A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers". As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated. The BCS rules state margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that. I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength. I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop. So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001. I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings. It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking.
Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schools. I then filter the final results to only the 124 FBS schools.
In week 1, there are only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (aka, Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week!
This year there are 4 new FBS teams, for a total of 124:
Massachusetts
South Alabama
Texas State
UTSA
On to the meaningless week 1 rankings.
| 1 | South Carolina | 1-0 |
| 1 | Kent State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Wake Forest | 1-0 |
| 1 | Indiana | 1-0 |
| 1 | Minnesota | 1-0 |
| 1 | Bowling Green | 1-0 |
| 1 | Ball State | 1-0 |
| 1 | UCF | 1-0 |
| 1 | Middle Tennessee | 1-0 |
| 1 | Utah | 1-0 |
| 1 | Tulane | 1-0 |
| 1 | Ole Miss | 1-0 |
| 1 | San Jose State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Fresno State | 1-0 |
| 1 | USC | 1-0 |
| 1 | Army | 1-0 |
| 1 | Michigan State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Miami (FL) | 1-0 |
| 1 | Texas Tech | 1-0 |
| 1 | Houston | 1-0 |
| 1 | Arizona | 1-0 |
| 1 | Ohio State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Wisconsin | 1-0 |
| 1 | Georgia Tech | 1-0 |
| 1 | Boston College | 1-0 |
| 1 | West Virginia | 1-0 |
| 1 | Illinois | 1-0 |
| 1 | Cincinnati | 1-0 |
| 1 | Florida | 1-0 |
| 1 | Maryland | 1-0 |
| 1 | North Carolina State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Texas A&M | 1-0 |
| 1 | Air Force | 1-0 |
| 1 | Oklahoma State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Notre Dame | 1-0 |
| 1 | Michigan | 1-0 |
| 1 | Penn State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Virginia | 1-0 |
| 1 | Northern Illinois | 1-0 |
| 1 | Oregon | 1-0 |
| 1 | Arkansas | 1-0 |
| 1 | Duke | 1-0 |
| 1 | Alabama | 1-0 |
| 1 | Eastern Michigan | 1-0 |
| 1 | Tennessee | 1-0 |
| 1 | Oklahoma | 1-0 |
| 1 | Auburn | 1-0 |
| 1 | Missouri | 1-0 |
| 1 | East Carolina | 1-0 |
| 1 | North Texas | 1-0 |
| 1 | Marshall | 1-0 |
| 1 | Arkansas State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Texas State | 1-0 |
| 1 | Troy | 1-0 |
| 1 | Western Kentucky | 1-0 |
| 1 | Baylor | 1-0 |
| 1 | Clemson | 1-0 |
| 1 | Texas | 1-0 |
| 1 | Nebraska | 1-0 |
| 1 | UTSA | 1-0 |
| 1 | LSU | 1-0 |
| 1 | Washington | 1-0 |
| 1 | UCLA | 1-0 |
| 1 | Northwestern | 1-0 |
| 1 | Louisville | 1-0 |
| 1 | Colorado | 1-0 |
| 1 | Florida State | 1-0 |
| 68 | Akron | 0-1 |
| 68 | Syracuse | 0-1 |
| 68 | Rutgers | 0-1 |
| 68 | Brigham Young | 0-1 |
| 68 | Iowa | 0-1 |
| 68 | Hawaii | 0-1 |
| 68 | North Carolina | 0-1 |
| 68 | Louisiana-Lafayette | 0-1 |
| 68 | Virginia Tech | 0-1 |
| 68 | Western Michigan | 0-1 |
| 68 | Oregon State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Florida Atlantic | 0-1 |
| 68 | UNLV | 0-1 |
| 68 | Southern Methodist | 0-1 |
| 68 | Kansas State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Buffalo | 0-1 |
| 68 | Utah State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Louisiana-Monroe | 0-1 |
| 68 | Massachusetts | 0-1 |
| 68 | Washington State | 0-1 |
| 68 | South Florida | 0-1 |
| 68 | Tulsa | 0-1 |
| 68 | Idaho | 0-1 |
| 68 | Miami (OH) | 0-1 |
| 68 | Purdue | 0-1 |
| 68 | Southern Miss | 0-1 |
| 68 | UAB | 0-1 |
| 68 | Kentucky | 0-1 |
| 68 | Toledo | 0-1 |
| 68 | Georgia | 0-1 |
| 68 | New Mexico State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Florida International | 0-1 |
| 68 | Wyoming | 0-1 |
| 68 | San Diego State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Louisiana Tech | 0-1 |
| 68 | Iowa State | 0-1 |
| 68 | New Mexico | 0-1 |
| 68 | Rice | 0-1 |
| 68 | South Alabama | 0-1 |
| 68 | TCU | 0-1 |
| 68 | Vanderbilt | 0-1 |
| 68 | Boise State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Nevada | 0-1 |
| 68 | California | 0-1 |
| 68 | Mississippi State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Ohio | 0-1 |
| 68 | Connecticut | 0-1 |
| 68 | Colorado State | 0-1 |
| 68 | Temple | 0-1 |
| 68 | Pittsburgh | 0-1 |
| 68 | Central Michigan | 0-1 |
My team chose to play Bama...0-1 we are.
ReplyDeleteMatt, I sent an email your way. Let me know if you got it. Thanks
ReplyDelete