Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 11, Sunday

Seattle over Kansas City

Denver managed to beat KC, and is actually now favored to win the AFC West. However, Kansas City's slightly higher strength has them positioned as slightly likelier to represent the AFC in the Superbowl. The rematch in Kansas City in 2 weeks could make the division race tip far in Denver's favor, or put it back to tossup status.

If you care about such things, you may notice I don't have Atlanta or Tampa Bay with any chance of winning their division. That's because they are officially eliminated. This is easy enough to see by trying to construct a scenario in which either team would win. First, New Orleans would need to finish 0-6 to go 8-8. However, two of those games would be against Carolina, pushing them to at least 8-3. They'd have to go 0-5 in the other games to also go 8-8. From there, it's all about the tiebreakers. All NFC South teams would be 1-1 against each other except Carolina having swept New Orleans. In a 3 way tie involving Carolina, New Orleans, and either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, Carolina's Head-to-head record would be 3-1, with New Orleans at 1-3, and Atlanta/Tampa Bay at 2-2, thus handing Carolina the division. The same logic applies to a 4-way tie, where Carolina would be 4-2 head-to-head, New Orleans would be 2-4, and both Tampa Bay and Atlanta would be 3-3. But, either team is still alive in the Wildcard race. Also, Jacksonville isn't ruled out of winning it all, since they have some small positive chance of making the Superbowl. It just didn't happen in 100,000,000 simulations.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	97.093	99.939	98.795	61.745	35.911	21.112
CAR	6-3	0.706	35.365	89.168	70.545	39.599	20.994	11.756
KC	9-1	0.705	44.260	99.975	78.876	46.693	27.683	14.393
NO	8-2	0.686	64.635	97.942	85.453	48.051	23.826	12.769
DEN	9-1	0.683	55.740	99.956	82.005	45.977	25.845	12.796
SF	6-4	0.643	2.784	64.598	40.384	17.112	7.838	3.833
CIN	7-4	0.641	90.535	94.530	65.389	33.908	16.329	7.337
NE	7-2	0.616	95.575	98.138	73.946	36.450	16.317	6.909
IND	7-3	0.563	98.091	98.549	61.327	25.736	10.180	3.783
GB	5-5	0.536	20.890	23.968	9.991	3.266	1.146	0.437
PHI	6-5	0.531	44.958	50.791	20.967	6.825	2.369	0.890
DAL	5-5	0.528	52.627	54.789	21.085	6.800	2.373	0.888
CHI	6-4	0.526	29.636	39.721	17.337	5.541	1.884	0.701
DET	6-4	0.522	49.472	59.120	26.608	8.556	2.856	1.052
SD	4-6	0.513	0.000	3.501	1.432	0.485	0.175	0.057
ARI	6-4	0.504	0.121	16.382	7.773	2.267	0.742	0.261
TEN	4-6	0.502	1.869	15.589	6.164	1.982	0.706	0.224
BAL	4-6	0.491	4.603	14.652	5.524	1.790	0.621	0.191
STL	4-6	0.479	0.002	0.847	0.373	0.099	0.031	0.010
MIA	5-5	0.474	3.171	36.238	13.971	4.214	1.385	0.408
PIT	4-6	0.441	3.174	10.804	3.480	0.970	0.296	0.079
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.488	3.923	1.239	0.318	0.093	0.024
CLE	4-6	0.402	1.689	8.982	2.698	0.661	0.179	0.043
WAS	3-7	0.394	0.196	0.237	0.065	0.014	0.003	0.001
TB	2-8	0.393	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	4-6	0.393	0.000	4.290	1.270	0.297	0.078	0.018
NYG	4-6	0.372	2.219	2.493	0.624	0.124	0.028	0.007
MIN	2-8	0.372	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
ATL	2-8	0.363	-	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
HOU	2-8	0.346	0.039	0.116	0.027	0.005	0.001	0.000
NYJ	5-5	0.338	0.766	10.756	2.651	0.513	0.113	0.022
JAC	1-9	0.226	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]