definitely have a first round bye, and their chances should jump a bit. As I mentioned yesterday, Chicago plays Green Bay, and Dallas plays Philadelphia, with the winners getting division titles and the losers out of the playoffs.

In the AFC, 5 spots are spoken for - though not necessarily their seeding - leaving 4 teams to fight it out for 1 spot. Those 4 are Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. San Diego is probably in better position than my rankings indicate, because the Chiefs have nothing but pride to play for, and a game without injuries in worth way more than pride when it comes to the playoff game the following week. I'll be rooting for things to go Pittsburgh's way, meaning losses by the other 3 teams.

By the time the late games kick off, Miami or Baltimore could already own the spot, or it could be San Diego's to win, or, in the event Miami and Baltimore both win, San Diego could determine who gets in but not have any chance themselves, thanks to the jumble of teams currently at 8-7. If Miami and Baltimore win, but San Diego loses, Baltimore is in. But, a San Diego win makes it a 3-way tiebreaker and Miami wins. There would thus be much meaning in the KC-SD game, despite neither team really having anything to gain or lose in it.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA12-30.82488.224+98.09263.96839.66125.812
CAR11-40.77589.558+97.40461.22229.52817.096
SF11-40.76211.776+78.83336.36518.28910.273
DEN12-30.751+++61.91535.97016.558
KC11-40.742-+63.43233.08018.7138.400
CIN10-50.710++71.13838.33518.7217.671
NO10-50.67510.44293.43863.81222.7638.4933.863
NE11-40.672++87.34442.38318.6426.868
ARI10-50.622-6.5623.7180.9640.3320.132
PHI9-60.60458.90858.90823.0677.3382.1040.802
SD8-70.591-7.0552.8740.9520.3640.107
IND10-50.572++44.89015.9745.4881.525
DET7-80.538------
DAL8-70.51541.09241.09211.8092.8310.6520.197
STL7-80.504------
PIT7-80.492-9.3062.9500.7360.2160.047
MIA8-70.489-58.84118.8564.6571.3520.294
GB7-7-10.47151.71251.71211.8852.3480.5090.136
BAL8-70.466-24.7988.5171.9700.5340.108
CHI8-70.45448.28848.28811.3812.2010.4310.110
TEN6-90.451------
BUF6-90.427------
MIN4-10-10.353------
ATL4-110.339------
TB4-110.333------
CLE4-110.332------
OAK4-110.296------
NYG6-90.290------
WAS3-120.282------
NYJ7-80.277------
HOU2-130.229------
JAC4-110.173------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Sunday]

2013-12-23

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 16, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Seattle is still on top, though a San Francisco win tonight could put that in jeopardy next week. A San Francisco loss would clinch the NFC West for them. The Lions were eliminated by their loss, despite Green Bay and Chicago's losses, since they'll play each other this week and the winner will have 9 wins, or 8 wins and a tie.

On the AFC side, Denver already has a first round bye, and is the favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. Pittsburgh stayed alive in the playoff race by virtue of losses by Miami and Baltimore, and wins by themselves and the Jets. 3 out of 4 of those were wins by underdogs in my ratings, so Pittsburgh's chances increased over 30-fold, from 0.3% to 9.3%

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA12-30.82490.327+98.43265.32740.84926.583
CAR11-40.77588.891+97.28062.35430.29317.537
DEN12-30.751+++61.91435.96316.668
SF10-40.7489.67394.42372.48331.73415.4538.388
KC11-40.742-+63.43233.08518.7198.462
CIN10-50.710++71.13138.32818.7207.728
NO10-50.67511.10994.17365.11323.5818.9074.051
NE11-40.672++87.34342.38818.6436.930
ARI10-50.622-11.4046.5941.7930.6360.254
PHI9-60.60458.90558.90523.2117.4352.1680.827
SD8-70.591-7.0552.8730.9520.3630.108
IND10-50.572++44.89615.9745.4901.539
DET7-80.538------
DAL8-70.51541.09541.09512.2202.9430.6880.208
STL7-80.504------
PIT7-80.492-9.2982.9460.7340.2160.048
MIA8-70.489-58.84818.8624.6561.3520.297
GB7-7-10.47151.71251.71212.7722.5260.5500.146
BAL8-70.466-24.7988.5181.9690.5340.109
CHI8-70.45448.28848.28811.8952.3050.4570.116
TEN6-90.451------
BUF6-90.427------
ATL4-100.355------
MIN4-10-10.353------
TB4-110.333------
CLE4-110.332------
OAK4-110.296------
NYG6-90.290------
WAS3-120.282------
NYJ7-80.277------
HOU2-130.229------
JAC4-110.173------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]

2013-12-22

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 17

This week had only 4 bowls, and 4 lower-division finals and semi-finals, but there were quite a few teams that moved one or two spots. However, they were all lower than #13 (previously #14) Fresno State, so nothing earth-shattering at the top.

