Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 3, Thursday

Kansas City over Seattle

The top two teams swapped positions, so now the seemingly real Chiefs are projected to beat the Seahawks. As I often state, though, this can be skewed by the fact that they've played a different number of games.

In the NFL, 64 of the games (25%) are inter-conference games, as last night's game was. Having just one game between simulations means I can view the gradient effect of the game. In this case, every NFC team's chances went up just a little bit. This is because, with one less possible win among all NFC teams, the wildcard slots will be slightly easier to attain. Later in the year this effect is usually superseded by the actual records of the teams involved, because if there are a few 10-win teams in a division, it doesn't matter how bad the conference is as a whole, those 10-win teams are both likely making the playoffs. But for now, with the AFC 6-1 against the NFC, the 1-1 Rams or even 0-2 Vikings and Buccaneers can dream of an 8-8 (maybe even 7-9) Wildcard season.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	3-0	0.575	50.500	74.294	59.354	33.414	18.805	10.552
SEA	2-0	0.561	58.383	76.415	61.657	34.544	19.239	10.297
DEN	2-0	0.544	28.834	56.954	40.819	21.298	11.197	5.934
MIA	2-0	0.536	39.825	60.693	45.098	23.410	11.941	6.241
NO	2-0	0.521	56.913	68.602	50.302	25.753	13.058	6.466
GB	1-1	0.518	26.267	42.985	29.157	14.781	7.450	3.667
CIN	1-1	0.517	47.431	52.784	33.041	16.253	7.938	3.994
OAK	1-1	0.517	11.565	29.210	18.471	9.075	4.501	2.263
HOU	2-0	0.515	49.892	60.632	41.886	20.639	10.056	5.035
NE	2-0	0.514	35.281	55.311	38.904	19.200	9.329	4.662
DET	1-1	0.511	25.659	41.583	27.714	13.836	6.862	3.328
DAL	1-1	0.507	45.118	51.890	33.360	16.465	8.093	3.899
CHI	2-0	0.507	42.186	60.180	43.406	21.571	10.608	5.107
TEN	1-1	0.502	20.117	31.427	19.212	9.179	4.368	2.134
ATL	1-1	0.502	21.931	38.108	24.156	11.808	5.765	2.748
ARI	1-1	0.502	15.544	36.110	22.901	11.163	5.478	2.609
SD	1-1	0.500	9.102	23.638	14.383	6.832	3.276	1.592
IND	1-1	0.500	24.005	33.135	20.187	9.600	4.548	2.213
BUF	1-1	0.498	12.769	26.398	16.408	7.798	3.675	1.781
NYJ	1-1	0.494	12.125	25.445	15.663	7.370	3.437	1.649
STL	1-1	0.493	16.520	34.312	21.518	10.299	4.966	2.322
TB	0-2	0.491	9.672	19.041	11.155	5.325	2.543	1.185
PHI	1-2	0.488	28.377	35.430	20.934	9.892	4.672	2.163
CAR	0-2	0.483	11.485	19.234	11.067	5.189	2.430	1.113
MIN	0-2	0.483	5.888	14.512	8.400	3.945	1.854	0.848
BAL	1-1	0.474	31.444	35.883	19.870	8.900	3.968	1.827
NYG	0-2	0.470	13.322	18.239	10.020	4.550	2.069	0.920
WAS	0-2	0.466	13.183	17.068	9.107	4.091	1.842	0.812
SF	1-1	0.465	9.552	26.291	15.145	6.788	3.071	1.349
PIT	0-2	0.454	11.097	13.659	6.759	2.882	1.229	0.542
CLE	0-2	0.447	10.027	12.211	5.901	2.479	1.043	0.452
JAC	0-2	0.439	5.987	8.328	4.046	1.670	0.690	0.294

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]