Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 12, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Denver has taken over the AFC favorite position from Kansas City, in a week where both teams lost. Kansas City's loss was a little bigger, and so dragged them down in strength. Denver has a bit easier schedule remaining, and most importantly, currently holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. Obviously that advantage could be evened back out next weekend, in Denver and Kansas City's rematch.

I'm still showing no chances of Atlanta making the playoffs, and it's still technically possible. I won't go through the exact scenario this time, but when I simulated a few thousand times that Atlanta would go 7-9 and all remaining AFC-NFC games would go the way of the AFC team, they did manage to make the playoffs a few times. It just didn't happen in my 500 million simulations today. Oakland is in fact eliminated from the AFC West, because Denver and/or Kansas City will be uncatchable by the 7-loss Raiders after this weekend.

It's looking like the NFC is going to be tougher than the AFC this year. For a point of comparison, one of my good friends is a Steelers fan, and his team shows an 18.8% chance of making the playoffs at 5-6, whereas my Rams have a 1.87% chance, also at 5-6. Tiebreaker advantages may account for some of that difference, but overall it's because it's just not going to take as good of a record to be the AFC wildcard team as it will in the NFC.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	10-1	0.730	96.642	99.867	98.805	60.309	33.468	19.897
CAR	8-3	0.730	39.532	97.254	80.317	46.557	25.723	15.289
NO	9-2	0.700	60.468	98.961	86.431	47.527	23.980	13.420
KC	9-2	0.689	38.237	99.920	77.877	44.666	25.726	12.540
DEN	9-2	0.683	61.759	99.897	85.572	49.144	27.963	13.445
SF	6-4	0.643	2.949	59.469	37.917	15.784	6.841	3.391
CIN	7-4	0.641	86.797	92.681	66.031	34.386	16.873	7.329
NE	8-3	0.612	97.807	99.146	82.028	41.083	18.530	7.506
ARI	7-4	0.567	0.403	29.078	15.950	5.388	1.935	0.809
GB	5-5-1	0.536	27.526	28.712	10.848	3.397	1.154	0.448
DAL	6-5	0.534	63.545	65.557	24.229	7.551	2.573	0.995
PHI	6-5	0.531	36.195	42.014	16.546	5.106	1.703	0.653
BAL	5-6	0.528	7.243	23.446	9.993	3.680	1.422	0.464
STL	5-6	0.522	0.007	1.872	0.928	0.273	0.087	0.033
SD	5-6	0.518	0.004	8.640	3.734	1.328	0.494	0.157
DET	6-5	0.517	46.344	48.741	18.168	5.404	1.732	0.641
TEN	5-6	0.510	6.956	26.311	10.751	3.732	1.367	0.426
IND	7-4	0.506	93.034	94.450	44.018	16.011	5.690	1.752
CHI	6-5	0.490	26.129	28.124	9.770	2.687	0.801	0.277
PIT	5-6	0.473	5.832	18.771	6.772	2.149	0.725	0.204
MIA	5-6	0.465	1.773	27.701	10.640	3.220	1.052	0.289
BUF	4-7	0.426	0.298	3.368	1.112	0.293	0.087	0.021
TB	3-8	0.399	-	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
WAS	3-7	0.394	0.130	0.170	0.045	0.009	0.002	0.001
OAK	4-7	0.384	-	1.126	0.334	0.082	0.021	0.004
MIN	2-8-1	0.371	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
CLE	4-7	0.369	0.128	1.912	0.543	0.120	0.030	0.006
NYG	4-7	0.366	0.129	0.179	0.044	0.008	0.002	0.000
ATL	2-9	0.351	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-9	0.325	0.006	0.008	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYJ	5-6	0.303	0.122	2.618	0.593	0.105	0.021	0.003
JAC	2-9	0.209	0.004	0.006	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]