1Florida State13-0
2Auburn12-1
3Michigan State12-1
4Ohio State12-1
5Stanford11-2
6Missouri11-2
7Alabama11-1
8Baylor11-1
9Northern Illinois12-1
10Arizona State10-3
11South Carolina10-2
12UCF11-1
13Fresno State11-2
14Clemson10-2
15Louisville11-1
16Oklahoma State10-2
17USC10-4
18Oklahoma10-2
19Oregon10-2
20Duke10-3
21UCLA9-3
22LSU9-3
23Rice10-3
24Bowling Green10-3
25Wisconsin9-3
26Ball State10-2
27Miami (FL)9-3
28Texas A&M8-4
29Georgia8-4
30Virginia Tech8-4
31Notre Dame8-4
32East Carolina9-3
33Brigham Young8-4
34Minnesota8-4
35Washington8-4
36Iowa8-4
37Houston8-4
38Louisiana-Lafayette9-4
39Texas8-4
40Nebraska8-4
41Marshall9-4
42Cincinnati9-3
43Boise State8-4
44Navy8-4
45Arizona7-5
46Michigan7-5
47San Diego State8-5
48Vanderbilt8-4
49Ole Miss7-5
50North Texas8-4
51Utah State8-5
52Georgia Tech7-5
53Western Kentucky8-4
54Toledo7-5
55Kansas State7-5
56Penn State7-5
57Buffalo8-5
58Boston College7-5
59Middle Tennessee8-4
60Mississippi State6-6
61Texas Tech7-5
62UTSA7-5
62Tulane7-6
64North Carolina6-6
65Colorado State8-6
66Maryland7-5
67Pittsburgh6-6
68UNLV7-5
69Arkansas State7-5
70Oregon State6-6
71Washington State6-7
72Ohio7-5
73San Jose State6-6
74Syracuse6-6
75South Alabama6-6
76Utah5-7
77Louisiana-Monroe6-6
78Troy6-6
79Florida Atlantic6-6
80Tennessee5-7
81Indiana5-7
82Rutgers6-6
83Northwestern5-7
84Central Michigan6-6
85Texas State6-6
86Akron5-7
87Colorado4-8
88Florida4-8
89Southern Methodist5-7
90TCU4-8
91Illinois4-8
92Wake Forest4-8
93Nevada4-8
94Wyoming5-7
95Kent State4-8
96West Virginia4-8
97Arkansas3-9
98North Carolina State3-9
99Iowa State3-9
100Tulsa3-9
101Kansas3-9
102Memphis3-9
103Connecticut3-9
104Virginia2-10
105Louisiana Tech4-8
106New Mexico3-9
107Kentucky2-10
108South Florida2-10
109Army3-9
110UAB2-10
111Eastern Michigan2-10
112New Mexico State2-10
113Temple2-10
114California1-11
115Air Force2-10
116Purdue1-11
117UTEP2-10
118Hawaii1-11
119Idaho1-11
120Massachusetts1-11
121Western Michigan1-11
122Florida International1-11
123Southern Miss1-11
124Miami (OH)0-12


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
Week 16

Happy Birthday Steve Garvey

Steve Garvey turns 65 today, and GCRL is giving away a 1952 Topps card to get as many birthday wishes out there as he can. I've only got one Steve Garvey card in my collection, a nice sharp 1971.

2010 Topps Update Cards Your Mom Threw Out
#CMT136 Steve Garvey
Much like George Washington, I cannot tell a lie. My lone Garvey is actually from 2010's reprint set Cards Your Mom Threw Out. It's not even the original back variation.

Happy Birthday, Steve. And thanks for the contest, GCRL.

2013-12-21

eBay Wins #93

How about some sepia? These cards are from 1991 Homers Cookies, which may or may not be an actual brand of cookies. I've never heard of them, and all references to Homers (or Homer's) cookies online seem to be to these cards, but no cookies.

An eBay seller had a lot of 10 for each of these cards, each of which I won for 9 cents, for a total of 18 cents for 20 cards.

1991 Homers Cookies
#7 Roberto Clemente
1991 Homers Cookies
#9 Lou Gehrig
These appear to be unlicensed, since the logos are mostly obscured. I've added the 9 extra copies to my trade pile, so hopefully a few people either reading the blog or perusing my Zistle trade list will want a copy.

eBay Bargain Tracker
Total Cards Bought2510
Total Spent$43.93
Per Card1.75 cents

2013-12-19

Three Upcoming Contests

And only one is giving me a bonus for promoting it here. For the others I just want you in so I can have the joy of beating more people.

