Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 16, Final

Seattle over Denver

San Francisco grabbed a playoff spot with their win last night, so the final NFC slot is down to New Orleans and Arizona. If they both win or both lose, New Orleans is in on the tiebreaker. New Orleans could be their division champ as well with a Carolina loss. Seattle still hasn't clinched their division, but is the favorite to win the Superbowl. If they do win the division, with either a win or a San Francisco loss, they'll definitely have a first round bye, and their chances should jump a bit. As I mentioned yesterday, Chicago plays Green Bay, and Dallas plays Philadelphia, with the winners getting division titles and the losers out of the playoffs.

In the AFC, 5 spots are spoken for - though not necessarily their seeding - leaving 4 teams to fight it out for 1 spot. Those 4 are Miami, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and San Diego. San Diego is probably in better position than my rankings indicate, because the Chiefs have nothing but pride to play for, and a game without injuries in worth way more than pride when it comes to the playoff game the following week. I'll be rooting for things to go Pittsburgh's way, meaning losses by the other 3 teams.

By the time the late games kick off, Miami or Baltimore could already own the spot, or it could be San Diego's to win, or, in the event Miami and Baltimore both win, San Diego could determine who gets in but not have any chance themselves, thanks to the jumble of teams currently at 8-7. If Miami and Baltimore win, but San Diego loses, Baltimore is in. But, a San Diego win makes it a 3-way tiebreaker and Miami wins. There would thus be much meaning in the KC-SD game, despite neither team really having anything to gain or lose in it.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
SEA	12-3	0.824	88.224	+	98.092	63.968	39.661	25.812
CAR	11-4	0.775	89.558	+	97.404	61.222	29.528	17.096
SF	11-4	0.762	11.776	+	78.833	36.365	18.289	10.273
DEN	12-3	0.751	+	+	+	61.915	35.970	16.558
KC	11-4	0.742	-	+	63.432	33.080	18.713	8.400
CIN	10-5	0.710	+	+	71.138	38.335	18.721	7.671
NO	10-5	0.675	10.442	93.438	63.812	22.763	8.493	3.863
NE	11-4	0.672	+	+	87.344	42.383	18.642	6.868
ARI	10-5	0.622	-	6.562	3.718	0.964	0.332	0.132
PHI	9-6	0.604	58.908	58.908	23.067	7.338	2.104	0.802
SD	8-7	0.591	-	7.055	2.874	0.952	0.364	0.107
IND	10-5	0.572	+	+	44.890	15.974	5.488	1.525
DET	7-8	0.538	-	-	-	-	-	-
DAL	8-7	0.515	41.092	41.092	11.809	2.831	0.652	0.197
STL	7-8	0.504	-	-	-	-	-	-
PIT	7-8	0.492	-	9.306	2.950	0.736	0.216	0.047
MIA	8-7	0.489	-	58.841	18.856	4.657	1.352	0.294
GB	7-7-1	0.471	51.712	51.712	11.885	2.348	0.509	0.136
BAL	8-7	0.466	-	24.798	8.517	1.970	0.534	0.108
CHI	8-7	0.454	48.288	48.288	11.381	2.201	0.431	0.110
TEN	6-9	0.451	-	-	-	-	-	-
BUF	6-9	0.427	-	-	-	-	-	-
MIN	4-10-1	0.353	-	-	-	-	-	-
ATL	4-11	0.339	-	-	-	-	-	-
TB	4-11	0.333	-	-	-	-	-	-
CLE	4-11	0.332	-	-	-	-	-	-
OAK	4-11	0.296	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYG	6-9	0.290	-	-	-	-	-	-
WAS	3-12	0.282	-	-	-	-	-	-
NYJ	7-8	0.277	-	-	-	-	-	-
HOU	2-13	0.229	-	-	-	-	-	-
JAC	4-11	0.173	-	-	-	-	-	-

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 2, Sunday)

First to 20% chance of Superbowl Win: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 25% chance of Superbowl Win: Seattle (Week 15, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Seattle (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 99% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 8, Sunday)

First to 99.9% chance of Playoffs: Kansas City (Week 9, Sunday)

First to 99.99% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to 99.999% chance of Playoffs: Denver (Week 13, Sunday)

First to clinch a Playoff berth: Seattle (Week 13, Final)
First to clinch a First Round Bye: Denver (Week 16, Sunday)

First team eliminated: Atlanta (Week 12, Final)

[Week 1]
[Week 2, Thursday]
[Week 2, Sunday]
[Week 2, Final]
[Week 3, Thursday]
[Week 3, Sunday]
[Week 3, Final]
[Week 4, Thursday]
[Week 4, Sunday]
[Week 4, Final]
[Week 5, Thursday]
[Week 5, Sunday]
[Week 5, Final]
[Week 6, Thursday]
[Week 6, Sunday]
[Week 6, Final]
[Week 7, Thursday]
[Week 7, Sunday]
[Week 7, Final]
[Week 8, Thursday]
[Week 8, Sunday]
[Week 8, Final]
[Week 9, Thursday]
[Week 9, Monday]
[Week 9, Final]
[Week 10, Thursday]
[Week 10, Sunday]
[Week 10, Final]
[Week 11, Thursday]
[Week 11, Sunday]
[Week 11, Final]
[Week 12, Thursday]
[Week 12, Sunday]
[Week 12, Final]
[Week 13, Thursday]
[Week 13, Sunday]
[Week 13, Final]
[Week 14, Thursday]
[Week 14, Sunday]
[Week 14, Final]
[Week 15, Thursday]
[Week 15, Sunday]
[Week 15, Final]
[Week 16, Sunday]