2013-09-02

NCAA Football Power Rankings, Week 1

It's time again to see if I can beat the BCS at picking out the best FBS football teams.

A few years ago, I thought to myself, "I could do a better job than some of the BCS computers".  As I recall, at the time I felt Mizzou was underrated.  The BCS rules state margin of victory cannot be used, so I thought I'd stick to that.  I put together a convergence algorithm, in which I initially rank the teams by record (so all the undefeated teams start tied at #1), then calculate each team's strength of schedule based on the current rankings of its opponents, and re-sort based on that strength.  I run through this process until 2 consecutive iterations give the same result, or there is a loop.  So, if iteration 10,002 gives the same rankings as iteration 10,000, then each subsequent iteration would fluctuate between the rankings in 10,000 and 10,001.  I average those rankings to come up with the final rankings.  It is still possible - but generally unlikely - that teams can tie for a final ranking.

Due to most teams playing other teams in lower divisions at times, and a lack of desire on my part to delve so deeply that I have to track down NAIA schedules, I've decided to count all games listed on ESPN's college football site, which includes all FBS, FCS, and Division II and III schools.  I then filter the final results to only the 124 FBS schools.

In week 1, there are only 2 possible situations for a team. First is to be 1-0, having defeated an 0-1 team. Second is, unsurprisingly, to be a 0-1 team, having lost to a 1-0 team. For this reason, in week 1, all 1-0 teams will be tied for #1, and the rest tied at N+1, where N is the number of #1 teams. Did your team choose to beat up on an FCS (aka, Division 1-AA) team? Congrats, you're #1 this week!

This year there are 4 new FBS teams, for a total of 124:
Massachusetts
South Alabama
Texas State
UTSA

On to the meaningless week 1 rankings.

1South Carolina1-0
1Kent State1-0
1Wake Forest1-0
1Indiana1-0
1Minnesota1-0
1Bowling Green1-0
1Ball State1-0
1UCF1-0
1Middle Tennessee1-0
1Utah1-0
1Tulane1-0
1Ole Miss1-0
1San Jose State1-0
1Fresno State1-0
1USC1-0
1Army1-0
1Michigan State1-0
1Miami (FL)1-0
1Texas Tech1-0
1Houston1-0
1Arizona1-0
1Ohio State1-0
1Wisconsin1-0
1Georgia Tech1-0
1Boston College1-0
1West Virginia1-0
1Illinois1-0
1Cincinnati1-0
1Florida1-0
1Maryland1-0
1North Carolina State1-0
1Texas A&M1-0
1Air Force1-0
1Oklahoma State1-0
1Notre Dame1-0
1Michigan1-0
1Penn State1-0
1Virginia1-0
1Northern Illinois1-0
1Oregon1-0
1Arkansas1-0
1Duke1-0
1Alabama1-0
1Eastern Michigan1-0
1Tennessee1-0
1Oklahoma1-0
1Auburn1-0
1Missouri1-0
1East Carolina1-0
1North Texas1-0
1Marshall1-0
1Arkansas State1-0
1Texas State1-0
1Troy1-0
1Western Kentucky1-0
1Baylor1-0
1Clemson1-0
1Texas1-0
1Nebraska1-0
1UTSA1-0
1LSU1-0
1Washington1-0
1UCLA1-0
1Northwestern1-0
1Louisville1-0
1Colorado1-0
1Florida State1-0
68Akron0-1
68Syracuse0-1
68Rutgers0-1
68Brigham Young0-1
68Iowa0-1
68Hawaii0-1
68North Carolina0-1
68Louisiana-Lafayette0-1
68Virginia Tech0-1
68Western Michigan0-1
68Oregon State0-1
68Florida Atlantic0-1
68UNLV0-1
68Southern Methodist0-1
68Kansas State0-1
68Buffalo0-1
68Utah State0-1
68Louisiana-Monroe0-1
68Massachusetts0-1
68Washington State0-1
68South Florida0-1
68Tulsa0-1
68Idaho0-1
68Miami (OH)0-1
68Purdue0-1
68Southern Miss0-1
68UAB0-1
68Kentucky0-1
68Toledo0-1
68Georgia0-1
68New Mexico State0-1
68Florida International0-1
68Wyoming0-1
68San Diego State0-1
68Louisiana Tech0-1
68Iowa State0-1
68New Mexico0-1
68Rice0-1
68South Alabama0-1
68TCU0-1
68Vanderbilt0-1
68Boise State0-1
68Nevada0-1
68California0-1
68Mississippi State0-1
68Ohio0-1
68Connecticut0-1
68Colorado State0-1
68Temple0-1
68Pittsburgh0-1
68Central Michigan0-1

2 comments:

  1. My team chose to play Bama...0-1 we are.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Matt, I sent an email your way. Let me know if you got it. Thanks

    ReplyDelete