First, there's Cards on Cards' College Bowl Confidence Pick 'em Contest. I finished 2nd last year and showed you every single card I won in a ridiculous number of posts. I'm pretty sure it was 18. Hurry and get your picks in before kickoff of the first bowl on Saturday.

Next is a just a reminder that the 4th Annual Almost the Easiest Super Bowl Contest on the Web at Collector's Crack will be opening after the NFL regular season wraps up next Sunday.

Finally, we have the 1952 Topps Contest - aka, the Steve Garvey Contest - over at Garvey Cey Russell Lopes. He'd like to see plenty of Steve Garvey cards posted on his 65th birthday, Sunday, December 22, and is giving away a 1952 Topps card to one lucky blogger who posts one that day. Since I only have 1 in my collection, I won't spoil the surprise here, and instead I'll give you Steve Harvey for now.

Not Steve Garvey

2013-12-17

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Final

Seattle over Denver

Last night, when Baltimore beat Detroit, 3 teams were directly impacted. First, Baltimore solidified its hold on the AFC North. Detroit fell a full game behind Chicago in the NFC North, and a half game behind Green Bay. As discussed yesterday, only 1 NFC North team will make the playoffs. The other casualty of last night's game was the New York Jets, who are now out of the playoffs in all tiebreaker scenarios. I discovered they can have one more key effect, however.

Pittsburgh is definitely on the outside looking in with regard to the playoff race. They've lost 8 games, and I have them with under a 0.3% chance of making a wildcard spot. Since I have a good friend who is a fan, I decided to figure out for him what scenario can have them make the playoffs.

First, Kansas City and Denver are both AFC West teams and both have clinched the playoffs, so one wildcard slot is gone. Pittsburgh can't catch Cincinnati or New England (or Indianapolis for that matter) so those teams must win their divisions to leave a wildcard slot open. Baltimore and Miami already have 8 wins each, so they'll have to lose both upcoming games, while Pittsburgh wins both, to force a 3-way tie at 8-8. Since Pittsburgh would have a better AFC North record than Baltimore, Baltimore would be eliminated in any scenario in which they tied Pittsburgh. San Diego must lose at least 1 game, but 2 losses would drop them to 7-9 and out of any tiebreaker. Miami beat both Pittsburgh and San Diego, though, so Pittsburgh loses both the 2-way and 3-way tie.

At first I couldn't figure out how Pittsburgh could possibly make it given Miami's tiebreakers, but then I realized the Jets could be another 8-8 team. If that happens, they would own the division record tiebreaker over Miami, so the wildcard tiebreaker would be between Pittsburgh, the Jets, and possibly San Diego, which Pittsburgh wins due to conference record in either case. So, in short, here's what Pittsburgh needs:

  • 2 Miami losses (1 will be against the Jets)
  • 2 Baltimore losses
  • 1 or 2 San Diego losses
  • 2 Jets wins (1 will be against Miami)
  • And, of course, 2 wins

That's only 7 games that must go their way, and then 1 out of 2 other games. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, it could all be over by kickoff Sunday, since they'll play late and Miami at Buffalo and Cleveland at the Jets will be early.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA12-20.82197.625+99.54663.86441.47727.669
CAR10-40.76153.24997.36186.18750.07524.39214.272
KC11-30.75814.235+75.33745.93228.96314.059
SF10-40.7482.37598.67072.99433.32416.6069.440
DEN11-30.71985.765+95.42154.82631.41113.707
NO10-40.67846.75199.10181.31136.10713.4066.495
CIN9-50.66278.22287.09463.58033.26214.9335.583
NE10-40.61193.91698.27779.20835.63414.1314.593
ARI9-50.605-4.8672.8510.7780.2860.116
SD7-70.564-0.6610.2770.0990.0360.010
BAL8-60.54421.77840.91218.5106.8452.3650.637
DET7-70.54323.99923.9997.2722.1260.5540.194
IND9-50.538++37.61113.9574.9021.301
MIA8-60.5316.08472.76029.9569.4173.2510.844
PHI8-60.52858.14458.14417.0644.8781.1930.402
CHI8-60.52546.89646.89613.8223.9900.9490.317
DAL7-70.51441.85641.85611.4342.9720.7320.237
STL6-80.483------
GB7-6-10.48329.10529.1057.5181.8880.4050.121
PIT6-80.478-0.2960.1010.0270.0080.002
TEN5-90.444------
MIN4-9-10.398------
BUF5-90.393------
ATL4-100.355------
TB4-100.355------
CLE4-100.354------
OAK4-100.321------
NYG5-90.287------
WAS3-110.286------
HOU2-120.266------
NYJ6-80.263------
JAC4-100.188------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]

2013-12-16

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Kansas City was the only other team to clinch a playoff spot this week, so 8 are still up for grabs, with 5 of those in the NFC. Denver remained the AFC favorite because both New England and Cincinnati lost, and Denver holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. We could see Kansas City and Denver in the first round, since one will be a division winner, and one will be a wildcard.

