One day I'll write up a clearer explanation, but for now, here's my attempt 2 years ago. In essence, I assign a strength to each team based on their points scored and points allowed, simulate the rest of the season using those strengths, and report their chances of reaching each playoff round.
In week 1, the team with the biggest win is always atop the projections, and Kansas City benefited from a complete domination of Jacksonville. Even though Seattle and Detroit are currently stronger teams than New Orleans, the NFC South is currently a weaker division, increasing New Orleans' chances of making the playoffs, and ultimately making them the NFC favorite. These won't hold up for long, so there's no sense in any deep analyses. Let's just see the numbers.
| TEAM | Record | Strength | Div | Plyff | WC | Qtr | Semi | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1-0 | 0.531 | 38.331 | 54.749 | 39.764 | 20.976 | 11.050 | 5.814 |
| MIA | 1-0 | 0.527 | 34.050 | 52.982 | 38.343 | 20.026 | 10.410 | 5.427 |
| DEN | 1-0 | 0.522 | 34.257 | 51.260 | 36.518 | 18.899 | 9.771 | 5.053 |
| TEN | 1-0 | 0.522 | 32.848 | 50.809 | 36.186 | 18.693 | 9.633 | 4.980 |
| SEA | 1-0 | 0.521 | 32.442 | 51.388 | 36.555 | 18.932 | 9.802 | 5.027 |
| DET | 1-0 | 0.515 | 38.266 | 53.133 | 37.449 | 19.146 | 9.774 | 4.952 |
| NO | 1-0 | 0.513 | 45.272 | 55.322 | 38.380 | 19.535 | 9.930 | 5.016 |
| IND | 1-0 | 0.510 | 29.073 | 46.535 | 32.194 | 16.209 | 8.144 | 4.108 |
| PHI | 1-0 | 0.509 | 36.686 | 50.288 | 34.625 | 17.483 | 8.812 | 4.416 |
| SF | 1-0 | 0.509 | 28.017 | 47.066 | 32.505 | 16.399 | 8.276 | 4.147 |
| DAL | 1-0 | 0.507 | 35.481 | 49.207 | 33.695 | 16.935 | 8.499 | 4.239 |
| CHI | 1-0 | 0.506 | 33.048 | 47.659 | 32.857 | 16.486 | 8.259 | 4.113 |
| STL | 1-0 | 0.505 | 28.465 | 46.526 | 31.873 | 15.966 | 8.002 | 3.982 |
| HOU | 1-0 | 0.505 | 28.197 | 45.568 | 31.247 | 15.559 | 7.733 | 3.864 |
| NE | 1-0 | 0.504 | 28.055 | 46.041 | 31.612 | 15.733 | 7.812 | 3.898 |
| NYJ | 1-0 | 0.503 | 26.404 | 43.433 | 29.631 | 14.690 | 7.264 | 3.618 |
| TB | 0-1 | 0.497 | 21.054 | 30.202 | 18.946 | 9.315 | 4.580 | 2.240 |
| BUF | 0-1 | 0.496 | 11.491 | 23.579 | 14.740 | 7.195 | 3.511 | 1.723 |
| SD | 0-1 | 0.495 | 13.947 | 23.808 | 14.810 | 7.238 | 3.538 | 1.733 |
| ARI | 0-1 | 0.495 | 11.077 | 23.178 | 14.367 | 7.035 | 3.448 | 1.677 |
| CIN | 0-1 | 0.494 | 28.489 | 34.656 | 21.196 | 10.245 | 4.948 | 2.417 |
| NYG | 0-1 | 0.493 | 14.098 | 24.261 | 14.912 | 7.269 | 3.545 | 1.720 |
| GB | 0-1 | 0.491 | 16.197 | 25.698 | 15.933 | 7.739 | 3.756 | 1.814 |
| WAS | 0-1 | 0.491 | 13.735 | 23.759 | 14.539 | 7.056 | 3.423 | 1.652 |
| OAK | 0-1 | 0.490 | 13.465 | 22.985 | 14.131 | 6.830 | 3.307 | 1.606 |
| ATL | 0-1 | 0.487 | 16.284 | 25.022 | 15.063 | 7.236 | 3.481 | 1.667 |
| MIN | 0-1 | 0.485 | 12.490 | 22.924 | 13.941 | 6.680 | 3.204 | 1.529 |
| CAR | 0-1 | 0.479 | 17.390 | 24.368 | 14.359 | 6.788 | 3.209 | 1.514 |
| PIT | 0-1 | 0.478 | 24.488 | 29.096 | 16.733 | 7.819 | 3.655 | 1.729 |
| BAL | 0-1 | 0.478 | 24.206 | 28.872 | 16.618 | 7.758 | 3.621 | 1.712 |
| CLE | 0-1 | 0.473 | 22.818 | 27.527 | 15.667 | 7.244 | 3.351 | 1.570 |
| JAC | 0-1 | 0.469 | 9.882 | 18.100 | 10.609 | 4.886 | 2.252 | 1.045 |
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