Superbowl XLVIII Projection, Week 9, Sunday

Kansas City over Seattle

Seattle eked out an overtime, win and Carolina won convincingly, but Seattle is still in the better position at 8-1. Still, if the two of them played, I'd have to pick Carolina. Pretty soon I'm going to have to increase my number of simulations, because on my initial shorter run I thought Tampa Bay might be eliminated from the NFC South already. But, their number just never came up in the first million simulations, which is not a good sign for them. Clearly, they could get to 8-8, and Carolina (5-3), New Orleans (6-2), and Atlanta (2-6) could all be held to 7 wins or less. But, it appears to be unlikely on the order of a million to one.

Tonight, if Chicago can beat Green Bay, there will be a 3-way tie for the NFC North.

TEAM	Record	Strength	Div	Plyff	WC	Qtr	Semi	Champ
KC	9-0	0.714	77.216	99.911	91.294	57.670	35.461	20.801
CAR	5-3	0.689	46.358	73.787	53.725	31.543	17.901	9.730
SEA	8-1	0.664	81.704	98.941	89.557	50.010	27.246	14.049
DEN	7-1	0.648	22.602	95.204	63.026	31.128	16.194	8.301
SF	6-2	0.637	18.165	83.433	53.613	26.901	13.661	6.641
NO	6-2	0.633	53.605	80.193	58.379	30.377	15.068	7.255
NE	7-2	0.616	91.935	95.624	69.448	34.327	15.498	7.415
IND	6-2	0.613	87.589	93.204	67.585	33.047	14.836	7.044
CIN	6-3	0.608	85.731	89.241	58.543	27.849	12.435	5.838
GB	5-2	0.591	61.821	75.156	51.558	23.256	10.459	4.587
DAL	5-4	0.585	82.160	83.038	42.947	19.204	8.532	3.692
SD	4-4	0.537	0.181	16.041	7.082	2.523	1.005	0.401
DET	5-3	0.536	27.156	53.213	28.700	11.247	4.456	1.718
TEN	4-4	0.513	12.232	39.617	17.758	6.200	2.274	0.855
CHI	4-3	0.511	11.021	20.774	9.861	3.592	1.348	0.488
BAL	3-5	0.491	4.999	8.915	3.505	1.151	0.405	0.144
PHI	4-5	0.489	12.923	16.924	6.588	2.290	0.812	0.278
MIA	4-4	0.473	4.409	24.355	9.765	3.004	1.001	0.341
ARI	4-4	0.469	0.128	8.660	3.286	1.072	0.367	0.119
CLE	4-5	0.443	8.670	16.612	5.833	1.681	0.520	0.163
ATL	2-6	0.422	0.037	0.208	0.071	0.021	0.006	0.002
WAS	3-5	0.420	4.385	4.883	1.504	0.436	0.129	0.037
STL	3-6	0.420	0.003	0.215	0.069	0.020	0.006	0.002
BUF	3-6	0.409	0.596	2.538	0.773	0.191	0.055	0.016
PIT	2-6	0.398	0.600	1.052	0.300	0.074	0.020	0.006
MIN	1-7	0.393	0.001	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
OAK	3-5	0.391	0.001	2.746	0.809	0.186	0.050	0.014
NYJ	5-4	0.377	3.061	14.124	4.055	0.923	0.235	0.061
HOU	2-6	0.361	0.179	0.814	0.223	0.047	0.012	0.003
TB	0-8	0.358	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
NYG	2-6	0.350	0.532	0.570	0.139	0.032	0.008	0.002
JAC	0-8	0.266	0.001	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

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