Tennessee, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, and Jacksonville were eliminated this week. I'm keeping the full grid in place for now because I think it's interesting that the Jets are the second worst team in the league, but are still clinging onto playoff hopes at 6-8.

No NFC teams were eliminated this week, even from division races. It would appear that Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit all have playoff odds equal to their Division Championship odds, which means only one of them will make the playoffs this year, the NFC North champion. Dallas and Philadelphia will also each have to win the NFC East to make the playoffs. The corollary to those statements is that the wildcards will come from the NFC South and/or the NFC West. Seattle, San Francisco, or Arizona could be the team(s) from the West, and New Orleans and Carolina are still alive in the South. Therefore, only 1 of those 5 teams will miss the playoffs, and it won't be Seattle. My money's on Arizona, but we'll see.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA12-20.82197.624+99.54063.86241.49127.679
CAR10-40.76253.25897.50886.13749.98724.35614.256
KC11-30.75814.235+75.01445.63128.75913.960
SF10-40.7492.37698.67172.68433.17716.5419.402
DEN11-30.71985.765+95.38954.87431.38813.700
NO10-40.67846.74299.10281.07535.97313.3556.466
CIN9-50.66287.43991.89166.11734.96215.6725.855
NE10-40.61193.98699.17279.92235.72014.1624.601
ARI9-50.605-4.7182.7400.7500.2750.112
SD7-70.564-1.3880.6000.2100.0780.022
DET7-60.54647.27847.27814.5604.3651.1270.397
BAL7-60.53912.56126.23511.3054.0421.3980.370
IND9-50.538++37.74413.9234.8921.296
MIA8-60.5316.01480.72733.71610.5903.6380.942
PHI8-60.52858.14558.14517.0394.8481.1890.401
CHI8-60.52531.82431.8249.3972.7210.6450.215
DAL7-70.51441.85541.85511.4192.9550.7300.237
STL6-80.483------
GB7-6-10.48320.89920.8995.4101.3620.2900.087
PIT6-80.478-0.5050.1790.0460.0140.003
TEN5-90.444------
MIN4-9-10.397------
BUF5-90.393------
ATL4-100.355------
TB4-100.355------
CLE4-100.354------
OAK4-100.321------
NYG5-90.286------
WAS3-110.286------
HOU2-120.266------
NYJ6-80.263-0.0820.0140.0020.0000.000
JAC4-100.188------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

2013-12-15

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 16

Obviously there was no movement at the top, with the only FBS game pitting my #56 against #109 in the Army-Navy game. This is one of the least active weeks in NCAA football, with only 10 total games all the way down to Division III. So, just for fun, here are all of the changes this week, from top to bottom.

The top 41 remained in position, with scoring differences too small to place any team ahead or behind its adjacent teams.
Navy moved up from #56 to #42, because of their win.
Utah State moved from #49 to #51, behind Toledo, because Toledo played Navy.
South Alabama jumped ahead of Utah, to #74, again because South Alabama played Navy.
Troy swapped with Tennessee, at #78.
Indiana swapped with Rutgers, at #81.

The last 2 swaps didn't have immediately clear reasons. There were some common opponents, and opponents of opponents, etc., as that's how the algorithm works.

Army, interestingly, stayed right at #109.

As the bowls happen, we'll see teams slightly more toward the top start to shuffle around, possibly culminating in a 1-2 swap after the BCS Championship.

