2013-12-16

Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 15, Sunday

Seattle over Denver

Kansas City was the only other team to clinch a playoff spot this week, so 8 are still up for grabs, with 5 of those in the NFC. Denver remained the AFC favorite because both New England and Cincinnati lost, and Denver holds the tiebreaker over Kansas City. We could see Kansas City and Denver in the first round, since one will be a division winner, and one will be a wildcard.

Tennessee, Buffalo, Cleveland, Oakland, and Jacksonville were eliminated this week. I'm keeping the full grid in place for now because I think it's interesting that the Jets are the second worst team in the league, but are still clinging onto playoff hopes at 6-8.

No NFC teams were eliminated this week, even from division races. It would appear that Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit all have playoff odds equal to their Division Championship odds, which means only one of them will make the playoffs this year, the NFC North champion. Dallas and Philadelphia will also each have to win the NFC East to make the playoffs. The corollary to those statements is that the wildcards will come from the NFC South and/or the NFC West. Seattle, San Francisco, or Arizona could be the team(s) from the West, and New Orleans and Carolina are still alive in the South. Therefore, only 1 of those 5 teams will miss the playoffs, and it won't be Seattle. My money's on Arizona, but we'll see.

TEAMRecordStrengthDivPlyffWCQtrSemiChamp
SEA12-20.82197.624+99.54063.86241.49127.679
CAR10-40.76253.25897.50886.13749.98724.35614.256
KC11-30.75814.235+75.01445.63128.75913.960
SF10-40.7492.37698.67172.68433.17716.5419.402
DEN11-30.71985.765+95.38954.87431.38813.700
NO10-40.67846.74299.10281.07535.97313.3556.466
CIN9-50.66287.43991.89166.11734.96215.6725.855
NE10-40.61193.98699.17279.92235.72014.1624.601
ARI9-50.605-4.7182.7400.7500.2750.112
SD7-70.564-1.3880.6000.2100.0780.022
DET7-60.54647.27847.27814.5604.3651.1270.397
BAL7-60.53912.56126.23511.3054.0421.3980.370
IND9-50.538++37.74413.9234.8921.296
MIA8-60.5316.01480.72733.71610.5903.6380.942
PHI8-60.52858.14558.14517.0394.8481.1890.401
CHI8-60.52531.82431.8249.3972.7210.6450.215
DAL7-70.51441.85541.85511.4192.9550.7300.237
STL6-80.483------
GB7-6-10.48320.89920.8995.4101.3620.2900.087
PIT6-80.478-0.5050.1790.0460.0140.003
TEN5-90.444------
MIN4-9-10.397------
BUF5-90.393------
ATL4-100.355------
TB4-100.355------
CLE4-100.354------
OAK4-100.321------
NYG5-90.286------
WAS3-110.286------
HOU2-120.266------
NYJ6-80.263-0.0820.0140.0020.0000.000
JAC4-100.188------

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)
First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)
First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)
First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)
First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]

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