Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Final

Seattle over Denver

Last night, when Baltimore beat Detroit, 3 teams were directly impacted. First, Baltimore solidified its hold on the AFC North. Detroit fell a full game behind Chicago in the NFC North, and a half game behind Green Bay. As discussed yesterday, only 1 NFC North team will make the playoffs. The other casualty of last night's game was the New York Jets, who are now out of the playoffs in all tiebreaker scenarios. I discovered they can have one more key effect, however.

Pittsburgh is definitely on the outside looking in with regard to the playoff race. They've lost 8 games, and I have them with under a 0.3% chance of making a wildcard spot. Since I have a good friend who is a fan, I decided to figure out for him what scenario can have them make the playoffs.

First, Kansas City and Denver are both AFC West teams and both have clinched the playoffs, so one wildcard slot is gone. Pittsburgh can't catch Cincinnati or New England (or Indianapolis for that matter) so those teams must win their divisions to leave a wildcard slot open. Baltimore and Miami already have 8 wins each, so they'll have to lose both upcoming games, while Pittsburgh wins both, to force a 3-way tie at 8-8. Since Pittsburgh would have a better AFC North record than Baltimore, Baltimore would be eliminated in any scenario in which they tied Pittsburgh. San Diego must lose at least 1 game, but 2 losses would drop them to 7-9 and out of any tiebreaker. Miami beat both Pittsburgh and San Diego, though, so Pittsburgh loses both the 2-way and 3-way tie.

At first I couldn't figure out how Pittsburgh could possibly make it given Miami's tiebreakers, but then I realized the Jets could be another 8-8 team. If that happens, they would own the division record tiebreaker over Miami, so the wildcard tiebreaker would be between Pittsburgh, the Jets, and possibly San Diego, which Pittsburgh wins due to conference record in either case. So, in short, here's what Pittsburgh needs:

• 2 Miami losses (1 will be against the Jets)
• 2 Baltimore losses
• 1 or 2 San Diego losses
• 2 Jets wins (1 will be against Miami)
• And, of course, 2 wins

That's only 7 games that must go their way, and then 1 out of 2 other games. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, it could all be over by kickoff Sunday, since they'll play late and Miami at Buffalo and Cleveland at the Jets will be early.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-2	0.821	97.625	+	99.546	63.864	41.477	27.669
CAR	10-4	0.761	53.249	97.361	86.187	50.075	24.392	14.272
KC	11-3	0.758	14.235	+	75.337	45.932	28.963	14.059
SF	10-4	0.748	2.375	98.670	72.994	33.324	16.606	9.440
DEN	11-3	0.719	85.765	+	95.421	54.826	31.411	13.707
NO	10-4	0.678	46.751	99.101	81.311	36.107	13.406	6.495
CIN	9-5	0.662	78.222	87.094	63.580	33.262	14.933	5.583
NE	10-4	0.611	93.916	98.277	79.208	35.634	14.131	4.593
ARI	9-5	0.605	-	4.867	2.851	0.778	0.286	0.116
SD	7-7	0.564	-	0.661	0.277	0.099	0.036	0.010
BAL	8-6	0.544	21.778	40.912	18.510	6.845	2.365	0.637
DET	7-7	0.543	23.999	23.999	7.272	2.126	0.554	0.194
IND	9-5	0.538	+	+	37.611	13.957	4.902	1.301
MIA	8-6	0.531	6.084	72.760	29.956	9.417	3.251	0.844
PHI	8-6	0.528	58.144	58.144	17.064	4.878	1.193	0.402
CHI	8-6	0.525	46.896	46.896	13.822	3.990	0.949	0.317
DAL	7-7	0.514	41.856	41.856	11.434	2.972	0.732	0.237
STL	6-8	0.483	-	-	-	-	-	-
GB	7-6-1	0.483	29.105	29.105	7.518	1.888	0.405	0.121
PIT	6-8	0.478	-	0.296	0.101	0.027	0.008	0.002
TEN	5-9	0.444	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	4-9-1	0.398	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	5-9	0.393	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-10	0.355	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-10	0.354	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-10	0.321	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	5-9	0.287	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-11	0.286	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-12	0.266	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	6-8	0.263	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-10	0.188	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]