1Florida State13-0
2Auburn12-1
3Michigan State12-1
4Ohio State12-1
5Stanford11-2
6Missouri11-2
7Alabama11-1
8Baylor11-1
9Northern Illinois12-1
10Arizona State10-3
11South Carolina10-2
12UCF11-1
13Clemson10-2
14Fresno State11-1
15Louisville11-1
16Oklahoma State10-2
17Oklahoma10-2
18Oregon10-2
19Duke10-3
20UCLA9-3
21LSU9-3
22Rice10-3
23USC9-4
24Bowling Green10-3
25Wisconsin9-3
26Ball State10-2
27Miami (FL)9-3
28Texas A&M8-4
29Georgia8-4
30Virginia Tech8-4
31Notre Dame8-4
32East Carolina9-3
33Brigham Young8-4
34Washington8-4
35Minnesota8-4
36Iowa8-4
37Houston8-4
38Texas8-4
39Nebraska8-4
40Marshall9-4
41Cincinnati9-3
42Navy8-4
43Arizona7-5
44Boise State8-4
45Michigan7-5
46Vanderbilt8-4
47Ole Miss7-5
48North Texas8-4
49Georgia Tech7-5
50Toledo7-5
51Utah State8-5
52Western Kentucky8-4
53Louisiana-Lafayette8-4
54Buffalo8-4
55Kansas State7-5
56Penn State7-5
57Boston College7-5
58Middle Tennessee8-4
59Mississippi State6-6
60Texas Tech7-5
61Tulane7-5
62UTSA7-5
63North Carolina6-6
64Maryland7-5
65Pittsburgh6-6
66San Diego State7-5
67Washington State6-6
68UNLV7-5
69Arkansas State7-5
70Oregon State6-6
71Ohio7-5
72Syracuse6-6
73San Jose State6-6
74South Alabama6-6
75Utah5-7
76Louisiana-Monroe6-6
77Colorado State7-6
78Troy6-6
79Tennessee5-7
80Florida Atlantic6-6
81Indiana5-7
82Rutgers6-6
83Northwestern5-7
84Central Michigan6-6
85Akron5-7
86Texas State6-6
87Florida4-8
88Colorado4-8
89Southern Methodist5-7
90TCU4-8
91Illinois4-8
92Wake Forest4-8
93Kent State4-8
94West Virginia4-8
95Nevada4-8
96Wyoming5-7
97Arkansas3-9
98North Carolina State3-9
99Iowa State3-9
100Kansas3-9
101Tulsa3-9
102Memphis3-9
103Connecticut3-9
104Virginia2-10
105Louisiana Tech4-8
106Kentucky2-10
107New Mexico3-9
108South Florida2-10
109Army3-9
110UAB2-10
111Eastern Michigan2-10
112Temple2-10
113California1-11
114New Mexico State2-10
115Purdue1-11
116Air Force2-10
117UTEP2-10
118Idaho1-11
119Massachusetts1-11
120Hawaii1-11
121Western Michigan1-11
122Florida International1-11
123Southern Miss1-11
124Miami (OH)0-12


2013 History
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15

2013-12-13

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Thursday

Seattle over Denver

Denver lost and did significant damage to their chances of being division winners, but are still favored to win the AFC and play in the Superbowl, where Peyton Manning may have a rough time in the cold.

San Diego nearly tripled their playoff chances to 5.9%, since they won a game they shouldn't have.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA11-20.77895.334+98.84959.05736.23022.267
CAR9-40.74420.01995.38873.70639.88420.93111.941
KC10-30.73013.58199.98176.01743.22825.19812.551
DEN11-30.71986.419+94.81455.15031.52315.238
SF9-40.7154.66695.64766.46229.87914.8737.945
NO10-30.69479.98199.65392.13849.28321.31010.863
CIN9-40.67995.69798.63878.66141.50920.3478.913
NE10-30.61797.79099.64282.63137.66715.4015.741
ARI8-50.603-7.0973.9621.2890.4960.204
SD7-70.564-5.9022.3350.9320.3390.110
PHI8-50.56365.19067.06624.3798.3962.6050.974
DET7-60.54661.34961.38719.3016.0961.8770.671
BAL7-60.5394.30338.46115.1475.2471.8350.555
MIA7-60.5222.21055.77721.1367.0122.3330.674
DAL7-60.51634.81035.01610.3453.0270.8480.280
CHI7-60.51324.04424.1157.0482.0880.5720.188
IND8-50.494++28.8939.1653.0030.802
GB6-6-10.48114.60714.6303.8100.9990.2570.077
STL5-80.461------
PIT5-80.457-0.3740.1130.0340.0090.002
TEN5-80.448-0.3540.1020.0310.0080.002
TB4-90.394------
BUF4-90.380-0.0150.0040.0010.0000.000
MIN3-9-10.366------
CLE4-90.363-0.0050.0010.0000.0000.000
OAK4-90.357-0.0020.0000.0000.0000.000
ATL3-100.354------
NYG5-80.335------
HOU2-110.310------
WAS3-100.291------
NYJ6-70.281-0.8480.1460.0230.0040.000
JAC4-90.203-0.0010.0000.0000.0000.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]